Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
922 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...See updated information for land and marine areas below.

&&

.UPDATE...An early start to the morning convection. Current
thunderstorm coverage observed to be highest over southwest portion
of area and closer to the coast in areas where mlcape values are
highest and range in from 1000-1500 j/kg (a little less post
initiation). the initiation is very driven by outflow boundaries and
most deep convection now is fairly weak to modest with a few storms
producing very localized winds up to 40 mph. Thunderstorm motion is
to the south and southwest. Over the next several hours...main
impacts will be up to two inches of rain in an hour on an isolated
basis and in some cases prolific cloud to ground lightning. no doubt
the cloud cover will temper today's heat and maximum amount of thermodynamic
instability that could have been fully realized. So...this should
help to keep updraft intensity down a bit compared to yesterday
afternoon when sbcapes reached 5000 j/kg (3500-4000 for mlcapes).
Will assess need to modify max temps for this afternoon. /23 jmm

&&

.MARINE...Main impacts next few hours will be thunderstorms over
mobile bay...its nearshore waters and the mississippi sound.
Again...moving to south and southwest. Waterspouts are possible
through noon and again later this afternoon on fast moving outflow
boundaries that may traverse the marine area. Otherwise outside of
storms...expect south winds to increase to 8 to 13 knots generally
with seas generally 1 to 2 feet (higher near thunderstorm squalls).
New coastal waters package out shortly. /23 jmm

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 615 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
12Z issuance...General vfr conditions expected through the forecast.
Local drops into mvfr levels during the day/evening in isolated to
scattered tsra, along with strong variable direction winds. Fog
likely after 06z, especially in localities that receive heavy rains
today.

/16

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 452 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Friday night/...A weak shortwave moves south
over the fa today into this evening, rotating around an upper high
centered over the Central/Southern plains. With insolation today
limited by mid/upper level cloud cover, especially over western
portions of the fa, helping to counter-balance subsidence from the
upper high over the plains, temperatures closer to seasonal expected.
With a general northerly flow expected to control movement of the
storms, areas near the coast will see some Gulf breeze induced
showers enhancing the precip, but am not expecting this to move very
far inland. Most of todays activity is expected to form over and
north of the fa, then move south. Enough instability is expected to
be present (1000-1500j/kg mean layer Capes) for isolated strong to
severe pulse type thunderstorms. As for coverage, have went with a
blend of the dry NAM and wet ECMWF, creating a high end chance for
pops today.

Into this evening, with the activity from the last several days
lasting into the evening hours more than guidance was advertising,
have went above guidance, mainly for the first few hours. Have stuck
close with guidance temps, with nothing to suggest deviating
significantly, especially with mid/upper level cloud debris from any
activity to the north moving over the fa.

Looking at heat index values for the day, moisture levels remain
high enough for heat indices to generally rise into the 102 to 106
degree range, with a few localities rising into the 108 to 110
degree range. At this point, we do not expect enough general 108+
coverage to warrant a heat advisory. /16

SHORT TERM /Saturday Through Sunday night/...The upper level ridge
of high pressure will continue to flatten and retrograde westward
over the Four Corners Region and Desert Southwest through the
weekend, but the associated ridge axis should still continue to
stretch eastward across the Central and Southern Plains and into the
Tennessee Valley. An upper level trough/low located off the Eastern
Seaboard is meanwhile forecast to slowly move southwestward toward
the FL Peninsula through Sunday night. Our forecast area will remain
between these features through the weekend, with a generally weak
northeast to east flow aloft prevalent across our region. A series of
mid level impulses will continue to translate across our forecast
area within this mid level flow pattern and will interact with a
continued deeply moist airmass with precipitable water values
generally averaging between 1.75" and 2.0", ample afternoon
instability (MLCAPE values between 1500-2500 J/KG), and remnant
boundaries/the seabreeze to result in scattered showers and
thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday afternoons. We have generally
kept coverage in the 30-40% range both days, tapering off to 20% or
less in the evening/overnight hours. A few storms could be strong or
perhaps briefly severe at times with strong to locally damaging
winds, frequent lightning and very heavy rainfall each afternoon.

Otherwise, hot and humid conditions will persist into the weekend
with daytime highs mostly in the mid 90s over inland areas, and
around 90 to the lower 90s over the coast and beaches. Afternoon heat
indices will remain elevated in the 100-105 range, with isolated
occurrences up to around 108 both days. Lows both nights will
continue to range in the lower to mid 70s inland and in the upper 70s
to around 80 near the immediate coast and beaches. /21

LONG TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...The above mentioned upper
level low over the FL Peninsula Sunday is forecast to translate
westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico Monday, and toward the
northwest Gulf, southern LA and southwestern MS vicinity by Tuesday.
Lift to the north of this feature along with convergence along the
seabreeze may favor slightly better convective coverage around our
region Monday afternoon, but for now left POPs generally in the
scattered (40%) coverage range across most locations, but these may
need to be increased dependent on the positioning of the upper low.
Plentiful moisture and instability remains in place Tuesday through
Thursday as periodic shortwave impulses move over the area within
weak flow aloft between the departing upper trough to the west and a
building upper level ridge over the Western Atlantic. We will
maintain a chance of showers and storms across the area during the
day, tapering to slight chance at night through the extended period.
Little change in the seasonably warm/humid conditions is otherwise
expected, with daily highs continuing to range from the lower to mid
90s inland, and around 90 coast, with lows in the 70s at night. /21

MARINE...A weakly organized surface ridge will continue to stretch
west over the Southeastern states to Lower Mississippi River valley,
but am not expecting the ridge to be strong enough to bring an
organized southeast to south flow to area coastal waters. With the
generally light flow, little change in seas are expected. /16

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
627 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-231200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-MOBILE INLAND-BALDWIN INLAND-MOBILE CENTRAL-
BALDWIN CENTRAL-MOBILE COASTAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-
ESCAMBIA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
627 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
TODAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S OUTSIDE OF RAIN
AREAS...WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND
103 TO 107. ISOLATED LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REACH AS HIGH AS 108 TO 110.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A FEW STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH LOCALIZED STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS...POSSIBLY UP TO 50 TO 60 MPH. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD END ACROSS THE AREA BY MID TO
LATE EVENING... WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING OVERNIGHT. MOVEMENT OF THE
STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED DAILY THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AT TIMES...
ACCOMPANIED WITH BRIEF STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

AWAY FROM THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THUNDERSTORMS...ELEVATED HEAT INDEX
VALUES CONTINUE...CLIMBING INTO THE 102 TO 107 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS
SOME AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD EXPERIENCE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 110.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-231200-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
627 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH TODAY ACROSS AREA BAYS AND NEAR SHORE GULF
WATERS. WINDS...WAVES...AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOWER VISIBILITIES
IN HEAVY RAIN CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER MARINE
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

WINDS...WAVES...AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND LOWER VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED
WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER MARINE STORMS.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
843 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

ALZ263-265-221430-
MOBILE CENTRAL AL-MOBILE COASTAL AL-
843 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...SOUTH
CENTRAL MOBILE COUNTY UNTIL 930 AM CDT...

AT 843 AM CDT...THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR THEODORE.
THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
THEODORE AND ALABAMA PORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3049 8825 3062 8810 3052 8794 3033 8812
TIME...MOT...LOC 1343Z 154DEG 1KT 3052 8814

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1026 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

ALZ261>264-221630-
BALDWIN CENTRAL AL-MOBILE INLAND AL-MOBILE CENTRAL AL-
BALDWIN INLAND AL-
1026 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...WEST
CENTRAL BALDWIN AND NORTHEASTERN MOBILE COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 AM CDT...

AT 1024 AM CDT...THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR I65 AND AL
225...OR NEAR BAY MINETTE...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE...CHICKASAW...SATSUMA...CREOLA...
CHUNCHULA...STOCKTON...AXIS...I65 AND AL 158...
I65 AND I165 AND I65 AND AL 225.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3072 8821 3109 8820 3099 8775 3078 8778
TIME...MOT...LOC 1524Z 092DEG 18KT 3087 8787

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1052 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

ALZ261-262-221630-
MOBILE INLAND AL-BALDWIN INLAND AL-
1052 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

...ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHWESTERN BALDWIN AND NORTHEASTERN MOBILE COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 AM
CDT...

AT 1051 AM CDT...ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER MOUNT
VERNON...OR 13 MILES NORTH OF CREOLA...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOUNT VERNON AND MOVICO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3094 8804 3107 8814 3115 8798 3115 8795
      3108 8788
TIME...MOT...LOC 1551Z 050DEG 9KT 3108 8799