Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Morristown, TN

023 
WWUS54 KMRX 300504
SVSMRX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1104 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

TNC007-153-300513-
/O.CAN.KMRX.SV.W.0185.000000T0000Z-161130T0515Z/
SEQUATCHIE TN-BLEDSOE TN-
1104 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN SEQUATCHIE AND
NORTHWESTERN BLEDSOE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CST FOR EASTERN
TENNESSEE.

LAT...LON 3555 8550 3555 8546 3556 8545 3557 8542
      3572 8526 3575 8527 3575 8526 3576 8527
      3577 8525 3577 8517 3561 8506 3545 8554
      3549 8554 3553 8560
TIME...MOT...LOC 0501Z 240DEG 38KT 3562 8530 

$$

DGS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1009 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Mesoanalysis shows a boundary, noted by a tight dewpoint gradient,
between Athens and Cleveland at the moment. It has made slow
northward progress in the past few hours, but the primary severe
weather threat tonight will be to the south of this boundary.
Instability parameters indicate an environment in SE TN that is
less supportive of severe storms than in AL, so weakening of the
storms is expected as they move NE. However with 0-1 km SR
helicity values still very high, and with the boundary in the
area, an isolated tornado threat will continue.

The need for a flahs flood watch was considered, as the models are
showing very high PW values for this time of year, in the 1.5-1.75
inch range. Storm total QPF amounts in the NAM are between 1.5-2.5
inches across the area, and the GFS is a little higher than that.
However, the most bullish SREF member is showing 1.5 inches, with a
mean of 1 inch. With one-hour flash flood guidance values being on
the order of 2-2.5 inches, the rivers and streams should be able to
hold a lot of runoff before flooding. For now, will hold off on
issuing a flash flood watch. The burn scar areas in the mountains
and urban areas will be the locations with the best flooding
potential.

The Wind Advisory and High Wind Warning will be left as is. The
update will adjust pops and temperatures to better match current
obs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             64  66  40  57 / 100 100  10  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  58  66  41  55 /  80 100  20  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       54  66  41  53 /  90 100  10  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              45  67  39  52 /  30 100  20  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Wind Advisory until 3 PM EST Wednesday for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Wind Advisory until 3 PM EST Wednesday for East Polk-Johnson-NW
     Blount-North Sevier-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-
     Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Southeast Carter-
     Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi-Washington TN.

     High Wind Warning until 3 PM EST Wednesday for Blount Smoky
     Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains.

VA...Wind Advisory until 3 PM EST Wednesday for Wise.

&&

DGS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
310 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2016

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-302015-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
310 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2016 /210 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS FROM
LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

...WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE FAR EASTERN
TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA...AND WISE COUNTY..VIRGINIA FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
AND PORTIONS OF EAST TENNESSEE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

...FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS THE PIGEON FORGE/GATLINBURG AREAS
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING ACROSS THE
THE BURN SCARS FROM THE RECENT FIRES...

A STRONG JET WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING PRODUCING SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 3000 FEET. AREAS BELOW 3000
FEET...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS AND COLD AIR
ALOFT...STORMS COULD BE STRONG AND SOME MAY EVEN BECOME
SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TN VALLEY. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

RAINFALL BETWEEN 1 AND 1 1/2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOCAL
AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING FALLING OVER THE BURN SCARS IN AND AROUND
GATLINBURG AND PIGEON FORGE...FLASH FLOODING IS A CONCERN ACROSS
THESE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

AT THIS TIME...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.