Special Weather Statement, NWS Missoula, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
303 PM MDT WED JUN 8 2016

.UPDATE...Issued a flash flood watch for the camas prairie region
in west central Idaho for potential heavy rains with
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...Strong upper atmospheric forcing combined with an
unstable atmosphere will lead to scattered thunderstorms that have
potential for hail.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
l and damaging winds this afternoon and evening.
Current models give KMSO and KGPI the best chance of strong
storms, but KBTM could also see gusty winds as thunderstorms
develop after 08/2100z. Some towering cumulus are already visible
across the area, and this will likely become the first round of
storms. TAFs will continue to highlight the time frame of these
thunderstorms with VCTS and TS groups. Storms move from southwest
to northeast, and will bring gusty erratic winds when near
terminals. A cold front pushing through after 09/0200z will cause
a wind shift late this evening. By midnight, the most intense
storms are expected to have moved east of the Continental Divide.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM MDT WED JUN 8 2016/

..Severe Thunderstorms Possible into tonight...

DISCUSSION...With current hot and relatively moist atmosphere
will come the chance for strong thunderstorms in southwest flow
ahead of low pressure which is currently spinning off the West
Coast. Current NWS Missoula social media posts (Facebook &
Twitter) highlight graphically the areas where the strongest
storms are expected, which is roughly along a line from Orofino,
ID to Glacier National Park, MT. But most of western Montana and
north central Idaho could see thunderstorms at some point into
tonight.

For those with outdoor plans into this evening, keep an eye on
the sky, and respect the intensity of these storms by finding a
safe location if storms approach. Not all locations will see
thunderstorms into tonight, but those that do may experience
strong to damaging winds, plenty of lightning, and even some large
hail directly under the storm cores. Stay weather aware while
outside.

A cold front is ex&&

.DISCUSSION...
pected to shift across north central Idaho late
this afternoon and into western Montana during the evening. The
cold front will produce increasing winds, but also help enhance
some of the prior discussed thunderstorms.

A cooler air mass should cover the northern Rockies Thursday. The
atmosphere will remain moderately unstable from the Bitterroots
and Lemhi County eastward across southwest Montana.

As the main upper trough of low pressure over the Pacific
Northwest sharpens/strengthens on Friday, this should put west
central Montana, southwest Montana, and the Camas Prairie/Salmon
River Canyon eastward across the Clearwaters in a more favorable
area for a few afternoon thunderstorms. Isolated storms that
develop over southwest Montana could become strong.

Additional moisture&&

.DISCUSSION...
 and showers are expected to stream northward
over north central Idaho and especially western Montana Saturday
and Saturday night as the main trough of low pressure shifts over
the area. A brief break in the showers may occur late Sunday into
Monday as weak high pressure returns.

Longer range guidance shows another relatively moist/unstable
period (in terms of shower/thunderstorm threat) next week.

AVIATION...Strong upper atmospheric forcing combined with an
unstable atmosphere will lead to scattered thunderstorms that have
potential for hail and damaging winds this afternoon and evening.
Current models give KMSO and KGPI the best chance of strong
storms, but KBTM could also see gusty winds as thunderstorms
develop after 08/2100z. Some towering cumulus are already visible
across the area, and this will likely become the first round of
storms. TAFs will continue to highlight the time frame of these
thunderstorms with VCTS and TS groups. Storms move from southwest
to northeast, and will bring gusty erratic winds when near
terminals. A cold front pushing through after 09/0200z will cause
a wind shift late this evening. By midnight, the most intense
storms are expected to have moved east of the Continental Divide.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM PDT this evening
     Orofino/Grangeville Region.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
459 PM MDT WED JUN 8 2016

MTZ043-082330-
POTOMAC/SEELEY LAKE REGION MT-
459 PM MDT WED JUN 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MISSOULA...WESTERN
POWELL AND SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM MDT...

AT 457 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES SOUTHEAST OF ST. IGNATIUS...OR 26 MILES NORTH OF MISSOULA...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN
MISSOULA...WESTERN POWELL AND SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4712 11389 4727 11404 4754 11357 4731 11336
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 233DEG 34KT 4725 11387

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
506 PM MDT WED JUN 8 2016

MTZ001>003-082345-
KOOTENAI/CABINET REGION MT-FLATHEAD/MISSION VALLEYS MT-
WEST GLACIER REGION MT-
506 PM MDT WED JUN 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL FLATHEAD COUNTY UNTIL 545
PM MDT...

AT 506 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
EVERGREEN...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KALISPELL...EVERGREEN...LA SALLE...CRESTON AND HUNGRY HORSE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN MONTANA.

LAT...LON 4817 11441 4827 11443 4844 11384 4817 11375
TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 253DEG 42KT 4825 11423

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
413 PM PDT WED JUN 8 2016

IDZ005-007-090000-
OROFINO/GRANGEVILLE REGION ID-NORTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS ID-
413 PM PDT WED JUN 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO AND WESTERN
CLEARWATER COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM PDT...

AT 412 PM PDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES NORTH OF WEIPPE...OR 12 MILES EAST OF OROFINO...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OROFINO...PIERCE...WEIPPE...HEADQUARTERS...GREER...
CARDIFF AND JAYPE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM PDT FOR
THE PANHANDLE OF AND CENTRAL IDAHO.

LAT...LON 4693 11584 4671 11540 4630 11601 4638 11618
      4641 11619 4641 11623
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 215DEG 33KT 4648 11598

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