Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
101 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A pretty wet pattern will move in today and keep chances for rain
in the forecast through next Wednesday. A more zonal flow pattern
north of the region will allow a series of shortwaves to bring
waves of precip chances to the area through early next week before
the strong upper high arrives towards the end of the long term
forecast. The first wave today will likely produce stronger
thunderstorms off to the west that may move into western TN later
today. Showers and thunderstorms look to develop this morning and
continue across the area during the day today ahead of the
stronger storms to the west. However, there is some decent
instability over our area with MUCAPE values to around 4000 J/kg,
but deep layer shear is quite weak. Still, will not rule out a
couple of storms today having the potential for strong wind gusts,
locally heavy rain, and even some hail with the strength of the
mid level instability.

Chances for precip will diminish slightly overnight as the mid
state is between shortwaves, but will still have chance pops in
overnight. Friday will see an increase in pops as the next
shortwave axis crosses the MS River Valley around mid day. As the
upper shortwave trough exits the region slowly Friday and early
Saturday, rain chances will begin to decrease during the day
Saturday. Currently have mainly dry conditions Saturday night, and
slight chances of precip on Sunday but models have been trending
drier on Sunday, so if that trend continues we may see dry
conditions hold Sunday.

Early Monday will be dry but models bring in chances for showers
and thunderstorms later in the day on Monday. An upper trough
coming off the Great Lakes region looks to be strong enough to
kick off some convection over the area late Monday and again
during the afternoon on Tuesday. The strong upper high over the
Great Plains begins to take hold on the mid state later on
Wednesday, so have dry conditions for the remainder of the
forecast thereafter. Both the GFS and ECMWF have a very strong
500 mb high around 600 dm that slowly slides its way eastward
during the later part of next week. For now, the very warm 850 mb
temps around 25-30C stay out west of our area, but would not be
surprised if next Friday has high temperatures in the mid to upper
90s across the mid state if models are correct with the strong 500
mb high.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Thunderstorm complex moving through Middle Tennessee at this time.
Currently leading edge of the line of convection pretty much
running north to south along interstate 65. Base velocities along
the line have been occasionally in the 40 knot range with isolated
tree or two down with line passage. Line will continue to work
eastward this afternoon with trailing showers and isolated storms
75 miles west of the line. Am expecting some fog tonight at
terminals and may have to go lower than currently forecast in
terms of visibility.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......04
AVIATION........01/Boyd

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
455 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-151000-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON-
HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-
JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-
MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-
COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
455 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY FOR THOSE ALONG
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS PRIOR TO 3 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS FOR ALL OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY TODAY AND TOMORROW.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >=1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

27

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1252 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

TNZ027-028-062-141815-
DAVIDSON TN-WILSON TN-RUTHERFORD TN-
1252 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DAVIDSON...
NORTHWESTERN RUTHERFORD AND SOUTHWESTERN WILSON COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM
CDT...

AT 1252 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR LA VERGNE...OR 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF MURFREESBORO...MOVING EAST
AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEBANON...SMYRNA...LA VERGNE...MOUNT JULIET...WALTERHILL...
BELINDA CITY...RURAL HILL...CEDARS OF LEBANON STATE PARK...
GLADEVILLE AND PERCY PRIEST LAKE.

LAT...LON 3594 8658 3611 8664 3624 8631 3598 8621
TIME...MOT...LOC 1752Z 252DEG 23KT 3605 8653

ROSE

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