Flash Flood Watch 4, NWS Missoula, MT

098 
WGUS65 KMSO 090206
FFAMSO

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
806 PM MDT WED JUN 8 2016

IDZ007-090315-
/O.CAN.KMSO.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-160609T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OROFINO/GRANGEVILLE REGION-
706 PM PDT WED JUN 8 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL IDAHO HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM AREA THUNDERSTORMS ARE NO LONGER A
THREAT THIS EVENING. MORE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED IN
THE NEXT 2 HOURS...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING HEAVY RAIN RATES THAT
COULD CREATE FLOODING.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
225 PM MDT WED JUN 8 2016

...Severe Thunderstorms Possible into tonight...

.DISCUSSION...With current hot and relatively moist atmosphere
will come the chance for strong thunderstorms in southwest flow
ahead of low pressure which is currently spinning off the West
Coast. Current NWS Missoula social media posts (Facebook &
Twitter) highlight graphically the areas where the strongest
storms are expected, which is roughly along a line from Orofino,
ID to Glacier National Park, MT. But most of western Montana and
north central Idaho could see thunderstorms at some point into
tonight.

For those with outdoor plans into this evening, keep an eye on
the sky, and respect the intensity of these storms by finding a
safe location if storms approach. Not all locations will see
thunderstorms into tonight, but those that do may experience
strong to damaging winds, plenty of lightning, and even some large
hail directly under the storm cores. Stay weather aware while
outside.

A cold front is expected to shift across north central Idaho late
this afternoon and into western Montana during the evening. The
cold front will produce increasing winds, but also help enhance
some of the prior discussed thunderstorms.

A cooler air mass should cover the northern Rockies Thursday. The
atmosphere will remain moderately unstable from the Bitterroots
and Lemhi County eastward across southwest Montana.

As the main upper trough of low pressure over the Pacific
Northwest sharpens/strengthens on Friday, this should put west
central Montana, southwest Montana, and the Camas Prairie/Salmon
River Canyon eastward across the Clearwaters in a more favorable
area for a few afternoon thunderstorms. Isolated storms that
develop over southwest Montana could become strong.

Additional moisture and showers are expected to stream northward
over north central Idaho and especially western Montana Saturday
and Saturday night as the main trough of low pressure shifts over
the area. A brief break in the showers may occur late Sunday into
Monday as weak high pressure returns.

Longer range guidance shows another relatively moist/unstable
period (in terms of shower/thunderstorm threat) next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Strong upper atmospheric forcing combined with an
unstable atmosphere will lead to scattered thunderstorms that have
potential for hail and damaging winds this afternoon and evening.
Current models give KMSO and KGPI the best chance of strong
storms, but KBTM could also see gusty winds as thunderstorms
develop after 08/2100z. Some towering cumulus are already visible
across the area, and this will likely become the first round of
storms. TAFs will continue to highlight the time frame of these
thunderstorms with VCTS and TS groups. Storms move from southwest
to northeast, and will bring gusty erratic winds when near
terminals. A cold front pushing through after 09/0200z will cause
a wind shift late this evening. By midnight, the most intense
storms are expected to have moved east of the Continental Divide.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&