Special Weather Statement, NWS Missoula, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
222 PM MDT Sun Jul 17 2016

.DISCUSSION...There is a shortwave approaching the region in
southwesterly flow today that will be the main thunderstorm
producing feature this afternoon. Current high resolution model
guidance show the potential for two waves of thunderstorm today
with the first during this afternoon in north central Idaho and
west central Montana. The second area of thunderstorms may pass
later in the day with a focus farther north through the evening.
There are indications that storms could continue through midnight
north of Interstate 90.

The active southwesterly flow pattern will remain over north
central Idaho and western Montana on Monday so showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to return Monday afternoon. There are
also indications that some of the storms on Monday could be strong
with gusty winds and hail. As of now north central Idaho and into
northwest Montana are forecast to have the most ingredients for
stronger thunderstorms though they are also possible along the
divide.

Tuesday through Thursday pattern will keep a weak frontal
boundary over the Idaho Panhandle and NW Montana resulting in a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Upper level wave
passes through at some point midweek to aid in precip development
in NW Montana. Afterwards, a dry west-to-east zonal flow appears
to establish itself over the northern tier of the US as the
subtropical central US high pressure moves westward. This is a
very typical mid-summer hot and breezy pattern for the northern
Rockies and looks to persist through the remainder of July. /ss

&&

.AVIATION...

The atmosphere is beginning to destabilize this afternoon with
daytime heating and an approaching shortwave. Each run of the HRRR
shows the first area of convection to be a bit more organized and
a little slower on its passage from north central Idaho through
western Montana. The first area of thunderstorms is likely to be
between Grangeville, Salmon, and Butte 17/2100z-17/2300z, followed
by Lookout Pass, Missoula, Deer Lodge 17/2300z-18/0100z, and
finally Libby, Kalispell and Glacier National Park around
18/0100-18/0400z. Cloud cover and a few showers will linger in
northwest Montana and especially through Glacier NP tonight.
Thunderstorms are again forecast to return on Monday and a few of
these could be strong with gusty winds and hail.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
815 PM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016

IDZ005-006-MTZ004-006-180315-
SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS ID-NORTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS ID-
BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS MT-LOWER CLARK FORK REGION MT-
815 PM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN IDAHO...EAST CENTRAL
CLEARWATER...SOUTHEASTERN MINERAL...NORTHWESTERN RAVALLI AND
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOULA COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM MDT/815 PM PDT/...

AT 815 PM MDT/715 PM PDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 26 MILES NORTHEAST OF LOWELL...OR 41 MILES EAST OF
KAMIAH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM IN ADDITION TO BRIEF, HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HIGHWAY 12 CORRIDOR...LOLO HOT SPRINGS...LOLO PASS AND POWELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4630 11523 4648 11543 4689 11460 4655 11426
TIME...MOT...LOC 0215Z 232DEG 39KT 4642 11521

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
849 PM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016

MTZ007-180315-
BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION MT-
849 PM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL POWELL COUNTY UNTIL
915 PM MDT...

AT 849 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13
MILES SOUTH OF LINCOLN...OR 24 MILES EAST OF DRUMMOND...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FINN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4665 11279 4679 11288 4683 11278 4683 11254
      4670 11254
TIME...MOT...LOC 0249Z 242DEG 38KT 4677 11264

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
858 PM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016

IDZ005-006-MTZ003>006-043-180415-
SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS ID-NORTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS ID-
POTOMAC/SEELEY LAKE REGION MT-MISSOULA/BITTERROOT VALLEYS MT-
BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS MT-FLATHEAD/MISSION VALLEYS MT-
LOWER CLARK FORK REGION MT-
858 PM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN IDAHO...EAST CENTRAL
CLEARWATER...SOUTHEASTERN MINERAL...NORTH CENTRAL RAVALLI...SOUTHERN
MISSOULA...SOUTHEASTERN SANDERS AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES UNTIL 1015
PM MDT/915 PM PDT/...

AT 856 PM MDT/756 PM PDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 25 MILES WEST OF FLORENCE...OR 33 MILES NORTHWEST OF
HAMILTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. ADDITIONAL SMALLER, BUT STILL
POTENT, STORM CELLS ARE FILLING IN ACROSS THE BITTERROOT VALLEY AND
HEADING NORTH TOWARDS MISSOULA.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MISSOULA...LOLO...ALBERTON...EVARO...WYE...BONNER-WEST RIVERSIDE...
FRENCHTOWN...FLORENCE...EAST MISSOULA...NINEMILE...CLINTON...TURAH...
HUSON AND LOLO HOT SPRINGS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4650 11436 4677 11474 4721 11429 4681 11356
      4659 11400
TIME...MOT...LOC 0256Z 233DEG 34KT 4662 11461

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
943 PM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0943 PM     HAIL             4 NE FLORENCE           46.67N 114.01W
07/17/2016  M1.00 INCH       MISSOULA           MT   NWS EMPLOYEE

            .

&&

NWS MISSOULA MT
IRIS SYSTEM

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