Blizzard Watch 1, NWS New York, NY

043 
WWUS41 KOKX 212102
WSWOKX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
402 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016

...NOREASTER TO IMPACT THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS WEEKEND...

NJZ006-105>108-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-220515-
/O.CON.KOKX.BZ.A.0001.160123T1100Z-160124T1800Z/
HUDSON-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-
NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
402 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...THE FIVE BOROUGHS OF NEW YORK CITY...COASTAL 
  PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...AND LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW ALONG WITH STRONG AND POTENTIALLY 
  DAMAGING WINDS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. ISOLATED
  GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TIMING...SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TRAVEL DUE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AND 
  STRONG WINDS WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS LIKELY. SECONDARY AND 
  TERTIARY ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE. STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN 
  POWER LINES AND TREE LIMBS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DANGEROUS.

&&

$$

NJZ002-004-103-104-NYZ067>071-220515-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.A.0001.160123T1100Z-160124T1800Z/
WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
402 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND THE 
  LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 8 INCHES. HIGHEST
  ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW
  JERSEY...AND LOWEST OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OVER THE LOWER HUDSON
  VALLEY.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* TIMING...SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND 
  SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW 
  WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG WINDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

MALOIT

948 
WWUS41 KOKX 220355
WSWOKX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1055 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016

...NOREASTER TO IMPACT THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS WEEKEND...

NJZ006-105>108-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-221200-
/O.CON.KOKX.BZ.A.0001.160123T1100Z-160124T1800Z/
HUDSON-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-
NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
1055 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...THE FIVE BOROUGHS OF NEW YORK CITY...COASTAL 
  PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...AND LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW ALONG WITH STRONG AND POTENTIALLY 
  DAMAGING WINDS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. 
  ISOLATED GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TIMING...SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TRAVEL DUE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AND 
  STRONG WINDS WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS LIKELY. SECONDARY AND 
  TERTIARY ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE. STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN 
  POWER LINES AND TREE LIMBS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DANGEROUS.

&&

$$

NJZ002-004-103-104-NYZ067>071-221200-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.A.0001.160123T1100Z-160124T1800Z/
WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
1055 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND THE 
  LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 8 INCHES. HIGHEST 
  ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW 
  JERSEY...AND LOWEST OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OVER THE LOWER 
  HUDSON VALLEY.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* TIMING...SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND 
  SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW 
  WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG WINDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

336 
WWUS41 KOKX 220918
WSWOKX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
418 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016

...NOR'EASTER TO IMPACT THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS WEEKEND...

NJZ006-105>108-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-221730-
/O.UPG.KOKX.BZ.A.0001.160123T1100Z-160124T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.BZ.W.0001.160123T0900Z-160124T1700Z/
HUDSON-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-
NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
418 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST
SUNDAY. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...THE FIVE BOROUGHS OF NEW YORK CITY...COASTAL 
  PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...AND LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW ALONG WITH STRONG AND POTENTIALLY
  DAMAGING WINDS. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH NEAR ZERO
  VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TIMING...SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TRAVEL DUE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AND 
  STRONG WINDS WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS LIKELY. SECONDARY AND 
  TERTIARY ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE. STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN 
  POWER LINES AND TREE LIMBS.

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

&&

$$

NJZ002-004-103-104-NYZ071-221730-
/O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0001.160123T1100Z-160124T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0001.160123T1100Z-160124T1800Z/
WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
418 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO
1 PM EST SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND THE 
  LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TIMING...SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND 
  SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW 
  WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG WINDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...
AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

CTZ005>012-221730-
/O.EXA.KOKX.WS.A.0001.160123T1100Z-160124T1800Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-
418 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND THE 
  LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 6 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TIMING...SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND 
  SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW 
  WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG WINDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

NYZ067>070-221730-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.A.0001.160123T1100Z-160124T1800Z/
ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
418 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND THE 
  LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TIMING...SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND 
  SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW 
  WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG WINDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

MPS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1235 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
THURSDAY THEN BUILDS EAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE
SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE FCST REMAINS ON TRACK TNGT WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE. LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. WHILE
THERE IS SOME LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS...THE SUB CLOUD LAYER IS VERY DRY AND WILL LIKELY
ONLY SUPPORT SOME FLURRIES. WEAK COLD ADVECTION ENSUES WITH THE
PASSING OF THE DISTURBANCE.

ON THU...WEAK RIDGING BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET SENDING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SE
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WITH A CONTINUED FEED OF POLAR AIR. IN
FACT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL CANADA
WILL BEGIN TO BLEED EAST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES LAYING DOWN THE
FOUNDATION FOR COLD AIR AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE TN VALLEY THU NIGHT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE A BIT COOLER IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...WITH
LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S BOTH THU AND FRI MORNINGS. THIS
IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUE TO MONITOR A COASTAL LOW THAT WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND THIS WEEKEND. QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN ON THE EXACT
TRACK...BOTH IN TERMS OF HOW FAR NORTH THE STORM GOES AND
TIMING...AND STRENGTH OF THE STORM. ESPECIALLY NOTING REGION WILL BE
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD OF THE STORM...THIS
IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BY
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN TRACKS EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE STORM SYSTEM THEN TOTAL OCCLUDES AS
IT TRACKS TO THE SOUTH AND MAYBE SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND INTO
SUNDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE PACE AT WHICH THE CUT OFF LOW AND THEN
OCCLUSION TRACK TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS
IN DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW. WHAT THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON IS THAT
A 1030 HPA HIGH BUILDS INTO S QUEBEC/ONTARIO BY 12Z SATURDAY...AND
THAT THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG AS IT RETREATS TO THE
NORTHEAST  TO KEEP A SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR FEEDING DOWN INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE STORM. AS A RESULT...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY
MIXING WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW
DURING THE EVENT.

THE MODELS HAVE IN GENERAL SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING WITH THE SYSTEM.
IT APPEARS THAT RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO KEEP THINGS DRY FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING...WITH SNOW DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE FRIDAY NIGHT. EVEN THEN
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW RAPIDLY SNOW PUSHES NE INTO THE
CWA...WITH SOME POSSIBILITY THAT MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE CWA DOES
NOT RECEIVE ANY SNOWFALL UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.

CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT THE STORM WILL BRING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION INTO ALL BUT NORTHERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE TRI-
STATE...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ON SATURDAY IN THOSE
AREAS. SATURDAY NIGHT HAVE LIKELY POPS EVERYWHERE...TAPERING OFF TO
CHANCE OVER FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPPER
OFF OVER MOST AREAS SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER DO LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER THE EASTERN 2/5THS OF THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS ALSO INCREASING IN THE IDEA THAT MOST...IF NOT ALL OF
THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WILL RECEIVE AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF
SNOW...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY...WHERE RAIN
MIXING IN COULD LIMIT AMOUNTS. FARTHER NORTH...IT IS BECOMING MORE
CERTAIN THAT AN ADVISORY LEVEL (3-6 INCH RANGE) SNOWFALL SHOULD
OCCUR...EXCEPT FOR ACROSS FAR N PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY/SW CT...WHERE 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS STILL IN QUESTION...BUT
DEFINITELY POSSIBLE. EVEN IN THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA...WARNING
LEVEL SNOWS ARE STILL WITHIN THE REASONABLE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES
FOR THIS SYSTEM. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...AND THAT MOST...IF NOT ALL
THE SNOW WILL NOT START FALLING UNTIL SATURDAY...HAVE DECIDED NOT
TO ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WITH THIS ISSUANCE.

NEXT ISSUE WITH THIS STORM WILL BE THE WINDS. WITH 950-850 HPA WINDS
OF 45-60 KT FORECAST FROM AREAS AROUND LONG ISLAND SOUND AND MOST OF
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WIND ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS (SUSTAINED WINDS 31-39 MPH FOR AT LEAST ONE HOUR OR ANY
GUST OF 46-57 MPH) COULD OCCUR WITH THIS STORM IN THIS AREA...FROM
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
THAT WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS COULD OCCUR ELSEWHERE IN THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL
CHANCE THAT HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED OVER
PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND POSSIBLY NYC AND COASTAL SE CT. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY THOUGH OVER THE TRACK/TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE
STORM...HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE ANY WIND RELATED HEADLINES WITH
THIS STORM.

WITH THESE WINDS AND THE EXPECTATION OF SNOWFALL...BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL OVER AREAS RECEIVING MAINLY SNOWFALL
AND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
POSSIBILITY...AND COULD REFLECT IN ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
WHICH ARE ISSUED IN THE FUTURE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY-SUNDAY SHOULD RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS. LOWS
SHOULD RUN BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUN
NIGHT INTO MON. THERE ARE THEN SOME DIFFERENCES THAT ARISE IN THE
GLOBAL MODELS WITH THE PHASING OF PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET. THE 12Z ECMWF VERSUS THE
GFS IS MORE CONSOLIDATED WITH THE ENERGY AND SENDS THE LONGWAVE
TROF TO THE EAST A BIT FASTER. THIS RESULTS IN TIMING ISSUES OF A
THE MAIN COLD FRONT...WHICH PASSES ACROSS THE AREA TUE EVENING
WITH THE ECMWF...WHILE THE GFS SENDS MULTIPLE WEAK COLD FRONTS
THROUGH THE REGION TUE INTO WED. THE RETURN TO COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPS IS DELAYED BY ABOUT 24H WITH THE GFS. FOR THE TIME...USED A
BLEND OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND DELAYED THE THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD
AIR AS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. DURING THIS TIME...TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

AS FOR ANY PCPN...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT WITH
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT TRACKS NW OF
THE AREA. FOR THE MOST PART...THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX INLAND.
RIGHT NOW QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST.

NW WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT OVERNIGHT. NW WINDS INCREASE THURSDAY 10 TO
15 KT WITH GUSTS UP T0 20 KT. GUSTS SUBSIDE THURSDAY EVENING.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW FLURRIES AFTER 06Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY...VFR.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...CHC SUB-VFR AND SNOW LATE. NE GUSTS 25KT LATE.
.SAT/SAT NIGHT...SNOW DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING...POSSIBLY BECOMING
HEAVY AT TIMES WITH IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS. NE WINDS AT 20-30 KT
WITH 40-50 KT GUSTS.
.SUNDAY...CHC SUB-VFR AND SNOW AM. VFR PM. N GUSTS 25-30 KT.
.MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERSISTENT NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND
CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE OVER NE CANADA. GENERALLY SUB SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...BUT POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SCA CONDS
ON OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY INTO THU NIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
JUST BELOW 25 KT...SO WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME ON ISSUING A SCA.

A RELATIVELY RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SHOULD
PRODUCE WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS ON FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES FAIRLY RAPIDLY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH GALE CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING ON THE OCEAN AND SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE NON-OCEAN
WATERS BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 950-850 WINDS INCREASING TO 50-
60KT OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MARGINAL TO
DECENT LOW LEVEL MIXING POSSIBLE...GUSTS TO STORM FORCE ARE LIKELY
ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THEN...WITH GUSTS TO GALES LIKELY AND
STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.

WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY AS THE STORM DEPARTS...WITH WINDS FALLING TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON ALL...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY FAR EASTERN
ZONES...BY LATE SUNDAY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP BY SUN NIGHT WITH LINGERING HIGH SEAS
POSSIBLE INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO MEASURABLE PRECIP EXPECTED TONIGHT-FRIDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FROM AROUND 4/10THS TO AROUND 1 INCH
OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF TO FALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER LONG ISLAND/NEW YORK CITY AND LOWEST AMOUNTS
OVER ORANGE COUNTY. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THESE
AMOUNTS...WITH A CHANGE IN STORM TRACK OF EVEN 10-25 MILES
POSSIBLY HAVING QUITE AN IMPACT ON THE AMOUNT OF QPF WHICH OCCURS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A NOR'EASTER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES
OF HIGH TIDE FOR PORTIONS OF THIS WEEKEND. THE MOST VULNERABLE HIGH
TIDE WOULD BE THE SATURDAY NIGHT CYCLE.

FOR SATURDAY MORNING STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY RESULT IN
AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. AROUND 1 1/2 TO 2 FT ANOMALIES
ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS ARE NEEDED.  FOR MODERATE CSTL
FLOODING...2 TO 3 FT ARE NEEDED. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN MODERATE
BENCHMARKS BEING REACHED IN THE MORNING.

FOR THE SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE...ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS
ARE ABOUT A HALF A FOOT LOWER THAT THE MORNING HIGH TIDES.
HOWEVER...STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS THAT WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY WILL
PILE WATER ALONG OUR SHORES...AND LARGE ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED.
AROUND 2 TO 2 1/2 FEET ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR CSTL
FLOODING...AND 3 TO 4 FT ABOVE ARE NEEDED FOR MODERATE CSTL FLOODING.

AT THIS TIME...MAINLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING MAJOR
FLOODING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN THIS OCCURRING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE STORM WILL BE PULLING AWAY AND WINDS SHOULD
BACK TO THE NORTH...WHICH IS NOT AN IDEAL WIND DIRECTION FOR COASTAL
FLOODING. RESIDUAL CSTL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT WITH LITTLE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...JMC/DW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1256 PM EST WED JAN 20 2016

CTZ009>012-NJZ006-104-106-108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-211800-
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-HUDSON-EASTERN BERGEN-EASTERN ESSEX-
EASTERN UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
1256 PM EST WED JAN 20 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS
STORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW...STRONG WINDS...AND MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

CTZ005>008-NJZ002-004-103-105-107-NYZ067>070-211800-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
1256 PM EST WED JAN 20 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS
STORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-211800-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
1256 PM EST WED JAN 20 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE STORM FORCE WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.