Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
339 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE
TO OPEN AND BECOME A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN
MISSOURI/WESTERN IOWA BY 06Z TONIGHT. A SMALL EMBEDDED VORT MAX
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEB/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SEEN ON
SATELLITE LOOPS HAS INITIATED SCATTERED TSTMS OVER NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WITH POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL. OTHER
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION AND AGAIN...SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING. BULK SHEAR VALUES REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK AND DESPITE MLCAPE OF AROUND 1000-1500J/KG. EXPECTING
QUICK UPDRAFTS THAT PRODUCE SMALL HAIL BEFORE THEY WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING EAST OF OUR AREA BY
MORNING...WITH QUIET CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY. ANOTHER VORT
LOBE WILL ROTATE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING GIVING THE REGION
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR
AN EWD MOVING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY. SHOWERS MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS DRIFTS EAST OF THE
REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

AREA WILL BE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK WAVE
WILL DROP THROUGH THE FLOW WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY. 850MB TEMPS FLIRT WITH -3C IN OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND SO WILL BE WATCHING SATURDAY MORNING
LOWS CLOSELY FOR ANY SIGN OF FREEZING SFC TEMPS. A 1024MB SFC
HIGH WILL MOVE IN THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WHEN WE HAVE COOL HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. RETURN FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
SET UP AROUND THE HIGH BY LATE SUNDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK MID LEVEL
WAVES ARE FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH INCREASING ZONAL FLOW. WILL
CARRY LOW CONFIDENCE POPS INTO DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

WE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT ALL 3 TAF SITES AT
VARIOUS TIMES. THE SCT NATURE TO THE TSRA WILL CREATE ISSUES FOR
TIMING...BUT DID INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDER IN ALL 3 SITES
BUT TIMING MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED. OTHERWISE SCT TO BKN CU IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SOME OF THIS MAY BE CLOSE TO
THE MVFR RANGE. PRECIP SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA THIS THIS EVNG WITH
CONDS DRY THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME MVFR VISBY TUE MRNG
WITH SOME FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1143 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-100645-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
1143 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
HAZARD. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD TUESDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1108 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

NEZ042-043-091645-
COLFAX NE-PLATTE NE-
1108 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN COLFAX AND EASTERN
PLATTE COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 AM CDT...

AT 1108 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR PLATTE CENTER...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF COLUMBUS...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLUMBUS...DUNCAN...PLATTE CENTER...MONROE...CRESTON...HUMPHREY...TARNOV...
LAKE OCAONEE...COLLEGE VIEW TRAILER PARK...SHELL CREEK ELEMENTARY
SCHOOL...LAKE NORTH BABCOCK CAMPGROUND...CIRCLE H TRAILER PARK AND
CENTRAL COMMUNITY COLLEGE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 HIGHWAY 30 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 372 AND 375.
 HIGHWAY 81 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILEMARKERS 113 AND 136.

LAT...LON 4174 9753 4174 9725 4163 9725 4139 9739
      4139 9760 4140 9760 4140 9769
TIME...MOT...LOC 1608Z 203DEG 29KT 4151 9750

BOUSTEAD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1216 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG GRETNA                  41.14N 96.24W
05/09/2016                   SARPY              NE   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS OF TREE BRANCHES DOWN IN GRETNA.
            DAMAGE OCCURRED FOLLOWING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
            FROM A WAKE LOW PRESSURE.

&&

JB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
127 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

NEZ011-091900-
KNOX NE-
127 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN KNOX COUNTY UNTIL
200 PM CDT...

AT 127 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES SOUTHEAST OF MONOWI...OR 23 MILES EAST OF SPENCER...MOVING NORTH
AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VERDEL.

LAT...LON 4287 9828 4288 9826 4285 9822 4284 9819
      4284 9815 4282 9812 4248 9829 4252 9831
      4272 9830 4288 9831
TIME...MOT...LOC 1827Z 182DEG 9KT 4277 9826

BOUSTEAD

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