Special Weather Statement, NWS Missoula, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
222 PM MDT Sun Jul 17 2016

.DISCUSSION...There is a shortwave approaching the region in
southwesterly flow today that will be the main thunderstorm
producing feature this afternoon. Current high resolution model
guidance show the potential for two waves of thunderstorm today
with the first during this afternoon in north central Idaho and
west central Montana. The second area of thunderstorms may pass
later in the day with a focus farther north through the evening.
There are indications that storms could continue through midnight
north of Interstate 90.

The active southwesterly flow pattern will remain over north
central Idaho and western Montana on Monday so showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to return Monday afternoon. There are
also indications that some of the storms on Monday could be strong
with gusty winds and hail. As of now north central Idaho and into
northwest Montana are forecast to have the most ingredients for
stronger thunderstorms though they are also possible along the
divide.

Tuesday through Thursday pattern will keep a weak frontal
boundary over the Idaho Panhandle and NW Montana resulting in a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Upper level wave
passes through at some point midweek to aid in precip development
in NW Montana. Afterwards, a dry west-to-east zonal flow appears
to establish itself over the northern tier of the US as the
subtropical central US high pressure moves westward. This is a
very typical mid-summer hot and breezy pattern for the northern
Rockies and looks to persist through the remainder of July. /ss

&&

.AVIATION...

The atmosphere is beginning to destabilize this afternoon with
daytime heating and an approaching shortwave. Each run of the HRRR
shows the first area of convection to be a bit more organized and
a little slower on its passage from north central Idaho through
western Montana. The first area of thunderstorms is likely to be
between Grangeville, Salmon, and Butte 17/2100z-17/2300z, followed
by Lookout Pass, Missoula, Deer Lodge 17/2300z-18/0100z, and
finally Libby, Kalispell and Glacier National Park around
18/0100-18/0400z. Cloud cover and a few showers will linger in
northwest Montana and especially through Glacier NP tonight.
Thunderstorms are again forecast to return on Monday and a few of
these could be strong with gusty winds and hail.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
536 PM PDT SUN JUL 17 2016

IDZ006>008-180145-
SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS ID-
LOWER HELLS CANYON/SALMON RIVER REGION ID-
OROFINO/GRANGEVILLE REGION ID-
536 PM PDT SUN JUL 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL IDAHO COUNTY UNTIL
645 PM PDT...

AT 536 PM PDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES NORTHWEST OF WHITE BIRD...OR 16 MILES WEST OF GRANGEVILLE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN LOCAL WILDFIRE BURN SCAR
AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GRANGEVILLE...KAMIAH...KOOSKIA...EAST KAMIAH...CLEARWATER...
COTTONWOOD...STITES...FERDINAND...KEUTERVILLE...FENN...HARPSTER...
WINONA AND CANFIELD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4603 11658 4600 11654 4601 11652 4610 11652
      4620 11642 4615 11619 4621 11614 4623 11601
      4630 11612 4623 11599 4614 11570 4587 11607
      4570 11652 4575 11654 4578 11660 4578 11666
      4583 11671 4583 11677
TIME...MOT...LOC 0036Z 212DEG 28KT 4587 11645

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
638 PM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016

MTZ006-007-043-180115-
POTOMAC/SEELEY LAKE REGION MT-BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS MT-
BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION MT-
638 PM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN GRANITE AND CENTRAL
POWELL COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM MDT...

AT 637 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES WEST OF DRUMMOND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DRUMMOND...HELMVILLE...HALL...BEARMOUTH AND NEW CHICAGO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4652 11330 4666 11348 4711 11284 4707 11279
      4683 11280 4683 11273
TIME...MOT...LOC 0037Z 227DEG 37KT 4665 11331

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
804 PM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016

MTZ006-007-180245-
BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS MT-BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION MT-
804 PM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN GRANITE AND SOUTH
CENTRAL POWELL COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM MDT...

AT 804 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES SOUTHWEST OF DRUMMOND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DRUMMOND...GOLDCREEK...HALL...NEW CHICAGO...MAXVILLE...BROCK CREEK
AND JENS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4644 11329 4659 11342 4685 11288 4661 11269
TIME...MOT...LOC 0204Z 241DEG 33KT 4656 11326

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
815 PM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016

IDZ005-006-MTZ004-006-180315-
SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS ID-NORTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS ID-
BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS MT-LOWER CLARK FORK REGION MT-
815 PM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN IDAHO...EAST CENTRAL
CLEARWATER...SOUTHEASTERN MINERAL...NORTHWESTERN RAVALLI AND
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOULA COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM MDT/815 PM PDT/...

AT 815 PM MDT/715 PM PDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 26 MILES NORTHEAST OF LOWELL...OR 41 MILES EAST OF
KAMIAH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM IN ADDITION TO BRIEF, HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HIGHWAY 12 CORRIDOR...LOLO HOT SPRINGS...LOLO PASS AND POWELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4630 11523 4648 11543 4689 11460 4655 11426
TIME...MOT...LOC 0215Z 232DEG 39KT 4642 11521