Severe Thunderstorm Warning 175, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
314 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2016

Early afternoon water vapor imagery shows a progressive short-wave
trough over the western Dakotas with a belt of enhanced (40-50+
kt) mid-level flow accompanying this system over South Dakota and
the northern half of Nebraska. This upper-air system will
translate east into the upper Great Lakes by Friday with
rebounding mid-level heights over the northern High Plains. At
the surface, an associated cold front stretching from southwest
Minnesota through central Nebraska as of 19z will advance
southeast into the lower Missouri Valley tonight into Friday
morning.

Though low-level winds have veered to westerly ahead of the cold
front over eastern Nebraska this afternoon, sufficient convergence
along the boundary (likely augmented by the glancing influence of
the Dakotas short-wave trough) has resulted in a broken band of
thunderstorms over northeast Nebraska as of 20z. Strong daytime
heating and a gradually moistening boundary layer in the wake of
last night's MCS are supporting destabilization within the warm
sector with MLCAPE estimated in the 1000-2000 J/kg range as of mid
afternoon. The modest convergence along the front and weakening
large-scale forcing for ascent with southward extent cast
uncertainty on storm coverage through the remainder of the
afternoon into evening. Current thinking is that greatest storm
coverage will exist across northern and possibly eastern portions
of the CWA, in line with latest near-term guidance.

Strengthening flow aloft will compensate for the veered low-level
winds with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized storm modes
and an attendant risk for mainly large hail and damaging winds.
Expect the severe weather threat and precipitation chances to
diminish from northwest to southeast through the remainder of the
afternoon into tonight.

As mentioned above, mid-level heights will build over the north-
central U.S. Friday and Saturday ahead of the next short-wave
trough moving through the Pacific Northwest into northern Rockies.
Outside of a slight chance of thunderstorms over southeast
Nebraska Friday night into early Saturday, it appears that we will
see dry conditions Friday through the weekend. High temperatures
will be near seasonal normals in the mid to upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2016

The 12z runs of the deterministic ECMWF and GFS and GEFS mean
remain in reasonably good agreement in the progression of the
northern Rockies upper low into south-central Canada by Monday
night. Meanwhile, the associated cold front will advance southeast
into the mid Missouri Valley Monday into Monday night where it
will become quasi-stationary through the remainder of the extended
period. Highest precipitation chances will be Monday evening into
Monday night with some severe weather possible. Thereafter, low
chance POPs will continue into the middle of next week owing to
the proximity of the boundary in the area. Near-normal
temperatures will continue.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 18Z Friday)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2016

VFR conditions through the period. Could see thunderstorms at KOFK
21-23z...and KOMA 23-02z.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Mead
LONG TERM...Mead
AVIATION...DeWald

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
437 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-NEZ015-018-031>034-042>045-050>053-067-
081145-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-THURSTON-
WAYNE-MADISON-STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-
BUTLER-SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-CASS-
437 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL END BY LATE EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION. SOME SEVERE
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE AREA
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A CONTINUING CHANCE OF
STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

NEZ011-012-016-017-030-081145-
KNOX-CEDAR-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-BOONE-
437 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION. SOME SEVERE
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE AREA
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A CONTINUING CHANCE OF
STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

IAZ090-091-NEZ065-066-068-078-088>093-081145-
FREMONT-PAGE-SEWARD-LANCASTER-OTOE-SALINE-JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-
NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
437 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA
AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ALONG A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH A RISK FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION. SOME SEVERE
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE AREA
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A CONTINUING CHANCE OF
STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
347 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0344 PM     HAIL             2 ENE WISNER            42.00N 96.87W
07/07/2016  M1.00 INCH       CUMING             NE   STORM CHASER

&&

VDEWALD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
408 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             5 NE PENDER             42.16N 96.64W
07/07/2016  M0.75 INCH       THURSTON           NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

VDEWALD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
435 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0434 PM     HAIL             1 S DECATUR             41.99N 96.25W
07/07/2016  E0.75 INCH       BURT               NE   PUBLIC

            HAIL AROUND DIME TO PENNY SIZE

&&

MILLER