Severe Thunderstorm Warning 173, NWS Nashville, TN

964 
WWUS54 KOHX 141643
SVSOHX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1143 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

TNC161-141700-
/O.CON.KOHX.SV.W.0173.000000T0000Z-160714T1700Z/
STEWART TN-
1143 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT FOR
CENTRAL STEWART COUNTY...

AT 1142 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
DOVER...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DOVER...BIG ROCK...INDIAN MOUND AND LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3644 8795 3661 8801 3666 8787 3666 8785
      3663 8785 3664 8773 3647 8768
TIME...MOT...LOC 1642Z 253DEG 25KT 3655 8790 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

ROSE

595 
WWUS54 KOHX 141658
SVSOHX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1158 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

TNC161-141708-
/O.EXP.KOHX.SV.W.0173.000000T0000Z-160714T1700Z/
STEWART TN-
1158 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL STEWART COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT NOON CDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3644 8795 3661 8801 3666 8787 3666 8785
      3663 8785 3664 8773 3647 8768
TIME...MOT...LOC 1656Z 254DEG 22KT 3655 8790 

$$

ROSE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
652 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A pretty wet pattern will move in today and keep chances for rain
in the forecast through next Wednesday. A more zonal flow pattern
north of the region will allow a series of shortwaves to bring
waves of precip chances to the area through early next week before
the strong upper high arrives towards the end of the long term
forecast. The first wave today will likely produce stronger
thunderstorms off to the west that may move into western TN later
today. Showers and thunderstorms look to develop this morning and
continue across the area during the day today ahead of the
stronger storms to the west. However, there is some decent
instability over our area with MUCAPE values to around 4000 J/kg,
but deep layer shear is quite weak. Still, will not rule out a
couple of storms today having the potential for strong wind gusts,
locally heavy rain, and even some hail with the strength of the
mid level instability.

Chances for precip will diminish slightly overnight as the mid
state is between shortwaves, but will still have chance pops in
overnight. Friday will see an increase in pops as the next
shortwave axis crosses the MS River Valley around mid day. As the
upper shortwave trough exits the region slowly Friday and early
Saturday, rain chances will begin to decrease during the day
Saturday. Currently have mainly dry conditions Saturday night, and
slight chances of precip on Sunday but models have been trending
drier on Sunday, so if that trend continues we may see dry
conditions hold Sunday.

Early Monday will be dry but models bring in chances for showers
and thunderstorms later in the day on Monday. An upper trough
coming off the Great Lakes region looks to be strong enough to
kick off some convection over the area late Monday and again
during the afternoon on Tuesday. The strong upper high over the
Great Plains begins to take hold on the mid state later on
Wednesday, so have dry conditions for the remainder of the
forecast thereafter. Both the GFS and ECMWF have a very strong
500 mb high around 600 dm that slowly slides its way eastward
during the later part of next week. For now, the very warm 850 mb
temps around 25-30C stay out west of our area, but would not be
surprised if next Friday has high temperatures in the mid to upper
90s across the mid state if models are correct with the strong 500
mb high.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR conditions will start out this TAF cycle however, a line of
showers and thunderstorms is expected to move into the area later
this morning. This will drive down flight categories for several
hours at each mid-state terminal. IFR vis can be expected with
some of the heavier rain before improving to MVFR with light rain
then back to VFR by late this afternoon. Timing is based on latest
Hi-Res guidance, so it may need to be tweaked as the storms move
closer. Southwest winds will range from 8 to 10 kts, but if a TS
moves over a terminal, a gust of 25 to 30 kts will be possible.

VFR conditions this evening may fall back to IFR with reduced
visibilities near sunrise Friday morning at KCKV and KCSV.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......Barnwell
AVIATION........Unger

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
455 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-151000-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON-
HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-
JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-
MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-
COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
455 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY FOR THOSE ALONG
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS PRIOR TO 3 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS FOR ALL OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY TODAY AND TOMORROW.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >=1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

27

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1037 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

TNZ024-025-056-057-141600-
DICKSON TN-PERRY TN-HICKMAN TN-HUMPHREYS TN-
1037 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN DICKSON...NORTHEASTERN
PERRY...SOUTHEASTERN HUMPHREYS AND WESTERN HICKMAN COUNTIES UNTIL
1100 AM CDT...

AT 1036 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR MCEWEN TO 8 MILES NORTH OF LINDEN.
MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DICKSON...CENTERVILLE...BURNS...CHARLOTTE...LOBELVILLE...NUNNELLY...
PINEWOOD AND BUCKSNORT.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3611 8759 3626 8718 3625 8719 3624 8718
      3625 8718 3623 8717 3621 8719 3621 8718
      3569 8755 3565 8792
TIME...MOT...LOC 1536Z 252DEG 19KT 3607 8757 3573 8782

ROSE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1057 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

TNZ025-057-141630-
DICKSON TN-HICKMAN TN-
1057 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN DICKSON AND NORTHEASTERN
HICKMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 AM CDT...

AT 1057 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES NORTH OF CENTERVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DICKSON...WHITE BLUFF...BURNS...NUNNELLY...LYLES...
PINEWOOD AND BON AQUA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3595 8756 3597 8753 3599 8753 3602 8755
      3603 8755 3613 8722 3600 8719 3598 8719
      3597 8721 3594 8720 3586 8722 3584 8758
      3595 8761
TIME...MOT...LOC 1557Z 258DEG 20KT 3594 8752

ROSE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1123 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

TNZ023>025-141700-
DICKSON TN-HOUSTON TN-HUMPHREYS TN-
1123 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DICKSON...
SOUTHEASTERN HOUSTON AND NORTHEASTERN HUMPHREYS COUNTIES UNTIL NOON
CDT...

AT 1123 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR MCEWEN...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ERIN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MCEWEN...CHARLOTTE...VANLEER AND SLAYDEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3626 8774 3634 8753 3632 8740 3632 8737
      3613 8731 3609 8768
TIME...MOT...LOC 1623Z 254DEG 15KT 3620 8762

ROSE