Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
345 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2016

The line has formed already from Appleton northeast into western
Stearns county this afternoon. Confidence is now very high this
line will continue strengthening while heading east southeast
between the Minnesota River and I-94 for the next couple hours. As
it develops a well organized cold pool, widespread wind damage
will become the greatest threat with potential for high end wind
gusts in excess of 80 mph. The swath of greatest wind damage will
likely occur with the apex of the bow, which is currently
forecast to track across the western and southern Twin Cities
metro to as far south as Mankato - and points southeast later
this evening. The SPC Day 1 outlook at 20Z has upgraded this area
to a moderate risk with some potential for the line to become a
derecho by the time it reaches Minneapolis/St Paul and points
south.

One thing that will need to be watched is whether a wake low
develops, which may bring another round of damaging winds well
behind the main thunderstorm activity. This will depend on the
strength of the cold pool and forward speed of the line which will
be monitored closely.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2016

In the extended we are looking at two periods with better, Thursday
and again Monday into Tuesday next week. We will get a brief
reprieve from the heat and humidity Friday and Saturday, but that
looks to start its return back into the area Sunday out ahead of the
system for early next week.

Still a good deal of uncertainty with how precip chances will unfold
Wednesday night into Thursday with models still showing a good deal
of spread with how much convection will be accompanying the warm
front as it lifts back north toward MN.  Have highest pops during
the day Thursday as an inverted trough develops across MN in
response to a strong shortwave moving across the Dakotas. This upper
low will allow a surface low to develop near Duluth Thursday night,
with a good drying west wind and subsidence coming across southern
MN, so sped up the departure of pops across MN Thursday night.
Lingered some chance pops north of I-94 on Friday as they will be
within the cyclonic flow and cold pool of a closed h5 low going
across NW WI. This looks to be predominately diurnally driven, with
weak instability limiting any severe threat on Friday.

The nicest day of the week looks to line up perfectly with Saturday
as high pressure moves across the state. This high will be off into
the Great Lakes by Saturday night, with a strong return flow
developing. Eventually this return flow will see a warm front come
back on Sunday/Sunday night. The GFS/ECMWF keep us mainly dry
through the weekend, but the Canadian shows a healthy burst of
convection developing Sunday ahead of the warm front, which is why
we maintained PoPs across MN as there will certainly be a good
increase in elevated instability as the warm front moves in, so a
thunder threat Sunday/Sunday night is certainly plausible, even if
the ECMWF/GFS don't show anything at the moment.

For the beginning of next week, the GFS/ECMWF show a low becoming
occluded as it moves into southern Saskatchewan. Cold front
associated with this low will move across MN on Monday, but will be
running into a developing upper ridge as heights rise in response to
the deepening low to our NW. This ridging and the stalling of the
surface low in southern Canada will slow down the progress of the
front, with the threat for showers and thunderstorms continuing for
eastern MN and western WI going into Tuesday. Surface dewpoints
ahead of the front will increase into the lower 70s and with
temperatures again increasing into at least the mid/upper 80s, we
should see another highly moist and unstable environment with the
risk of severe weather and excessive rainfall returning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2016

One large cluster of thunderstorms just southwest of AXN appear to
be weakening as they head toward the airport, with redevelopment
to the south. This should continue to be the case during the next
few hours until the better moisture can push a bit further north.
Otherwise, expect scattered severe storms to develop across west
central MN during the mid afternoon, organize into a line and race
east southeastward across the TAF sites late this afternoon
through mid-late evening. Severe wind gusts are most likely at
MSP/RNH/EAU when the system's organization has been peaked.

KMSP...Best timing appears to be just before 00z through mid
evening for thunderstorm activity with the severe threat expected
near the front end of the activity. LIFR conditions and winds of
45+ kts are expected with the line.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed night...Mainly VFR. Chc -TSRA late. Wind E 5 kts.
Thu...Mainly VFR. TSRA likely. Wind E 5-10 kts.
Fri...Mainly VFR. Chc -TSRA. Wind NW 10-15.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...BORGHOFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
305 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
062015-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
305 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...INCLUDING
IN THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA...WITH SOME LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND AN ENHANCED RISK ELSEWHERE. HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

BORGHOFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
523 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PAYNESVILLE             45.38N 94.72W
07/05/2016                   STEARNS            MN   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE DOWN IN YARD. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

CARLYON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
534 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             3 S KANDIYOHI           45.09N 94.93W
07/05/2016  U1.75 INCH       KANDIYOHI          MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            .

&&

CARLYON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
537 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S ROCKVILLE           45.40N 94.35W
07/05/2016                   STEARNS            MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN UP TO 2 FT DIAMETER
            BETWEEN COLD SPRING AND KIMBALL.

&&

CARLYON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
538 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             COSMOS                  44.94N 94.70W
07/05/2016  M0.75 INCH       MEEKER             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            .

&&

CARLYON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
540 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     HAIL             2 SSE COSMOS            44.91N 94.68W
07/05/2016  U2.00 INCH       MEEKER             MN   PUBLIC

            .

&&

CARLYON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
541 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

MNZ054-056-057-064-065-073-052330-
CHIPPEWA-RENVILLE-REDWOOD-LAC QUI PARLE-KANDIYOHI-YELLOW MEDICINE-
541 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT YELLOW MEDICINE...
NORTHERN REDWOOD...WESTERN RENVILLE...SOUTHERN LAC QUI PARLE...
SOUTHWESTERN KANDIYOHI AND SOUTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTIES...

AT 540 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BURR TO NEAR RENVILLE. MOVEMENT WAS EAST
AT 40 TO 50 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MONTEVIDEO...REDWOOD FALLS...GRANITE FALLS...OLIVIA...CANBY...
MADISON...DAWSON...CLARA CITY...RENVILLE...CLARKFIELD...
RAYMOND AND SACRED HEART.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 U.S. HIGHWAY 212 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 77.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 75 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 95 AND 108.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 59 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 87 AND 107.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 71 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 75 AND 115.

LAT...LON 4500 9645 4504 9505 4453 9491 4451 9559
      4462 9561 4463 9563 4463 9645
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 262DEG 43KT 4473 9637 4475 9517

CLF