River Flood Warning 15, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1145 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...
WITH COVERAGE INCREASING ESPECIALLY AFTER 08Z. IMPULSE OUT TO OUR
WEST WILL MOVE EAST THE REST OF THE NIGHT. STRONGEST STORMS MOST
LIKELY ACROSS KANSAS AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CONVECTION TONIGHT. EARLY AFTERNOON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES POTENT MID LEVEL CYCLONE OVER ERN
MT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ALLOW
AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE FA. LATEST OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE WRN CWA CONTS TO
DESTABILIZE WITH AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
INDICATES THAT SCT TSRA ARE DVLPG ALNG THE COLD FRONT FROM S-CTNRL
SD INTO CNTRL NEB. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THESE TSRA WILL SHIFT EWD THIS EVNG INTO OUR WRN
FA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL AROUND 30 KT AND INSTABILITY
DECREASES WITH EWD EXTEND...BUT APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
ORGANIZATION TO THE THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL
THREAT. THIS INITIAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN DURING
THE MID EVNG AS WE LOSE INSOLATION...BUT LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL BE INCREASING BEHIND THE SFC BOUNDARY AND SHOULD LEAD
TO AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW ISO TSRA OVERNIGHT
REACHING SOUTHWEST AROUND 12Z. GENERALLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY BE OVER AN INCH IN A GOOD PART OF ERN
NEB...ESPECIALLY IN A BAND FROM AROUND LCG TO OLU AND SOUTH TO
LNK. THIS LIKELY WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE AREA RIVERS THAT ARE
RUNNING HIGH OR IN MINOR FLOOD...BUT RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH LESS THAN LAST NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY SIGNIFICANT
LIMIT FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL...AND GIVEN THE OVERALL AMOUNTS
WILL LIKELY NOT LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS.

THIS COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL TEND TO LINGER IN
SOUTHWEST IA THROUGH 15Z...BUT ONCE THIS PUSHES TO THE EAST WE
WILL LIKELY SEE A DRY PERIOD FOR THE REST OF WED INTO FRIDAY. WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOV THROUGH ON FRIDAY AND WILL INCLUDE A SCHC POP FOR
A FEW SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

THE WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE
EXTNDD FORECAST. A SYSTEM DOES MOV INTO THE WESTERN US LATE IN THE
WEEK AND MOVS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
MUCH OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR FA WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY NERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW. TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE PRETTY COOL WITH
SOME FROST EVEN POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN CWA WITH TMPS IN THE MID
30S. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS
DROPPING INTO THE MVFR RANGE...AND PROBABLY TO IFR AT LEAST
BRIEFLY IN THUNDERSTORMS. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CEILINGS
SHOULD IMPROVE AS IMPULSE AND LIFT MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA BY
MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...MILLER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
445 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-111145-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
445 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG A COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE
PRIMARILY THIS EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE. A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND COULD LINGER IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

FOBERT

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
344 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 AM     HAIL             OMAHA                   41.26N 96.01W
05/11/2016  M1.00 INCH       DOUGLAS            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            114TH AND MAPLE STREET.

&&

CZAPOTOC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
345 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 AM     TSTM WND GST     OMAHA                   41.26N 96.01W
05/11/2016  E60 MPH          DOUGLAS            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            114TH AND MAPLE ST. ESTIMATED WINDS 50 TO 60 MPH.

&&

CZAPOTOC