Small Craft Advisory 11, NWS New York, NY

613 
WHUS71 KOKX 212058
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
358 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016

...GALE AND STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...

ANZ355-220500-
/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-160122T1100Z/
/O.EXT.KOKX.SR.A.0001.160123T0600Z-160124T1100Z/
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
358 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...
...STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
  KT THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTH WINDS 30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 55
  KT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FEET SATURDAY AND
  SATURDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF STORM FORCE WINDS OF
48 TO 63 KT HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.  IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OR
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 33 KT AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FT OR HIGHER ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ350-353-220500-
/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-160122T1100Z/
/O.EXT.KOKX.SR.A.0001.160123T0600Z-160124T1700Z/
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
358 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...
...STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
  KT THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTH WINDS 30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 55
  KT SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FEET SATURDAY
  AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF STORM FORCE WINDS OF
48 TO 63 KT HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.  IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OR
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 33 KT AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FT OR HIGHER ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-220500-
/O.EXT.KOKX.GL.A.0003.160123T0600Z-160124T1700Z/
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
358 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016

...GALE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  45 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KT HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

275 
WHUS71 KOKX 220130
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
830 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016

...DANGEROUS CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...

ANZ355-220930-
/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-160122T1100Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.SR.A.0001.160123T0600Z-160124T1100Z/
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
830 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...
...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  25 KT THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTH WINDS 30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS UP 
  TO 55 KT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FEET 
  SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF STORM FORCE WINDS OF
48 TO 63 KT HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.  IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OR
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 33 KT AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FT OR HIGHER ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ350-353-220930-
/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-160122T1100Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.SR.A.0001.160123T0600Z-160124T1700Z/
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
830 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...
...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  25 KT THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTH WINDS 30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS UP 
  TO 55 KT SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FEET 
  SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF STORM FORCE WINDS OF
48 TO 63 KT HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.  IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OR
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 33 KT AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FT OR HIGHER ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-220930-
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.A.0003.160123T0600Z-160124T1700Z/
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
830 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  45 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KT HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

JMC

906 
WHUS71 KOKX 220913
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
413 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016

...DANGEROUS CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-222200-
/O.UPG.KOKX.GL.A.0003.160123T0600Z-160124T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.GL.W.0006.160123T0600Z-160124T1700Z/
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
413 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY. THE
GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 45
  KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FEET ON LONG ISLAND SOUND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 34 TO
47 KT ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE
CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT
IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE
SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ355-222200-
/O.EXT.KOKX.SC.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-160122T1500Z/
/O.UPG.KOKX.SR.A.0001.160123T0600Z-160124T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.SR.W.0001.160123T0600Z-160124T1100Z/
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
413 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY. THE STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  50 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WARNING MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 48 TO
63 KT ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE.
COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD PREPARE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND
DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS...AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR
TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OR
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 33 KT AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FT OR HIGHER ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ350-353-222200-
/O.EXT.KOKX.SC.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-160122T1500Z/
/O.UPG.KOKX.SR.A.0001.160123T0600Z-160124T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.SR.W.0001.160123T0600Z-160124T1100Z/
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
413 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY. THE STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 35 TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 55
  KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WARNING MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 48 TO
63 KT ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE.
COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD PREPARE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND
DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS...AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR
TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OR
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 33 KT AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FT OR HIGHER ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

533 
WHUS71 KOKX 221153
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
653 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016

...DANGEROUS CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-222300-
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0006.160123T0600Z-160124T1700Z/
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
653 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST
SUNDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  45 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FEET ON LONG ISLAND SOUND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 34 TO
47 KT ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE
CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT
IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE
SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ350-353-355-222300-
/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-160122T1500Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.SR.W.0001.160123T0600Z-160124T1100Z/
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
653 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...
...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 35 TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  55 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WARNING MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 48 TO
63 KT ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE.
COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD PREPARE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND
DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS...AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR
TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OR
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 33 KT AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FT OR HIGHER ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

597 
WHUS71 KOKX 221443
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
943 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016

...DANGEROUS CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...

ANZ350-353-355-222300-
/O.CAN.KOKX.SC.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-160122T1500Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.SR.W.0001.160123T0600Z-160124T1100Z/
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
943 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 35 TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  55 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WARNING MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 48 TO
63 KT ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE.
COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD PREPARE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND
DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS...AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR
TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE.

&&

$$

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-222300-
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0006.160123T0600Z-160124T1700Z/
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
943 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST
SUNDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  45 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FEET ON LONG ISLAND SOUND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 34 TO
47 KT ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE
CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT
IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE
SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1010 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. A NOREASTER WILL IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST DATABASE WERE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF OBSERVED VALUES.

WEAK BACKSIDE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING. INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A BREEZY NW FLOW BETWEEN NE
CANADA LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. FEW-SCT
CU POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY NW OF NYC AS PASSING
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTERACTS WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM LAKE
STREAMERS. TEMPS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE TODAY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S.

POTENTIAL FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT ACROSS
OUTLYING PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOWS
WELL DOWN INTO THE TEENS ACROSS PINE BARRENS AND INTERIOR
VALLEYS...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.

THEN CALM BEFORE THE STORM ON FRIDAY...WITH LIGHT N/NE WINDS AND
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RUN SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW SEASONABLE FRI...IN THE LOWER 30S TO 35.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONFIDENCE BUILDING WITH POTENTIAL NOR'EASTER TO IMPACT THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND.

THE REGION WILL FIND ITSELF BETWEEN 1030 MB HIGH LOCATED NORTH OF NY
STATE AND LOW PRES DEEPENING AS IT MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIP SHIELD SLOWLY MOVES NORTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH THE FIRST FLAKES FALLING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT
AND DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ZONES.

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
GLOBAL MODELS...THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE LOW TRACKING EAST OF THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY MORNING
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE
LOW THE PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DEPARTING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE
OH VALLEY.

MAIN QUESTIONS REGARDING THE STORM WILL BE FOCUSED ON HOW FAR NORTH
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE ABLE TO TRACK AND WHERE SNOW BANDING
WILL SET UP. 00Z/21 GFS HAS ABOUT 1/4 INCH MORE TOTAL LIQUID
EQUIVALENT QPF (ALMOST 1") COMPARED TO THE 00Z/21 ECMWF (ABOUT 3/4"
LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF)...AND HAS PRECIP SPREAD FURTHER
INLAND...WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS A SHARPER CUTOFF ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL BE RESOLVED CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
LATEST NAM SEEMS OVERDONE IN TERMS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF AT
ALMOST 3" ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AND AROUND 1" INLAND. WILL FOLLOW
CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WITH ABOUT 1-1.5" LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA AND UP TO 1/2" LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
INLAND.

PRECIP STARTS OUT AS ALL SNOW...AND REMAINS SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE
EVENT. HOWEVER...WITH SOME WARMER AIR POSSIBLY BECOMING ENTRAINED
ALOFT LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A RAIN/SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS NYC AND LONG ISLAND.
THIS COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS IN THOSE
LOCATIONS...BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE IN THE
END OVERALL.

BASED ON LATEST TEMP FORECAST AND LATEST QPF FORECAST...AM GOING
WITH A FORECAST OF 8-12" SNOW FOR NE NJ...NYC..LONG ISLAND...AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. ORANGE AND PUTNAM
COUNTIES SHOULD BE ON THE LOW END...WITH 4-6" OF SNOW...AND
EXPECTING 6-8" FOR SOUTHERN CT. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CHANGE BASED ON
TRACK AND POSITION OF THE LOW. IF MIXING OCCURS...THEN THOSE
LOCATIONS WILL FIND THEMSELVES ON THE LOWER END OF THE FORECAST
TOTAL. IF BANDING SETS UP...THEN THOSE AREAS WILL BE ON THE HIGHER
END OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS.

THE OTHER MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE STRONG AND
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS. A TIGHT NORTHEAST PRES GRADIENT DEVELOPS
BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH. IN ADDITION...60-70 KT
LLJ PASSES ACROSS NYC AND LONG ISLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR 50-60 MPH WINDS
ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF NE NJ...NYC...AND LONG ISLAND WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH INLAND.

AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED WATCHES FOR MUCH OF THE TRI-
STATE AREA. A BLIZZARD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF NE
NJ...NYC...AND LONG ISLAND DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW WITH
VSBYS EXPECTED TO BE 1/4 MILE OR LESS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG
WINDS. FOR THE REST OF NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR UP TO 8" OF SNOW ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH.

SNOW WINDS DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING AND TAPERS OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUN
NIGHT INTO MON. THERE ARE THEN SOME DIFFERENCES THAT ARISE IN THE
GLOBAL MODELS WITH THE PHASING OF PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET. THE 12Z ECMWF VERSUS THE
GFS IS MORE CONSOLIDATED WITH THE ENERGY AND SENDS THE LONGWAVE
TROF TO THE EAST A BIT FASTER. THIS RESULTS IN TIMING ISSUES OF A
THE MAIN COLD FRONT...WHICH PASSES ACROSS THE AREA TUE EVENING
WITH THE ECMWF...WHILE THE GFS SENDS MULTIPLE WEAK COLD FRONTS
THROUGH THE REGION TUE INTO WED. THE RETURN TO COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPS IS DELAYED BY ABOUT 24H WITH THE GFS. FOR THE TIME...USED A
BLEND OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND DELAYED THE THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD
AIR AS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. DURING THIS TIME...TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

AS FOR ANY PCPN...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT WITH
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT TRACKS NW OF
THE AREA. FOR THE MOST PART...THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX INLAND.
RIGHT NOW QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST. NW WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS UP T0 THE LOW 20S. GUSTS SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING.

SEE OUTLOOK BELOW FOR DETAILS ON SATURDAY'S BLIZZARD.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL AVERAGE RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC THROUGH THE DEPARTURE BANK, BUT COULD BRIEFLY DRIFT 10
DEGREES OR SO LEFT IN THE 19-22Z TIME FRAME. SOME GUSTS INTO THE
LOWER 20S.

HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL AVERAGE RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC THROUGH THE DAY. SOME GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20S.

HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL AVERAGE JUST RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY, BUT COULD BRIEFLY DRIFT 20
DEGREES OR SO LEFT IN THE 19-22Z TIME FRAME. SOME GUSTS INTO THE
LOWER 20S.

HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO AMENDMENTS SCHEDULED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI...VFR.
.SAT/SAT NGT...IFR...SN DEVELOPS NY METRO AND LI BY SUNRISE - LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY/SOUTHERN CT BY LATE MORNING. COULD BE SLIGHTLY LATER
ONSET TIMES. +SN SAT AFTN/EVE WITH BELOW AIRFIELD MINIMUMS LIKELY IN
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN NY METRO AND LI...LESS SN NORTH. NE WND 20-30
G 40-50 KT. HIGH TIDE AT JFK 8 PM/LGA 1130...COASTAL FLOODING OF
RUNWAYS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..BUT MONITORING.
.SUNDAY...BECOMING VFR. N WND GUSTS 25-30 KT.
.MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERSISTENT NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE
OVER NE CANADA. GENERALLY SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME...BUT POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SCA CONDS ON OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY
INTO THU NIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.

CALM BEFORE THE STORM ON FRIDAY...WITH RELATIVELY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES NORTH OF THE WATERS.

PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS RAPIDLY FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN HIGH PRES NORTH OF NY STATE AND DEEPENING
LOW PRES MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND PASSING SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND SATURDAY BEFORE DEPARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

IN ADDITION...60-70 KT LLJ WILL PASS OVER THE OCEAN WATERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING.

AS A RESULT...CONDS QUICKLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS ON THE WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT GALES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN AND NY HARBOR
WATERS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. GALES WILL THEN
DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS GOING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN
STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS BY LATE SATURDAY
MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...CAN EXPECT 50-55
KT WIND GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND 35-45 KT ON THE
SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS. FOR NOW...HAVE ISSUED A STORM WATCH FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND A GALE WATCH FOR ALL
OTHER WATERS FOR THE SAME TIME FRAME.

THE PURPOSE OF ISSUING THE HEADLINES THAT FAR OUT IS TO MINIMIZE
CONFUSION WITH MULTIPLE HEADLINES IN A RAPIDLY CHANGING EVENT...AS
WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO GO FROM AROUND 20 KT TO 50-55 KT ON THE
OCEAN WATERS IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS.

CONDS DIMINISH TO SCA LEVELS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP BY SUN NIGHT WITH LINGERING HIGH SEAS
POSSIBLE INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO MEASURABLE PRECIP EXPECTED THRU FRIDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF EVENT FROM AROUND
1/2" QPF ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TO UP TO 1.5" LIQUID EQUIVALENT
QPF ACROSS COASTAL ZONES FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE LOWEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN ORANGE COUNTY AND THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NYC AND LONG ISLAND.

THIS WILL MOSTLY FALL AS SNOW...WITH MINIMAL HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THESE AMOUNTS...WITH A CHANGE
IN STORM TRACK OF EVEN 10-25 MILES POSSIBLY HAVING AN IMPACT ON THE
AMOUNT OF QPF THAT OCCURS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A POWERFUL NOR'EASTER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MULTIPLE EPISODES OF
COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE SAT INTO SUN.

THE TIDES OF PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUE TO BE SAT MORNING AND
PARTICULARLY SAT EVE/NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL GALE TO STORM FORCE
NE WINDS PILING WATER ALONG THE COAST.

POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1 1/2 TO 2 FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AND 2 1/4 TO 3 FT FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
WITH THE SAT MORNING HIGH TIDE. PREFERENCE IS TO TAKE AN AVERAGE OF
BIAS CORRECTED ESTOFS/ETSS AND STEVENS SURGE GUIDANCE...WEIGHTED
TOWARDS THE HIGHER ESTOFS. ETSS AND STEVENS GUIDANCES APPEAR TO BE
TOO LOW BASED ON 040-050 NE WINDS RAMPING UP TO GALE THROUGH THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE. BASED ON THESE EARLY NUMBERS WIDESPREAD MINOR TO
LOCALIZED MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO...WITH BETWEEN 1 1/2 TO 3 FT OF SURGE.

FOR THE SAT EVENING HIGH TIDE...POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 2 TO 2
1/2 FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...AND 3 TO 4 FT FOR
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. MODEL GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND
COLLABORATED ON NE GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS UNTIL THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE WITH WINDS/SURGE POSSIBLY PEAKING DURING LOW TIDE SAT AFTERNOON
AT 3 TO 5 FT. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH THE WINDS BEGIN TO BACK AS WE
APPROACH THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AND HOW MUCH THE SURGE FALLS. THE
TENDENCY IS FOR MODELS TO UNDERESTIMATE THE NORTHWARD BACKING OF
WINDS DURING INTENSE NOR'EASTERS TRACKING TO THE SE OF LI...WHICH
IN TURN ACTS TO REDUCE SURGE ALONG THE TRI-STATE AREA. ONCE AGAIN
AT THIS POINT...PREFERENCE IS TO TAKE AN AVERAGE OF BIAS CORRECTED
ESTOFS/ETSS AND STEVENS SURGE GUIDANCE...WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE
HIGHER ESTOFS. BASED ON THESE EARLY NUMBERS...POTENTIAL CONTINUES
FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING...WITH BETWEEN 2 1/2 TO 4
1/4 FT OF SURGE AT HIGH TIDE. THIS SURGE RANGE MATCHES FAIRLY
WELL WITH SIMILAR COASTAL STORM ANALOGS...AND THE RANGE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO BE NARROWED AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
STORM EVOLUTION.

THE MOST VULNERABLE AREAS TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
ALONG WESTERN/CENTRAL HALF OF LI SOUND...SOUTHERN BAYS OF WESTERN
LI AND NYC...AND THE TRADITIONALLY VULNERABLE PORTIONS OF NY
HARBOR...NEWARK BAYS...AND LOWER REACHES OF HACKENSACK AND
PASSAIC. NOTE...LOCALIZED MAJOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF LI...WHERE ONLY 3 1/2 FT OR SURGE IS
NEEDED FOR MAJOR FLOOD IMPACTS IN THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCALES.
ELSEWHERE IT WOULD TAKE 5 TO 6 FT OF SURGE TO REACH MAJOR FLOODING
LEVELS...WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED.

JUST FOR REFERENCE...BASED ON LOCAL IMPACT CATALOGS...A SURGE OF
CLOSE TO 5+ FT WOULD BE NEEDED SAT EVE FOR START OF IMPACTS AT
LGA. A SURGE OF 4+ FT INTO JAMAICA BAY FOR START OF IMPACTS AT
JFK. BOTH OF THESE SCENARIOS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

IN ADDITION TO SURGE POTENTIAL...AN EASTERLY SWEEP OF 8 TO 12 FT
SURF WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR DUNE TOE EROSION ALONG ALL ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED OVERWASH FOR THE BARRIER
BEACHES FROM FIRE ISLAND AND POINTS WEST ON SAT/SAT NIGHT. THIS
IS BASED ON USGS COASTAL CHANGE HAZARDS MODELING FOR A GALE FORCE
NOR- EASTER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ067>071.
     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ002-004-103-104.
     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NJZ006-105>108.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPS/NV
NEAR TERM...JM/MPS/NV
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JP/JST
MARINE...MPS/NV
HYDROLOGY...MPS/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
414 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016

CTZ009>012-220915-
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-
414 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS STORM
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW...STRONG WINDS...AND MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

NJZ104-NYZ071-220915-
EASTERN BERGEN-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
414 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WATCH.

MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE SATURDAY EVENING
HIGH TIDE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

NJZ006-106-108-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-220915-
HUDSON-EASTERN ESSEX-EASTERN UNION-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
414 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   BLIZZARD WATCH.

MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE SATURDAY MORNING
AND MORESO THE SATURDAY EVENING HIGH TIDES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

NJZ002-004-103-NYZ067>070-220915-
WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-ORANGE-PUTNAM-
ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
414 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

  WINTER STORM WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

NJZ105-107-220915-
WESTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-
414 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

  BLIZZARD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

CTZ005>008-220915-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-
414 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS STORM
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ350-353-355-220915-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
414 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016

...STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

  STORM WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-220915-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
414 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WATCH.

A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE STORM FORCE WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.