Severe Thunderstorm Warning 139, NWS Morristown, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
311 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
The convective line of strong to marginally severe thunderstorms
over Middle TN...will continue it's march toward the Cumberland
Plateau over the next couple of hours....and then gradually move
across the region late this afternoon (from around 21Z) through the
late evening (03Z or so). Given the very weak shear...the intensity
of this activity will be mitigated somewhat. However...the steep
lapse rates (on the order of 7 deg C)...the ML CAPE values around
2000 J/kg...and the presence of drier air aloft (noted on the
inverted-V sounding profiles)...will keep a severe threat going
through the early to mid evening. The main threats will be
localized wet microbursts and damaging straight-line convective
winds...along with marginally severe hail and lightning. Some
locally heavy rainfall is also possible given the slow-moving
nature of these storms as they progress east.

Late tonight...this activity will clear off to the east...and
thanks to some partial clearing and light winds...some patchy fog
is expected through the morning rush hour commute on Friday. The
unsettled pattern will continue on Friday...with the weak open
upper-trough swinging through. This will bring scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms across the region during the
afternoon and evening...favoring areas along and south of I-40.
Given the cloud cover and precipitation chances...a cooler day with
highs in the 80s are expected areawide.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Deep moisture and a weakly unstable air mass in place on Saturday
combined with a residual convective boundary over the region and a
short wave moving through will provide a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Weaker instability will remain over the area Sunday
and Monday for a lesser chance of convection. The best chance of
thunderstorms will be Tuesday when a stronger short wave/boundary
moves into the area. We will become moderately unstable with deep
moisture in place and could see a few strong to marginally severe
storms develop over the region. Convective chances diminish
Wednesday and Thursday as drier air and surface high pressure move
in.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             72  89  71  90 /  50  70  40  50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  71  89  69  87 /  50  50  40  50
Oak Ridge, TN                       70  90  69  87 /  50  50  40  50
Tri Cities Airport, TN              69  88  67  85 /  40  40  40  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

AMP/MJB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1045 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-151445-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
1045 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 /945 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE STORMS SHOULD NOT BE VERY
ORGANIZED...SOME MAY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LOCALIZED STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.

THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD ESPECIALLY KEEP AN EYE ON THE
WEATHER AND HAVE A WAY TO GET WARNING INFORMATION!

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS PRODUCING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAINS AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY TUESDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ALONG
WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE
VERY UNSTABLE PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL UP TO
QUARTER SIZE...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS WEEK...AND AGAIN NEXT
TUESDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
409 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

TNZ085>087-100>102-142100-
BRADLEY-SOUTHEAST MONROE-NORTHWEST MONROE-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-MCMINN-
409 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT POLK...SOUTHEASTERN
BRADLEY...SOUTHEASTERN MCMINN AND SOUTHWESTERN MONROE COUNTIES...

AT 408 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF ETOWAH TO 8 MILES
EAST OF ETON. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 45 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ATHENS...BENTON...DUCKTOWN...ETOWAH...ENGLEWOOD...TELLICO PLAINS...
NIOTA...COKER CREEK...ARCHVILLE...PARKSVILLE...GAP SPRINGS...
MOUNT VERNON...BULLET CREEK...HIWASSEE OCOEE S.P....DENTVILLE...
CONASAUGA...COPPERHILL...BIG FROG MOUNTAIN...RELIANCE AND TURTLETOWN.

LAT...LON 3499 8481 3552 8459 3544 8419 3525 8425
      3522 8429 3507 8431 3499 8433
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 253DEG 41KT 3542 8446 3486 8461

MJB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
311 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

TNZ081-082-142045-
BLEDSOE-SEQUATCHIE-
311 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SEQUATCHIE AND SOUTHWESTERN
BLEDSOE COUNTIES...

AT 310 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES EAST OF
DUNLAP...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DUNLAP...PALIO...BRAYTON...CAGLE...OLD CUMBERLAND...
FLAT TOP MOUNTAIN AND MOWBRAY MOUNTAIN.

LAT...LON 3553 8558 3554 8554 3555 8546 3559 8541
      3551 8514 3549 8514 3548 8513 3547 8513
      3545 8515 3545 8517 3532 8524 3527 8529
      3534 8554 3536 8551 3541 8549 3541 8551
      3542 8551 3543 8554 3549 8554 3552 8558
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 284DEG 48KT 3541 8522

MJB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
422 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

TNZ081>084-099-142100-
RHEA-MEIGS-BLEDSOE-HAMILTON-SEQUATCHIE-
422 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL
SEQUATCHIE...RHEA...BLEDSOE...MEIGS AND NORTHEASTERN HAMILTON
COUNTIES...

AT 422 PM EDT/322 PM CDT/...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR SPRING CITY TO NEAR DUNLAP.
MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 45 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DAYTON...PIKEVILLE...DECATUR...SPRING CITY...GRAYSVILLE...
FALL CREEK FALLS STATE PARK...BRAYTON...PEAKLAND...BIG SPRING...
TEN MILE...STINGING FORK FALLS S.P....BIRCHWOOD...GRANDVIEW...
PINEY FALLS S.P....EVENSVILLE...OLD CUMBERLAND...PALIO...
OLD WASHINGTON...MOUNT CREST AND SALE CREEK.

LAT...LON 3538 8521 3536 8523 3545 8535 3553 8551
      3561 8538 3572 8526 3577 8525 3577 8504
      3575 8503 3576 8492 3583 8479 3579 8474
      3575 8475 3574 8470 3570 8467 3573 8464
      3571 8462 3565 8462 3535 8486 3525 8496
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 272DEG 39KT 3568 8495 3539 8533

MJB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
424 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

TNZ012-013-035-036-067>069-071-083-142130-
RHEA TN-ROANE TN-KNOX TN-CAMPBELL TN-SCOTT TN-NW BLOUNT TN-LOUDON TN-
ANDERSON TN-MORGAN TN-
424 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SCOTT...CAMPBELL...WESTERN
KNOX...NORTHEASTERN RHEA...NORTHWESTERN BLOUNT...ANDERSON...ROANE...
LOUDON AND MORGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 422 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR ONEIDA TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
WARTBURG TO 7 MILES WEST OF ROCKWOOD. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 30 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KNOXVILLE...OAK RIDGE...CLINTON...LENOIR CITY...LA FOLLETTE...
KINGSTON...ROCKWOOD...LOUDON...ONEIDA...WARTBURG...FARRAGUT...
FAIRVIEW...OLIVER SPRINGS...LOUISVILLE...JACKSBORO...HUNTSVILLE...
MIDTOWN...HELENWOOD...HARRIMAN AND JELLICO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3659 8398 3647 8394 3630 8397 3627 8401
      3623 8398 3603 8402 3559 8417 3562 8419
      3562 8425 3563 8425 3564 8428 3567 8432
      3564 8437 3567 8443 3578 8489 3583 8477
      3591 8468 3599 8472 3606 8479 3660 8461
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 283DEG 28KT 3657 8454 3618 8466 3584 8480

TD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
430 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JASPER                  35.06N 85.63W
07/14/2016                   MARION             TN   911 CALL CENTER

            A FEW TREES DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY FROM 4 TO 420PM

&&

MBLACK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
434 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0426 PM     HAIL             FARRAGUT                35.87N 84.18W
07/14/2016  E1.00 INCH       KNOX               TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SROBERTS