Severe Thunderstorm Warning 164, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1240 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2016

12z upper-air analysis and early afternoon water vapor imagery
indicate a mid-level low over the northern Rockies with a
downstream belt of quasi-zonal flow across the northern and
central Plains. At the surface, a lee cyclone was analyzed over
southeast Montana with an associated baroclinic zone becoming
better defined from the cyclone southeast through central Nebraska
into central Iowa.

Increasing height falls ahead of the northern Rockies low/trough
will combine with moist, upslope flow in the low levels to
initiate scattered storms this afternoon over the High Plains.
Strengthening vertical shear and the presence of a moderately to
strongly unstable air mass in the vicinity of the boundary over
Nebraska will likely support the upscale growth of storms into a
forward-propagating mcs/bow echo which will progress through a
portion of the mid Missouri Valley overnight. Consensus of model
guidance suggests the most likely track of this MCS will be to the
north of the surface boundary across South Dakota and northern
Nebraska where the SPC has highlighted moderate risk for
potentially widespread damaging winds. While this convective
system will be fast moving, the potential for localized flooding
will exist along the southern flank of the MCS where backbuilding
storm development could occur.

The northern Rockies short-wave trough will amplify over the
northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley Thursday into
Thursday night, promoting the southeastward movement of a cold
front through the region. Storm potential along the front will be
dictated by the amount of convective overturning that occurs
across our area tonight into early Thursday. For now, we will
maintain the highest POPs across our eastern counties in closer
proximity to the stronger large-scale forcing for ascent.

A surface ridge will build through the area on Friday with drier
and slightly cooler conditions expected. By Friday night into
Saturday, heights will build aloft, however weak isentropic ascent
to the north of a surface front moving north through the central
Plains may be sufficient to initiate a few storms over southeast
Nebraska.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2016

Mid-level ridging over the north-central U.S. at the onset of the
extended period will shift east in advance of a potent short-wave
trough translating from the Pacific Northwest into the northern
High Plains by early next week. Weak perturbations emerging into
the Plains ahead of the primary trough will maintain a low-
probability chance of thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday
night. Thunderstorm chances and some severe weather potential
then increase Monday into Monday night with the arrival of the
surface cold front. This front will be slow to exit the region
owing to the progression of the parent upper-air system into
south-central Canada. As such, low precipitation chances will
linger through the remainder of the extended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 06Z Friday)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Jul 7 2016

Variable conditions expected through the TAF cycle with ongoing
convection the first first 6 hours. A break in activity is
expected during the later morning to early afternoon hours and
then another shot of storms is expected mid to late afternoon.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Mead
LONG TERM...Mead
AVIATION...Kern

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
710 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

IAZ055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ042>045-050>053-065>068-078-
088>093-071415-
HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-PAGE-
PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-
SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-
PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
710 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EAST INTO THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS NORTH
OF A LINE FROM AROUND ALBION TO SCRIBNER AND LOGAN IOWA.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE ALL POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WHILE ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...A COUPLE OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
STORM CHANCES WILL BE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WHEN SOME SEVERE
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT OR THURSDAY...BUT
PLEASE PASS ALONG ANY REPORTS.

IAZ043-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-071415-
MONONA-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-
710 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ACCELERATE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
NORTH OF A LINE FROM AROUND ALBION TO SCRIBNER AND LOGAN IOWA
BETWEEN AROUND 9 PM AND 3 AM. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WOULD BE THE
MAIN HAZARDS IN THAT TIMEFRAME.

SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THEN LATE TONIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS
LATE TONIGHT.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WHILE ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...A COUPLE OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
STORM CHANCES WILL BE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WHEN SOME SEVERE
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD PASS ALONG ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT.
ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THURSDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
831 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

NEZ011-070230-
KNOX-
831 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

...AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD KNOX COUNTY...

AT 828 PM CDT...AN AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS
LOCATED OVER PARTS OF HOLT AND BOYD COUNTIES OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THESE WERE MOVING EAST AT 40 TO 50 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV
OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4288 9826 4284 9819 4284 9815 4282 9813
      4277 9805 4276 9802 4277 9794 4281 9789
      4286 9787 4287 9783 4286 9781 4245 9779
      4244 9831 4288 9831
TIME...MOT...LOC 0128Z 269DEG 43KT 4279 9880

MILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1149 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 S EMERSON             42.26N 96.73W
07/06/2016  E60 MPH          THURSTON           NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SPOTTER REPORT RELAYED TO EMERGENCY MANAGER. WINDS
            ESTIMATED AT UP TO 60 MPH BRIEFLY WITH INITIAL GUSTS.
            THEN WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH LASTED ANOTHER 10 TO 15
            MINUTES.THIS WAS IN THURSTON COUNTY.

&&

BMILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1203 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 AM     TSTM WND GST     COLUMBUS                41.43N 97.36W
07/06/2016  M60 MPH          PLATTE             NE   AWOS

&&

DERGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1222 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

IAZ043-055-056-NEZ034-045-070545-
SHELBY IA-HARRISON IA-MONONA IA-WASHINGTON NE-BURT NE-
1222 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SHELBY...HARRISON...
SOUTHEASTERN MONONA...SOUTHEASTERN BURT AND NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 AM CDT...

AT 1221 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF UTE TO
3 MILES NORTHWEST OF MONDAMIN...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 HIGHWAY 59 IN IOWA NEAR MILE MARKER 89.
 INTERSTATE 29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 84 AND 95.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...AND EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4154 9569 4170 9622 4215 9567 4186 9567
      4186 9531
TIME...MOT...LOC 0521Z 270DEG 36KT 4207 9565 4176 9606

MILLER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1225 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

IAZ043-055-NEZ033-034-044-045-070615-
HARRISON IA-MONONA IA-DODGE NE-WASHINGTON NE-BURT NE-CUMING NE-
1225 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL HARRISON...
SOUTHWESTERN MONONA...NORTHEASTERN DODGE...SOUTHEASTERN CUMING...BURT
AND NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM CDT...

AT 1225 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTH OF WEST POINT
TO NEAR SCRIBNER...AND MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WEST POINT...TEKAMAH...SCRIBNER...LYONS...UEHLING...CRAIG...
OAKLAND...HERMAN...
DEAD TIMBER STATE RECREATION AREA AND SUMMIT LAKE STATE RECREATION
AREA.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 HIGHWAY 275 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 113 AND 129.
 HIGHWAY 75 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 123 AND 144.
 HIGHWAY 77 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILEMARKERS 129 AND 150.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...AND NORTHEASTERN AND EAST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4197 9617 4161 9609 4166 9676 4194 9677
TIME...MOT...LOC 0525Z 265DEG 55KT 4189 9670 4166 9669

DERGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1241 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

IAZ055-069-NEZ044-045-050>053-070615-
HARRISON IA-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-DODGE NE-DOUGLAS NE-BUTLER NE-
WASHINGTON NE-SAUNDERS NE-SARPY NE-
1241 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN HARRISON...
NORTHWESTERN POTTAWATTAMIE...DOUGLAS...EAST CENTRAL BUTLER...DODGE...
WASHINGTON...NORTHWESTERN SARPY AND SAUNDERS COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM
CDT...

AT 1240 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR HOOPER TO NEAR
WESTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OMAHA...BELLEVUE...FREMONT...PAPILLION...LA VISTA...BLAIR...
RALSTON...WAHOO...GRETNA...VALLEY...ARLINGTON...NORTH BEND...YUTAN...
FORT CALHOUN...SCRIBNER...WATERLOO...HOOPER...CEDAR BLUFFS...
MEAD AND NICKERSON.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...AND EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4109 9596 4118 9706 4167 9674 4163 9598
TIME...MOT...LOC 0540Z 271DEG 42KT 4159 9653 4121 9676

MILLER