Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1145 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...
WITH COVERAGE INCREASING ESPECIALLY AFTER 08Z. IMPULSE OUT TO OUR
WEST WILL MOVE EAST THE REST OF THE NIGHT. STRONGEST STORMS MOST
LIKELY ACROSS KANSAS AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CONVECTION TONIGHT. EARLY AFTERNOON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES POTENT MID LEVEL CYCLONE OVER ERN
MT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ALLOW
AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE FA. LATEST OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE WRN CWA CONTS TO
DESTABILIZE WITH AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
INDICATES THAT SCT TSRA ARE DVLPG ALNG THE COLD FRONT FROM S-CTNRL
SD INTO CNTRL NEB. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THESE TSRA WILL SHIFT EWD THIS EVNG INTO OUR WRN
FA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL AROUND 30 KT AND INSTABILITY
DECREASES WITH EWD EXTEND...BUT APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
ORGANIZATION TO THE THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL
THREAT. THIS INITIAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN DURING
THE MID EVNG AS WE LOSE INSOLATION...BUT LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL BE INCREASING BEHIND THE SFC BOUNDARY AND SHOULD LEAD
TO AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW ISO TSRA OVERNIGHT
REACHING SOUTHWEST AROUND 12Z. GENERALLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY BE OVER AN INCH IN A GOOD PART OF ERN
NEB...ESPECIALLY IN A BAND FROM AROUND LCG TO OLU AND SOUTH TO
LNK. THIS LIKELY WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE AREA RIVERS THAT ARE
RUNNING HIGH OR IN MINOR FLOOD...BUT RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH LESS THAN LAST NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY SIGNIFICANT
LIMIT FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL...AND GIVEN THE OVERALL AMOUNTS
WILL LIKELY NOT LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS.

THIS COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL TEND TO LINGER IN
SOUTHWEST IA THROUGH 15Z...BUT ONCE THIS PUSHES TO THE EAST WE
WILL LIKELY SEE A DRY PERIOD FOR THE REST OF WED INTO FRIDAY. WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOV THROUGH ON FRIDAY AND WILL INCLUDE A SCHC POP FOR
A FEW SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

THE WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE
EXTNDD FORECAST. A SYSTEM DOES MOV INTO THE WESTERN US LATE IN THE
WEEK AND MOVS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
MUCH OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR FA WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY NERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW. TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE PRETTY COOL WITH
SOME FROST EVEN POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN CWA WITH TMPS IN THE MID
30S. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS
DROPPING INTO THE MVFR RANGE...AND PROBABLY TO IFR AT LEAST
BRIEFLY IN THUNDERSTORMS. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CEILINGS
SHOULD IMPROVE AS IMPULSE AND LIFT MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA BY
MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...MILLER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
445 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-111145-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
445 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG A COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE
PRIMARILY THIS EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE. A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND COULD LINGER IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

FOBERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
113 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

NEZ053-067-110630-
CASS NE-SARPY NE-
113 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL CASS AND CENTRAL
SARPY COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM CDT...

AT 113 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
CEDAR CREEK...OR 15 MILES SOUTH OF OMAHA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BELLEVUE...PAPILLION...LA VISTA...SPRINGFIELD...LOUISVILLE...CEDAR CREEK...
OFFUTT AFB AND CAMP MAHA.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 75 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 79 AND 82.

LAT...LON 4096 9613 4108 9626 4119 9609 4118 9593
      4107 9591
TIME...MOT...LOC 0613Z 229DEG 23KT 4106 9612

DEWALD

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
246 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

NEZ051>053-110815-
DOUGLAS NE-SAUNDERS NE-SARPY NE-
246 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN DOUGLAS...EASTERN
SAUNDERS AND NORTHWESTERN SARPY COUNTIES UNTIL 315 AM CDT...

AT 246 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
MEAD...OR 22 MILES WEST OF OMAHA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHWESTERN OMAHA...GRETNA...VALLEY...YUTAN...WATERLOO...ELKHORN...
MILLARD...BENNINGTON...BOYS TOWN...LESHARA...TWO RIVERS STATE RECREATION
AREA AND CHALCO.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 HIGHWAY 275 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 157 AND 167.
 HIGHWAY 92 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 462 AND 466.
 INTERSTATE 80 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 435 AND 440.

LAT...LON 4108 9642 4131 9643 4139 9652 4139 9614
      4111 9613
TIME...MOT...LOC 0746Z 255DEG 24KT 4120 9644

DEWALD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
258 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

NEZ051>053-110815-
DOUGLAS NE-SAUNDERS NE-SARPY NE-
258 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN DOUGLAS...NORTHEASTERN
SAUNDERS AND NORTHWESTERN SARPY COUNTIES UNTIL 315 AM CDT...

AT 258 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
INGLEWOOD TO 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF GRETNA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHWESTERN OMAHA...GRETNA...VALLEY...YUTAN...WATERLOO...ELKHORN...
MILLARD...BENNINGTON...BOYS TOWN...LESHARA...TWO RIVERS STATE RECREATION
AREA AND CHALCO.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 HIGHWAY 275 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 157 AND 167.
 HIGHWAY 92 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 459 AND 466.
 INTERSTATE 80 IN NEBRASKA NEAR MILE MARKER 440.

LAT...LON 4139 9614 4115 9613 4115 9639 4139 9652
TIME...MOT...LOC 0758Z 245DEG 34KT 4139 9645 4119 9631

DEWALD