Alert archive / Montana / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Missoula, MT

July 9, 2016Ravalli County, Montana

NWS Missoula, MT issued this special weather statement at Jul 9, 2016, 8:31 PM MDT for Ravalli County, Montana. It was in force for 44 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 9, 2016, 8:31 PM MDT (02:31 UTC)
Expired: Jul 9, 2016, 9:15 PM MDT
In force: 44 min
Issued by: NWS Missoula, MT

County Ravalli County, MT

The radar

The Missoula radar (KMSX), 131 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Spokane, WA (KOTX), launched 00:00Z, 2.5 hours before the alert went out and 225 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 15 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -8 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1963 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 22 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 24 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 68 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Missoula, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 9, 2:36 PM MDT, 5 hours 55 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 9, 2:36 PM MDT, 5 hours 55 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
236 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY...
...SNOW AT HIGH ELEVATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...

.DISCUSSION...Rain showers with isolated thunderstorms have been
steadily moving across north central Idaho and western Montana
this afternoon. With increasingly unstable conditions expected to
continue through later this evening, further development of
thunderstorms is likely to occur. The best chances will exist
across west central and southwest Montana, as well as most of
Clearwater and Lemhi counties in Idaho. The main concerns continue
to be heavy bursts of rainfall, gusty winds, and lightning. Given
how much cloud cover has been hanging around the region throughout
the day, this may inhibit storms from growing too large or
becoming stronger, but the safest course of action would be to plan
for stormy, quickly-changing conditions.

An unusually cool low pressure system continues to be projected
over the Northern Rockies Sunday and Monday, with widespread
rainfall, very cool daytime temperatures, and even high-elevation
snowfall. Model guidance has had trouble characterizing the path
of the low pressure, as well as depicting the areas to receive the
most precipitation. The latest model runs have favored west
central Montana and portions of southwest Montana for
precipitation amounts, with storm totals in the 1 to 2 inch
range. Snow levels continue to be very low for July during this
event, ranging from 6500 feet along the Continental Divide to 7500
feet along the northern Idaho/Montana border. Hypothermia threat
and low visibility will make for poor outdoor conditions,
particularly at high elevations. Daytime temperatures for Sunday
will be 20+ degrees below the seasonal average.

Scattered showers will continue into Tuesday as an additional
disturbance passes through, with pleasant but still below normal
temperatures. Forecast models lend to moderate confidence that the
middle and latter part of next week will trend toward seasonably
warm temperatures and drier conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...Thunderstorms and heavy bursts of rainfall are likely
through 10/0300Z for KMSO, KBTM, and KSMN today, with isolated
thunder embedded within showers likely for KGPI. Rain will persist
overnight for most locations, particularly across southwest
Montana and central Idaho. By Sunday morning, more widespread,
stratiform rainfall is expected, with high elevation snow causing
persistent, obscured terrain. Ceiling and visibility reductions
will be commonplace throughout the day Sunday into Monday.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 9, 3:53 PM MDT, 4 hours 38 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Jul 9, 5:44 PM MDT, 2 hours 47 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
544 PM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016

MTZ007-100015-
BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION MT-
544 PM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DEER LODGE...EAST
CENTRAL GRANITE AND SOUTH CENTRAL POWELL COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM MDT...

AT 542 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
WEST VALLEY...OR NEAR ANACONDA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DEER LODGE...ANACONDA...WEST VALLEY...GALEN...WARM SPRINGS...
RACETRACK AND LOST CREEK. I-90 NEAR DEER LODGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW! DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER
IN A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

LAT...LON 4608 11303 4623 11317 4655 11260 4638 11247
      4614 11279
TIME...MOT...LOC 2342Z 235DEG 40KT 4620 11301

Special weather statement, Jul 9, 5:45 PM MDT, 2 hours 46 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
445 PM PDT SAT JUL 9 2016

IDZ006>008-100030-
SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS ID-
LOWER HELLS CANYON/SALMON RIVER REGION ID-
OROFINO/GRANGEVILLE REGION ID-
445 PM PDT SAT JUL 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO COUNTY UNTIL
530 PM PDT...

AT 443 PM PDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 19 MILES SOUTH OF WINCHESTER TO 17 MILES
NORTHWEST OF NEW MEADOWS. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 30 MPH.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GRANGEVILLE...KOOSKIA...RIGGINS...WHITE BIRD...EAST KAMIAH...
COTTONWOOD...STITES...KEUTERVILLE...BURGDORF...HARPSTER...
COPPERVILLE...WINONA...CANFIELD...POLLOCK...SLATE CREEK...FENN...
RIGGINS HOT SPRING AND LUCILE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4599 11665 4604 11663 4600 11654 4609 11651
      4617 11627 4615 11619 4621 11615 4621 11604
      4627 11597 4519 11581 4522 11598 4513 11614
      4511 11630 4527 11634 4527 11659 4540 11662
      4562 11646 4575 11654 4580 11668 4599 11672
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 251DEG 28KT 4596 11668 4515 11655

Special weather statement, Jul 9, 5:52 PM MDT, 2 hours 39 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
552 PM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016

MTZ002-100045-
WEST GLACIER REGION MT-
552 PM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL FLATHEAD COUNTY
UNTIL 645 PM MDT...

AT 550 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST GLACIER TO LOGAN PASS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WEST GLACIER...LAKE MCDONALD...APGAR AND CORAM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OR ROCKFALL...ESPECIALLY ON THE GOING TO
THE SUN ROAD WEST OF LOGAN PASS.

&&

LAT...LON 4879 11377 4872 11370 4870 11371 4869 11374
      4867 11373 4865 11375 4862 11375 4859 11366
      4860 11363 4858 11361 4837 11398 4850 11422
      4882 11377
TIME...MOT...LOC 2350Z 225DEG 10KT 4855 11395

Special weather statement, Jul 9, 7:27 PM MDT, 1 hour 4 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
727 PM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016

MTZ004>006-043-100200-
POTOMAC/SEELEY LAKE REGION MT-MISSOULA/BITTERROOT VALLEYS MT-
BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS MT-LOWER CLARK FORK REGION MT-
727 PM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL RAVALLI AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOULA COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM MDT...

AT 725 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF SHOWERS
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES WEST OF LOLO TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF VICTOR.
MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 35 MPH.

BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN BITTERROOT AND
MISSOULA VALLEYS. IN ADDITION...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS. LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MISSOULA...LOLO...STEVENSVILLE...FLORENCE...VICTOR...EAST MISSOULA...
BONNER-WEST RIVERSIDE...TURAH AND BELL CROSSING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4691 11381 4636 11394 4644 11433 4680 11430
TIME...MOT...LOC 0125Z 271DEG 31KT 4679 11421 4647 11427

Special weather statement, Jul 9, 8:31 PM MDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
831 PM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016

IDZ006-MTZ006-100315-
SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS ID-BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS MT-
831 PM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL IDAHO AND WESTERN
RAVALLI COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM MDT/815 PM PDT/...

AT 830 PM MDT/730 PM PDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 30 MILES WEST OF DARBY...OR 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HAMILTON...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM IS OVER RUNNING CREEK AND WILL MOVE INTO THE SELWAY-
BITTERROOT WILDERNESS AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4589 11493 4608 11506 4623 11456 4592 11444
TIME...MOT...LOC 0230Z 248DEG 35KT 4600 11481

The office that day

Everything else NWS Missoula, MT issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 9, 7:27 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	MSO	Missoula	33 min
Jul 9, 8:54 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	MSO	Granite	36 min
Jul 9, 9:06 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MSO	Ravalli	39 min
Jul 10, 1:45 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	MSO	Silver Bow	45 min
Jul 10, 9:57 AM MDT	Flash Flood Watch	MSO	Lemhi	9 hr

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Montana, 2016 Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.