Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
608 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...IFR CEILINGS FROM 500 TO 900 FEET WILL PREVAIL ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VISIBILITIES WILL
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS...OR FROM 1 TO 4 STATUTE
MILES AS PERIODS OF RAIN...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS...
COMBINE WITH SEA FOG TO RESTRICT VISIBILITIES. SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016/

..HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA...

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...UPPER AIR MAPS SHOW ANOMALOUSLY
DEEP CUT-OFF LOW SPINNING IN PLACE OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF MEXICO
WHILE A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WAS POSITIONED FROM
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...NORTHWARD TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST.
BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE SCALE PRESSURE SYSTEMS...A DEEP PLUME OF HIGH
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT AIR (PWATS SOME 250% OF NORMAL) WAS
ALIGNED NORTH TO SOUTH FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA TO WELL
SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST. WITHIN THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF DEEP
MOISTURE...MID LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUE EJECTING NORTHWARD IN THE
MEAN...DIFFLUENT HIGH LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
ENHANCED ASCENT AND REPEATED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION EAST OF A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...TO OFF THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST. SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE AXIS OF HEAVIER
RAINS INCHING IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION. THE NEAR TERM FORECAST CALLS
FOR HEAVY RAINS TO BEGIN SPREADING EAST INTO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE IN A NEARLY FIXED STATE OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THROUGH FRIDAY...WHERE THE
HIGHEST MOISTURE AXIS ANOMALY SETS UP (PWATS 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES). AT
SAME TIME...A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUING TO EJECT
NORTHWARD WITHIN THE DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW ENHANCES ASCENT TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT OVER THE MID-SOUTH.
OTHER ITEMS TO NOTE IS THE DIFFLUENT CONFIGURATION OF THE 1000-500
MILLIBAR THICKNESS PATTERN WHICH FAVORS BACK BUILDING OF HEAVY RAINS
AND REPEATED MOTION OVER THE SAME AREAS. OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES...AS ADVERTISED IN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS...MAY SET UP A WEAK MESOSCALE BOUNDARY WHICH CAN BRING HEAVY
RAIN PROBLEMS BY PROVIDING A LOW LEVEL FOCUS. THE POTENTIAL OF
EXCESSIVE RAINS REMAINS IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST AND FORECASTERS
HAVE ADJUSTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
EASTWARD TO INCLUDE CHOCTAW COUNTY IN ALABAMA...SOUTH TO MOBILE
COUNTY. MORE DETAILS ON STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE NOTED IN
THE SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST IN THE MID
60S. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST NEAR THE COAST WHERE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SIGNALING DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S WEST AND A BIT WARMER IN THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80
IN THE EASTERN ZONES.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
EVENING. THUS...NO EXTENSION ANTICIPATED FOLLOWING EXPIRATION AT 7
PM AT THIS TIME. A LOOK AT COASTAL WATER LEVELS REFLECT 2 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FETCH. POTENTIAL OF
MINOR BEACH EROSION CONTINUES. HIGH RISK OF POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP
CURRENTS CONTINUES AT THE BEACHES..ALONG WITH TALL BREAKERS AND
POUNDING HIGH SURF. /10

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...THE DEEP UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF TX FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE OPENING INTO A NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ARKLATEX AND MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. A DEEPLY MOIST AND DIFFLUENT
SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL GULF
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA WELL IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS. THE LATEST SUITE OF SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO SPREAD OVER SOUTHEAST MS AND ADJACENT
SOUTHWEST AL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND WILL KEEP POPS
CATEGORICAL OVER THESE LOCATIONS...WITH COVERAGE TAPERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE RANGE [20-40 PERCENT] OVER FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS AND ADJACENT FAR SOUTHWEST AL THROUGH
SATURDAY...WHERE THE LATEST FORECAST IS CALLING FOR 4 TO 8 INCHES OF
RAIN WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS MAINLY WEST OF A BUTLER TO MOBILE
LINE. THE FLOODING POTENTIAL DECREASES FARTHER TO EAST...WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY TAPERING TO 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH THE LEAST AMOUNTS OVER OUR FAR EASTERN
ZONES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH
HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE LOWER 70S IN THE AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN...AND IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

THE REMNANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE A SECONDARY UPPER
LEVEL LOW PUSHES FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO OK SATURDAY NIGHT THEN
TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL
BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT FINALLY SCOURS TO
THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE SECONDARY UPPER LOW...
SO A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AWAY
FROM THE COAST...LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST...WITH LOWS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHTS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. /21

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE DEEP LAYERS SHOULD MOISTEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD
OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING TOWARD
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND TOWARD THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE CONTINUE INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. /21

MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
POSITIONED OFF THE SOUTHEAST STATES COAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
TEXAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST. SHOWERS
AND STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF VISIBILITY REDUCING HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANY STRONGER MARINE
THUNDERSTORMS. /10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ALZ051>060-261>266.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ALZ051-052-261-263-265.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR ALZ263>266.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR ALZ265-266.

FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ201>206.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR FLZ202-204-
     206.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-
     206.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR FLZ202-204-206.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ631-632-650-
     655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ630-633>635.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
133 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-112000-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-MOBILE INLAND-BALDWIN INLAND-MOBILE CENTRAL-
BALDWIN CENTRAL-MOBILE COASTAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-
ESCAMBIA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
133 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30 MPH...OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

A HIGH RISK OF POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
AREA BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH TALL BREAKER ACTION OF 5 TO 7 FEET
POUNDING INTO THE SURF ZONE.

TIDES BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL BRINGS THE POTENTIAL
OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD SLOWLY
EAST OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY.

DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND A HIGH RISK OF POTENTIALLY DEADLY
RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA. TALL BREAKERS OF 5 TO 7 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO POUND AREA
BEACHES ON FRIDAY...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SATURDAY.

TIDES BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL BRINGS THE POTENTIAL OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THROUGH FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND
TYPICAL COASTAL FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD SLOWLY
EAST OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN MAY BRING RISING RIVERS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 4 TO 8
INCHES EXPECTED...WITH THESE AMOUNTS POTENTIALLY DOUBLED WHERE
HEAVIER RAINS MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS FROM EARLY FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
HAS BEEN EXPANDED EASTWARD TO INCLUDE CHOCTAW COUNTY IN
ALABAMA...SOUTH TO MOBILE COUNTY.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ON FRIDAY. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS
EVOLVING WEATHER SITUATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-112000-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
133 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS IN FREQUENT GUSTS...ROUGH
WATERS ON BAYS AND SOUNDS AND HIGH SEAS FROM 8 TO 11 FEET WILL BRING
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS IN FREQUENT GUSTS...ROUGH
WATERS ON BAYS AND SOUNDS AND HIGH SEAS WILL BRING HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.