Special Weather Statement, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
345 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...Forecast Confidence...High

Thunderstorms continue to develop this afternoon and are expected to
move across southern Wisconsin late afternoon into the evening.
Still looks like a favorable setup for severe thunderstorms, so
Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued into early evening for
everywhere except the northern forecast area counties.

Showers/storms will wind down late this evening in the southeast,
with dry weather overnight as high pressure quickly moves in. Could
see a little fog develop later tonight, likely mainly confined to
the Wisconsin River valley.

It should be a very nice day Tuesday, with mostly sunny skies
expected under high pressure. Highs will be above normal once again.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...Forecast confidence medium.

A trough of low pressure and associated low to mid level warm
advection and frontogenesis will develop newd from NE to central WI
from Tue nt-Thu. The nose of the low level jet will focus across
central WI much of this time where numerous showers and tstorms
including heavy rainfall is expected. Did mention heavy rainfall
in the forecast north of Madison but the tendency for MCSs to move
to the right of the mean wind could certainly result in the heavy
rainfall developing farther swd during this period. Fairly large CAPE
values will develop Wed afternoon into the evening which will
be the prime period for a strong MCS and heavy rainfall. A
shortwave trough will approach Wed nt and pass through the area
on Thu so good chances of showers and tstorms to continue.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...Forecast confidence medium.

A front will then stall in the vicinity of srn WI into the weekend
with ridging aloft ahead of a sharp upper trough and associated
cold front moving east across the Great Plains. Thus tstorm
chances will continue with above normal temps and humidity. The
cold front is expected to pass Mon night.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and early evening as a
shortwave moves through the forecast area. Some of the storms could
be severe.

Will likely see some lower visibilities with the storms this
afternoon and evening. Fog development tonight will likely be
confined to low lying areas such as the Wisconsin River valley.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday as high
pressure quickly builds in behind the trough.

&&

.MARINE...

Southwest winds will ease this afternoon, becoming lighter and
westerly in the evening. Thus the 6 pm Small Craft Advisory
expiration time still looks good.

Winds will be lighter Tuesday under high pressure.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM CDT this evening for LMZ643>646.

&&

TONIGHT/Tuesday AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday...Gehring

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
315 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-202015-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
315 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY AT TIMES FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO A FRONT STALLING OVER THE AREA. HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF MADISON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

LMZ643>646-202015-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
315 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO
WINTHROP HARBOR ILLINOIS UNTIL 8 PM. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING DUE
TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE ARE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO A STATIONARY FRONT.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX
MG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
147 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

WIZ051-052-058-191915-
SHEBOYGAN-FOND DU LAC-DODGE-
147 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN SHEBOYGAN AND
SOUTHEASTERN FOND DU LAC COUNTIES...

AT 146 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE CLUSTERED NEAR LOMIRA...OR
8 MILES SOUTH OF FOND DU LAC...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PLYMOUTH...LOMIRA...CAMPBELLSPORT...RANDOM LAKE...ELKHART LAKE...
ASHFORD...BYRON...GREENBUSH...EDEN...CASCADE...BROWNSVILLE...ADELL...
WALDO...ST. CLOUD...GLENBEULAH...BATAVIA...WAUCOUSTA...BEECHWOOD...
DUNDEE AND SILVER CREEK.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4355 8792 4359 8850 4369 8850 4377 8832
      4389 8796 4389 8794
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 261DEG 35KT 4367 8840

MRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
220 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

WIZ052-059-060-066-192000-
MILWAUKEE-SHEBOYGAN-OZAUKEE-WASHINGTON-
220 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WASHINGTON...SHEBOYGAN
AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES...

AT 219 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE CLUSTERED NEAR KEWASKUM...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHEBOYGAN...WEST BEND...MEQUON...HARTFORD...GRAFTON...CEDARBURG...
PORT WASHINGTON...PLYMOUTH...SHEBOYGAN FALLS...JACKSON...SLINGER...
SAUKVILLE...KEWASKUM...THIENSVILLE...HOWARDS GROVE...OOSTBURG...
BELGIUM...FREDONIA...KOHLER AND CEDAR GROVE.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN ARE OCCURRING WITH
THESE STORMS. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A
THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4366 8772 4356 8779 4346 8780 4337 8788
      4326 8791 4321 8790 4320 8842 4337 8842
      4337 8840 4343 8840 4354 8832 4354 8816
      4366 8816 4386 8773 4378 8771
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 263DEG 32KT 4355 8815

MRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
238 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

WIZ056-057-192030-
SAUK-COLUMBIA-
238 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SAUK AND NORTHWESTERN COLUMBIA
COUNTIES...

AT 237 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHEAST
OF LA FARGE...OR 19 MILES EAST OF VIROQUA...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BARABOO...REEDSBURG...PRAIRIE DU SAC...SAUK CITY...WISCONSIN DELLS...
LAKE WISCONSIN...LAKE DELTON...SPRING GREEN...WEST BARABOO...PLAIN...
NORTH FREEDOM...MERRIMAC...LA VALLE...ROCK SPRINGS...LOGANVILLE...
IRONTON...LIME RIDGE...LELAND...HILL POINT AND DEVILS LAKE ST PARK.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4364 8962 4357 8966 4356 8960 4338 8960
      4336 8965 4336 8967 4331 8973 4327 8972
      4324 8977 4324 8980 4320 8985 4319 8990
      4320 9000 4315 9005 4316 9009 4316 9018
      4355 9019 4356 9031 4364 9031
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 280DEG 55KT 4362 9050

SPM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
317 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

WIZ046-047-057-192100-
GREEN LAKE-COLUMBIA-MARQUETTE-
317 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN COLUMBIA...GREEN LAKE
AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES...

AT 316 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER WISCONSIN
DELLS...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PORTAGE...WISCONSIN DELLS...LAKE DELTON...PARDEEVILLE...MONTELLO...
MARKESAN...WESTFIELD...PRINCETON...GREEN LAKE...CAMBRIA...PACKWAUKEE...
MANCHESTER...WYOCENA...OXFORD...ENDEAVOR...FRIESLAND...KINGSTON...
MARQUETTE...BRIGGSVILLE AND GLEN OAK.

LAT...LON 4363 8889 4363 8901 4345 8901 4355 8959
      4356 8961 4357 8973 4360 8972 4361 8978
      4364 8978 4364 8960 4388 8960 4389 8889
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 277DEG 42KT 4366 8974

MRC

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