Severe Thunderstorm Warning 259, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
259 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016

As expected, a warm front has lifted northward from KS today, now
located across southeast NE through central IA. Conditions have
become very unstable along/south of the boundary with CAPE values
ranging from 500-1500 J/kg and effective shear 50-60 knots.
Additional breaks in the overcast should help destabilize the
atmosphere along and south of the boundary, thus a tornado watch
was just issued that goes through 02z. Latest HRRR model runs
suggest that as the upper impulse moves in from the high plains,
storms will begin to intensify and move in from the west by 4-5
pm then quickly race eastward through the early evening. A couple
of thoughts here, we will be able to cancel counties out of the
tornado watch from west to east much sooner than 02z. Also, the
better tornado threat appears to be along the frontal boundary, in
southeast NE and southwest IA. Areas up to I80, on the northwest
side of the front, including the LNK and OMA metro areas may still
see storms with large hail potential, but the tornado threat
appears a little lower there.

After the rain and severe weather moves out this evening, we
should see clearing skies, and colder air moving in from the west.
Indeed, western NE is seeing snow, and while we won't see that
here, we will see the cooler temperatures. Lows tonight dip into
the lower to mid 30s for portions of eastern NE. Thus a frost
advisory was issued for several counties. Would not be surprised
to see a few favored locations hit 32 for an hour or two, but not
widespread enough to issue a freeze warning.

After a cool day Friday with highs in the lower 60s, we should
see temps rebound into the lower 70s for Saturday and Sunday with
dry weather expected as zonal flow develops across the Plains.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016

Another weak wave moves onto the Plains late Sunday night into
Monday which brings another chance of storms. Dry Tuesday with
zonal flow. Another weak wave and associated cool front moves in
on Tuesday night into Wednesday. GFS is a little further south,
but the new 12Z EC is a little further north. Have precip chances
Wednesday along the KS/NE border, but may have to shift those
northward if models continue to trend further north.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016

Initial round of convection ahead of the warm front should
continue to lift northeast through 19Z or so with additional
storms developing between 20 and 21Z as cold front moves into
the area. KOMA and KLNK most likely to experience a period of
storms during this time. IFR cigs and vsbys also expected with
the storm activity through at least 00z with local LIFR cigs
possible 00Z to 06Z. VFR conditions then develop across the area
after 06Z.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Friday for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>033-042-043-050-065-078.

IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...DeWald
LONG TERM...DeWald
AVIATION...Fobert

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1135 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-070645-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
1135 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE BY MID AFTERNOON AND TEND TO FOCUS FROM SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THE CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY EXTEND INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA.

DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR COUPLED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS. GIVEN THE STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR...A FEW
STORMS MAY BECOME TORNADIC IN NATURE IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA.

FOBERT

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1240 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

IAZ055-069-079-NEZ045-052-053-061815-
MILLS IA-HARRISON IA-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-DOUGLAS NE-WASHINGTON NE-
SARPY NE-
1240 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 1239 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OMAHA TO 3 MILES EAST OF BELLEVUE.
MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OMAHA...COUNCIL BLUFFS...BELLEVUE...LA VISTA...RALSTON...UNDERWOOD...
CARTER LAKE...CRESCENT...MCCLELLAND...LAKE MANAWA STATE PARK...
NARROWS RIVER PARK AND HITCHCOCK NATURE CENTER.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 HIGHWAY 75 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 85 AND 102.
 INTERSTATE 29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 43 AND 74.
 INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 23.
 INTERSTATE 80 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 446 AND 454.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4154 9595 4142 9554 4112 9587 4121 9611
TIME...MOT...LOC 1739Z 213DEG 40KT 4123 9610 4117 9586

ZAPOTOCNY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
244 PM CDT THU OCT 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1225 PM     HAIL             3 ENE SPRINGFIELD       41.10N 96.08W
10/06/2016  E1.25 INCH       SARPY              NE   PUBLIC

            NICKEL TO HALF-DOLLAR SIZED HAIL.

&&

CZAPOTOC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
257 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

NEZ011-012-017-062030-
KNOX NE-CEDAR NE-PIERCE NE-
257 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CEDAR...NORTHEASTERN
PIERCE AND SOUTHEASTERN KNOX COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

AT 257 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4
MILES SOUTH OF OSMOND...OR 19 MILES NORTHWEST OF NORFOLK...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RANDOLPH...OSMOND...WAUSA...COLERIDGE...MAGNET...FOSTER...
MCLEAN AND THE HIGHWAY 81 AND 20 JUNCTION.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 HIGHWAY 81 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILEMARKERS 180 AND 194.
 HIGHWAY 20 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 363 AND 377.

LAT...LON 4223 9754 4228 9769 4264 9754 4253 9718
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 211DEG 44KT 4230 9758

ZAPOTOCNY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
320 PM CDT THU OCT 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0317 PM     HAIL             2 ENE MAGNET            42.47N 97.43W
10/06/2016  M0.88 INCH       CEDAR              NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

VDEWALD