Special Weather Statement, NWS Morristown, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
311 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
The convective line of strong to marginally severe thunderstorms
over Middle TN...will continue it's march toward the Cumberland
Plateau over the next couple of hours....and then gradually move
across the region late this afternoon (from around 21Z) through the
late evening (03Z or so). Given the very weak shear...the intensity
of this activity will be mitigated somewhat. However...the steep
lapse rates (on the order of 7 deg C)...the ML CAPE values around
2000 J/kg...and the presence of drier air aloft (noted on the
inverted-V sounding profiles)...will keep a severe threat going
through the early to mid evening. The main threats will be
localized wet microbursts and damaging straight-line convective
winds...along with marginally severe hail and lightning. Some
locally heavy rainfall is also possible given the slow-moving
nature of these storms as they progress east.

Late tonight...this activity will clear off to the east...and
thanks to some partial clearing and light winds...some patchy fog
is expected through the morning rush hour commute on Friday. The
unsettled pattern will continue on Friday...with the weak open
upper-trough swinging through. This will bring scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms across the region during the
afternoon and evening...favoring areas along and south of I-40.
Given the cloud cover and precipitation chances...a cooler day with
highs in the 80s are expected areawide.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Deep moisture and a weakly unstable air mass in place on Saturday
combined with a residual convective boundary over the region and a
short wave moving through will provide a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Weaker instability will remain over the area Sunday
and Monday for a lesser chance of convection. The best chance of
thunderstorms will be Tuesday when a stronger short wave/boundary
moves into the area. We will become moderately unstable with deep
moisture in place and could see a few strong to marginally severe
storms develop over the region. Convective chances diminish
Wednesday and Thursday as drier air and surface high pressure move
in.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             72  89  71  90 /  50  70  40  50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  71  89  69  87 /  50  50  40  50
Oak Ridge, TN                       70  90  69  87 /  50  50  40  50
Tri Cities Airport, TN              69  88  67  85 /  40  40  40  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

AMP/MJB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1045 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-151445-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
1045 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 /945 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE STORMS SHOULD NOT BE VERY
ORGANIZED...SOME MAY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LOCALIZED STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.

THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD ESPECIALLY KEEP AN EYE ON THE
WEATHER AND HAVE A WAY TO GET WARNING INFORMATION!

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS PRODUCING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAINS AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY TUESDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ALONG
WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE
VERY UNSTABLE PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL UP TO
QUARTER SIZE...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS WEEK...AND AGAIN NEXT
TUESDAY.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
532 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0456 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE KNOXVILLE          35.99N 83.93W
07/14/2016                   KNOX               TN   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ON A HOME VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

SROBERTS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
537 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0504 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLEAR WATER             35.50N 84.65W
07/14/2016                   MCMINN             TN   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES REPORTED DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY

&&

SROBERTS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
538 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

TNZ014-036>038-069-142215-
KNOX TN-ANDERSON TN-CLAIBORNE TN-GRAINGER TN-UNION TN-
538 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 536 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES NORTHEAST OF CLINTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLINTON...MAYNARDVILLE...RUTLEDGE...NEW TAZEWELL...TAZEWELL...
PLAINVIEW...HALLS...BLAINE...NORRIS...LUTTRELL...SHARPS CHAPEL...
BUFFALO SPRINGS...BIG RIDGE S.P....LONE MOUNTAIN...ANDERSONVILLE...
PAULETTE...NORRIS LAKE...ROSE HILL...SPRINGDALE AND JOPPA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3602 8403 3617 8414 3650 8358 3627 8341
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 238DEG 31KT 3614 8401

TD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
545 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

TNZ016-038-039-042-070-142230-
HAWKINS TN-JEFFERSON TN-HAMBLEN TN-GRAINGER TN-NORTHWEST GREENE TN-
545 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL GRAINGER...
NORTHWESTERN GREENE...HAMBLEN...SOUTHWESTERN HAWKINS AND NORTHEASTERN
JEFFERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

AT 544 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
BETWEEN TALBOTT AND JEFFERSON CITY...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MORRISTOWN...GREENEVILLE...JEFFERSON CITY...ROGERSVILLE...
BEAN STATION...WHITE PINE...RUSSELLVILLE...MOSHEIM...BULLS GAP...
ST. CLAIR...ALPHA...MCCLOUD...ROMEO...LOWLAND...
MOHAWK AND PANTHER CREEK S.P..

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3643 8292 3617 8283 3612 8313 3616 8317
      3618 8317 3617 8319 3613 8318 3613 8319
      3615 8322 3613 8322 3613 8324 3611 8324
      3607 8347 3624 8353
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 254DEG 28KT 3618 8341

TD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
613 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

TNZ040>043-142300-
COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS TN-NORTHWEST COCKE TN-NORTHWEST GREENE TN-
SOUTHEAST GREENE TN-
613 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN GREENE AND CENTRAL COCKE
COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 612 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
PARROTTSVILLE...OR 7 MILES EAST OF NEWPORT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GREENEVILLE...TUSCULUM...PARROTTSVILLE...CAMP CREEK...CEDAR CREEK...
CANEY BRANCH AND DEL RIO.

LAT...LON 3600 8278 3598 8279 3597 8277 3593 8280
      3592 8282 3595 8285 3595 8288 3594 8290
      3593 8291 3593 8292 3589 8291 3589 8314
      3607 8317 3617 8268 3606 8266
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 262DEG 19KT 3599 8307

TD