Special Weather Statement, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
345 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...Forecast Confidence...High

Thunderstorms continue to develop this afternoon and are expected to
move across southern Wisconsin late afternoon into the evening.
Still looks like a favorable setup for severe thunderstorms, so
Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued into early evening for
everywhere except the northern forecast area counties.

Showers/storms will wind down late this evening in the southeast,
with dry weather overnight as high pressure quickly moves in. Could
see a little fog develop later tonight, likely mainly confined to
the Wisconsin River valley.

It should be a very nice day Tuesday, with mostly sunny skies
expected under high pressure. Highs will be above normal once again.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...Forecast confidence medium.

A trough of low pressure and associated low to mid level warm
advection and frontogenesis will develop newd from NE to central WI
from Tue nt-Thu. The nose of the low level jet will focus across
central WI much of this time where numerous showers and tstorms
including heavy rainfall is expected. Did mention heavy rainfall
in the forecast north of Madison but the tendency for MCSs to move
to the right of the mean wind could certainly result in the heavy
rainfall developing farther swd during this period. Fairly large CAPE
values will develop Wed afternoon into the evening which will
be the prime period for a strong MCS and heavy rainfall. A
shortwave trough will approach Wed nt and pass through the area
on Thu so good chances of showers and tstorms to continue.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...Forecast confidence medium.

A front will then stall in the vicinity of srn WI into the weekend
with ridging aloft ahead of a sharp upper trough and associated
cold front moving east across the Great Plains. Thus tstorm
chances will continue with above normal temps and humidity. The
cold front is expected to pass Mon night.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and early evening as a
shortwave moves through the forecast area. Some of the storms could
be severe.

Will likely see some lower visibilities with the storms this
afternoon and evening. Fog development tonight will likely be
confined to low lying areas such as the Wisconsin River valley.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday as high
pressure quickly builds in behind the trough.

&&

.MARINE...

Southwest winds will ease this afternoon, becoming lighter and
westerly in the evening. Thus the 6 pm Small Craft Advisory
expiration time still looks good.

Winds will be lighter Tuesday under high pressure.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM CDT this evening for LMZ643>646.

&&

TONIGHT/Tuesday AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday...Gehring

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
315 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-202015-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
315 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY AT TIMES FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO A FRONT STALLING OVER THE AREA. HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF MADISON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

LMZ643>646-202015-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
315 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO
WINTHROP HARBOR ILLINOIS UNTIL 8 PM. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING DUE
TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE ARE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO A STATIONARY FRONT.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX
MG

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