Severe Thunderstorm Warning 120, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
345 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2016

The line has formed already from Appleton northeast into western
Stearns county this afternoon. Confidence is now very high this
line will continue strengthening while heading east southeast
between the Minnesota River and I-94 for the next couple hours. As
it develops a well organized cold pool, widespread wind damage
will become the greatest threat with potential for high end wind
gusts in excess of 80 mph. The swath of greatest wind damage will
likely occur with the apex of the bow, which is currently
forecast to track across the western and southern Twin Cities
metro to as far south as Mankato - and points southeast later
this evening. The SPC Day 1 outlook at 20Z has upgraded this area
to a moderate risk with some potential for the line to become a
derecho by the time it reaches Minneapolis/St Paul and points
south.

One thing that will need to be watched is whether a wake low
develops, which may bring another round of damaging winds well
behind the main thunderstorm activity. This will depend on the
strength of the cold pool and forward speed of the line which will
be monitored closely.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2016

In the extended we are looking at two periods with better, Thursday
and again Monday into Tuesday next week. We will get a brief
reprieve from the heat and humidity Friday and Saturday, but that
looks to start its return back into the area Sunday out ahead of the
system for early next week.

Still a good deal of uncertainty with how precip chances will unfold
Wednesday night into Thursday with models still showing a good deal
of spread with how much convection will be accompanying the warm
front as it lifts back north toward MN.  Have highest pops during
the day Thursday as an inverted trough develops across MN in
response to a strong shortwave moving across the Dakotas. This upper
low will allow a surface low to develop near Duluth Thursday night,
with a good drying west wind and subsidence coming across southern
MN, so sped up the departure of pops across MN Thursday night.
Lingered some chance pops north of I-94 on Friday as they will be
within the cyclonic flow and cold pool of a closed h5 low going
across NW WI. This looks to be predominately diurnally driven, with
weak instability limiting any severe threat on Friday.

The nicest day of the week looks to line up perfectly with Saturday
as high pressure moves across the state. This high will be off into
the Great Lakes by Saturday night, with a strong return flow
developing. Eventually this return flow will see a warm front come
back on Sunday/Sunday night. The GFS/ECMWF keep us mainly dry
through the weekend, but the Canadian shows a healthy burst of
convection developing Sunday ahead of the warm front, which is why
we maintained PoPs across MN as there will certainly be a good
increase in elevated instability as the warm front moves in, so a
thunder threat Sunday/Sunday night is certainly plausible, even if
the ECMWF/GFS don't show anything at the moment.

For the beginning of next week, the GFS/ECMWF show a low becoming
occluded as it moves into southern Saskatchewan. Cold front
associated with this low will move across MN on Monday, but will be
running into a developing upper ridge as heights rise in response to
the deepening low to our NW. This ridging and the stalling of the
surface low in southern Canada will slow down the progress of the
front, with the threat for showers and thunderstorms continuing for
eastern MN and western WI going into Tuesday. Surface dewpoints
ahead of the front will increase into the lower 70s and with
temperatures again increasing into at least the mid/upper 80s, we
should see another highly moist and unstable environment with the
risk of severe weather and excessive rainfall returning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2016

One large cluster of thunderstorms just southwest of AXN appear to
be weakening as they head toward the airport, with redevelopment
to the south. This should continue to be the case during the next
few hours until the better moisture can push a bit further north.
Otherwise, expect scattered severe storms to develop across west
central MN during the mid afternoon, organize into a line and race
east southeastward across the TAF sites late this afternoon
through mid-late evening. Severe wind gusts are most likely at
MSP/RNH/EAU when the system's organization has been peaked.

KMSP...Best timing appears to be just before 00z through mid
evening for thunderstorm activity with the severe threat expected
near the front end of the activity. LIFR conditions and winds of
45+ kts are expected with the line.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed night...Mainly VFR. Chc -TSRA late. Wind E 5 kts.
Thu...Mainly VFR. TSRA likely. Wind E 5-10 kts.
Fri...Mainly VFR. Chc -TSRA. Wind NW 10-15.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...BORGHOFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
305 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
062015-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
305 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...INCLUDING
IN THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA...WITH SOME LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND AN ENHANCED RISK ELSEWHERE. HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

BORGHOFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
443 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     TSTM WND GST     KIMBALL                 45.31N 94.30W
07/05/2016  M70 MPH          STEARNS            MN   STORM CHASER

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W EDEN VALLEY         45.32N 94.61W
07/05/2016                   MEEKER             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1 FOOT DIAMETER BRANCHES DOWN POWER LOST.

0415 PM     HAIL             3 W EDEN VALLEY         45.32N 94.61W
07/05/2016  E0.88 INCH       MEEKER             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0413 PM     HEAVY RAIN       10 SW MURDOCK           45.12N 95.54W
07/05/2016  M2.00 INCH       CHIPPEWA           MN   STORM CHASER

0409 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N PAYNESVILLE         45.39N 94.72W
07/05/2016  M69 MPH          STEARNS            MN   AMATEUR RADIO

0400 PM     HAIL             8 SE DANVERS            45.20N 95.64W
07/05/2016  M1.00 INCH       SWIFT              MN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

0305 PM     TORNADO          2 NE APPLETON           45.22N 96.00W
07/05/2016                   SWIFT              MN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            SPOTTED ON GROUND ALONG HWY 59 TO THE NE OF
            APPLETON.

0255 PM     TORNADO          4 N APPLETON            45.27N 96.03W
07/05/2016                   SWIFT              MN   STORM CHASER

            NEAR HWY 59 AND 200TH AVE.

0816 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 E MORRIS              45.59N 95.87W
07/05/2016  M4.51 INCH       STEVENS            MN   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR TOTAL.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 WSW MORRIS            45.57N 95.97W
07/05/2016  M3.91 INCH       STEVENS            MN   AWOS

            MEASURED AT MORRIS AIRPORT. 24 HOUR TOTAL. .

0600 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SE MORRIS             45.58N 95.90W
07/05/2016  M5.23 INCH       STEVENS            MN   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR TOTAL. DITCHES WERE FLOODED. .

1216 AM     HAIL             3 ESE BENSON            45.31N 95.55W
07/05/2016  E1.00 INCH       SWIFT              MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED. ALSO ESTIMATED
            50-60 MPH WINDS.

&&

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
448 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             3 W ANNANDALE           45.26N 94.18W
07/05/2016  M0.88 INCH       WRIGHT             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAINS TOO.

&&

CARLYON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
511 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     HAIL             3 SSW SOUTH HAVEN       45.25N 94.25W
07/05/2016  U2.00 INCH       WRIGHT             MN   STORM CHASER

            .

&&

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
513 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSW BECKER            45.31N 93.89W
07/05/2016                   WRIGHT             MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POLE BARN BLOWN DOWN DEBRIS ON ROADWAY.

&&

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
514 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0457 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ANNANDALE               45.26N 94.12W
07/05/2016                   WRIGHT             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE DOWN BLOCKING HWY 55.

&&

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
515 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0508 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 S BUFFALO             45.15N 93.87W
07/05/2016  M55 MPH          WRIGHT             MN   AMATEUR RADIO

            .

&&

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
IRIS SYSTEM