Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
444 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A DEEP CUTOFF UPPER LOW
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A
DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES CONTINUES TO FEED
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE COMBINATION
OF THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH NUMEROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND
NEAR RECORD PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES IS LEADING TO
VERY HEAVY RAIN JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
THE WEST COAST WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO KICK THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT THE PRIMARY MOISTURE
AXIS EASTWARD INTO OUR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
COUNTIES LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THROUGH TONIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8
INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE (WITH LOCALIZED DOUBLE AMOUNTS)...ON TOP
OF WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN. THE HIGHEST RISK OF SEEING FLASH FLOODING
IS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...
SPREADING EASTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...ALONG WITH HIGH
SURF AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
70S IN WESTERN AREAS TO NEAR 80 IN EASTERN AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S INLAND TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST. 13/JC

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...THE WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN TO A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF ON
SATURDAY WHILE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH OUT OF TEXAS AND INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. A DEEPLY MOIST AND DIFFLUENT SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN WILL SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL GULF INTO OUR FORECAST AREA WELL
TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAINING ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...SOME PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL (AT LEAST SEVERAL MORE INCHES IN ADDITION TO WHAT WILL
HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS) OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
SATURDAY AND THEN SPREADING MORE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE INITIAL SLOWER MOVEMENT SATURDAY THE
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUND
AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
CHOCTAW...WASHINGTON AND MOBILE COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THROUGH
SATURDAY. WILL KEEP POPS CATEGORICAL OVER THESE LOCATIONS SATURDAY...
THEN TAPERING OFF (FROM WEST TO EAST) TO CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING CONTINUES OVER
WESTERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA...THE FLOODING POTENTIAL STILL
DECREASES FARTHER TO THE EAST...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY
TAPERING TO 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.
LINGERING SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA
EARLY SUNDAY WILL END BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES MORE QUICKLY
ON OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND A DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
DOMINANT. DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. 12/DS

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...SOME MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE MOVING
TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND TO NEAR THE COAST BY
THURSDAY WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE
CONTINUE INTO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 EACH DAY AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60 EACH NIGHT. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA THROUGH 6 PM
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY
AND CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE MARINE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF VISIBILITY REDUCING HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANY STRONGER MARINE THUNDERSTORMS.
13/JC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  64  71  60 /  90  80 100  40
PENSACOLA   74  64  72  61 /  50  50  80  70
DESTIN      73  64  70  64 /  20  20  50  70
EVERGREEN   79  63  74  60 /  40  40  70  70
WAYNESBORO  72  63  72  58 /  90  70  90  50
CAMDEN      77  63  74  60 /  60  40  70  70
CRESTVIEW   79  62  76  60 /  20  30  50  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR ALZ265-266.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR ALZ263>266.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALZ051-052-261-
     263-265.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-
     206.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR FLZ202-204-206.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ631-632-650-
     655-670-675.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
553 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-121200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-MOBILE INLAND-BALDWIN INLAND-MOBILE CENTRAL-
BALDWIN CENTRAL-MOBILE COASTAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-
ESCAMBIA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
553 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRING FLOODING AND RISING
RIVERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND CHOCTAW...WASHINGTON AND MOBILE COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA.

A HIGH RISK OF POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
AREA BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH TALL BREAKER ACTION OF 5 TO 7 FEET
POUNDING INTO THE SURF ZONE.

TIDES BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL BRINGS THE POTENTIAL
OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVY
RAIN WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATE ON SATURDAY.

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-121200-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
553 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO
STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH SEAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
642 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016

MSZ067-075-076-078-111345-
STONE MS-PERRY MS-WAYNE MS-GREENE MS-
642 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN WAYNE...NORTHWESTERN
GREENE...PERRY AND STONE COUNTIES UNTIL 745 AM CST...

AT 642 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BAXTERVILLE TO 12
MILES SOUTHEAST OF POPLARVILLE TO NEAR WAVELAND...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WIGGINS...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...MCHENRY AND PERKINSTON.

LAT...LON 3091 8934 3091 8914 3143 8915 3143 8894
      3172 8894 3141 8881 3077 8890 3068 8898
      3068 8924 3065 8925 3065 8934
TIME...MOT...LOC 1242Z 214DEG 42KT 3107 8953 3072 8938 3023 8945