Flash Flood Watch 5, NWS Missoula, MT

275 
WGUS65 KMSO 110050
FFAMSO

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
650 PM MDT SUN JUL 10 2016

IDZ009-010-110200-
/O.CAN.KMSO.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-160711T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WESTERN LEMHI COUNTY-EASTERN LEMHI COUNTY-
650 PM MDT SUN JUL 10 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF EAST CENTRAL IDAHO HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
348 AM MDT Sun Jul 10 2016

...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY...
...HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have been tracking
through north central Idaho and southwest Montana early this
morning. Stronger storms have been producing heavy rainfall, gusty
winds, small hail, and frequent lightning as they move
northeastward.

As the large low pressure system moves through our area today,
widespread precipitation with embedded thunderstorms are expected
due to high moisture availability. Initial heavy rainfall amounts
will focus around north-central Idaho and southwest Montana
today...and spreading northward to the rest of northwest Montana
by tonight into early Monday. This system will also keep
temperatures well below normal for those locations receiving
precipitation and thick cloud cover. Snow levels are forecast to
drop as low as 6500-7000 feet tonight into early Monday, resulting
in snowfall for high terrain. After all is said and done, valleys
could see over a half inch of rainfall while mountains could
potentially see 1-3" of liquid equivalent. The exception will be
far northwest Montana where precipitation will be limited due to
the low's track. Outdoor activities, especially those in the
backcountry, should prepare for wet and cool conditions.
Hypothermia and poor visibility will be large concerns for high
elevations.

As the low exits the region, a flat westerly flow will be over
the Northern Rockies Tuesday through Thursday. A subtle
disturbance is expected to swing through the region on Tuesday
which appears to cause scattered showers and thunderstorms over
Idaho county into southwest Montana during the afternoon and
evening. Wednesday and Thursday appear to be fairly dry with
temperatures steadily warming.

The models are starting to depict another large low pressure
system moving into the area by the weekend. The current models
runs have the track of the low farther to the north than the
current situation, so the bulk of the precipitation should be
north of the Canadian border with this next system. Temperatures
should cool to below normal readings once again this coming week.

&&

.AVIATION...Widespread showers, with embedded thunderstorms and
heavy bursts of rainfall, are likely for KMSO, KBTM, and KSMN
throughout today causing persistent, obscured terrain.
Showers and thunderstorms will spread northward toward KGPI after
11/0000. Rain will persist overnight for most locations,
particularly across southwest/west-central Montana and central
Idaho, and snow levels are anticipated to drop down to 6500-7000
feet. Ceiling and visibility reductions will be commonplace
throughout the day today into Monday.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&