Alert archive / Wisconsin / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Milwaukee, WI

July 21, 2016Ozaukee County, Waukesha County, Wisconsin

NWS Milwaukee, WI issued this special weather statement at Jul 21, 2016, 10:12 AM CDT for Ozaukee County, Waukesha County, Wisconsin. It was in force for 33 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 21, 2016, 10:12 AM CDT (15:12 UTC)
Expired: Jul 21, 2016, 10:45 AM CDT
In force: 33 min
Issued by: NWS Milwaukee, WI

Counties Ozaukee County, WI, Waukesha County, WI

The radar

The Milwaukee radar (KMKX), 57 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 3.2 hours before the alert went out and 137 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1904 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -96 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 686 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 21 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 152 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 154 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Milwaukee, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 21, 4:36 AM CDT, 5 hours 36 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 21, 4:36 AM CDT, 5 hours 36 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
436 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...The severe MCS over nw WI and ern MN continues
to move sewd being fueled by strong thetae advection and resultant
MUCAPEs of 3000 joules. Do not see why it would not continue into
srn WI and went with likely PoPs over the nrn and ern CWA for now.
Believe the SVR potential will remain with the MCS through the
morning. Due to the rain cooled air and morning cloudiness,
cancelled the heat headlines north of Madison and Milwaukee.
Confidence was lower on taking the same action elsewhere. Also those
areas may still reach heat criteria on Friday whereas to the north
it probably won't. Only 20-30 PoPs for thunderstorms from later
this afternoon and tonight.

FRIDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.

There is a good chance for quiet weather across southern WI on
Friday. Any convection today and/or tonight should push outflow
boundaries south of the WI border by Fri. If not, a surface trough
making its way through the region should be south of WI by midday.

The hot air will have a chance to build into central WI and expand
into south central WI during the day Fri, so as long as there are no
thunderstorms, we should be able to reach heat advisory criteria in
the southwest half of the MKX forecast area Friday.

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.

Warm air advection (WAA), the nose of a low level jet and weak
shortwave activity will bring a decent chance for showers and
thunderstorms to WI Saturday. There is a better chance in the
afternoon than morning. Persistent WAA will keep the thunderstorm
chances going Sat night. Southern WI is in a marginal risk for
severe storms due to decent elevated CAPE.

A stronger shortwave trough tracking through the Northern Plains
will drag a surface trough/cold front through WI Sunday afternoon.
There should be thunderstorms with this front, with a chance for
severe due to strong cape but only marginal shear.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.

It looks like a cooler and quieter weather pattern is in store for
southern WI for the first half of next week with high pressure over
the Great Lakes.

Both the GFS and ECMWF are showing a potent shortwave tracking
through the Upper Great Lakes for the middle of the week which will
bring our next chance for storms.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A low stratus deck will continue over south
central WI this morning until thunderstorms pass from nw to se
through srn WI from 1330z through 1800z. Strong gusty winds, reduced
vsbys and cigs are expectd with the storms. Scattered cumulus is
then expected afterward. Tonight, stratus and light fog may form
especially due to the wet conditions from today's rain.

&&

.MARINE...Sly flow is expected today and tonight but the wind flow
will likely be interrupted by a thunderstorm complex that will pass
later this morning. Strong gusty and variable winds are possible
during that time. Dense fog may occur at times from this afternoon
into the weekend due to a very moist airmass over the relatively
cooler waters of Lake MI.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from noon today to 7 PM CDT Friday for
     WIZ056-062>072.

LM...None.
&&

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Gehring
Friday THROUGH Wednesday...MRC

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 21, 9:36 AM CDT, 36 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
936 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-221445-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
936 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF A PORTAGE...TO COLUMBUS...TO
FORT ATKINSON...TO OAK CREEK LINE. A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS AREA OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IS THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS. A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN OUTLOOKED FOR
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM
MILWAUKEE TO MADISON...AND SOUTH TO THE ILLINOIS BORDER...AND
ALSO INCLUDING SAUK...IOWA...AND LAFAYETTE COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT ON FRIDAY FROM MILWAUKEE
TO MADISON...AND SOUTH TO THE ILLINOIS BORDER...AND ALSO
INCLUDING SAUK...IOWA...AND LAFAYETTE COUNTIES.

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY...AND MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LMZ643>646-221445-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
936 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY AROUND AND NORTH OF WIND POINT. A LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS
AREA OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IS THE MAIN
HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
HAS BEEN OUTLOOKED FOR THIS AREA AS WELL.

AREAS OF FOG...THAT MAY BECOME DENSE...IS POSSIBLE OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...DUE TO A VERY MOIST AIRMASS FLOWING OVER THE
RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND...DUE TO A VERY MOIST AIRMASS FLOWING OVER THE
RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

WOOD
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 21, 8:49 AM CDT, 1 hour 23 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
849 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0847 AM     TSTM WND GST     BERLIN                  43.97N 88.95W
07/21/2016  M44 MPH          GREEN LAKE         WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            OBSERVED AT BERLIN BY EMERGENCY MANAGMENT.

&&

RSCHAAR

Local storm report, Jul 21, 9:11 AM CDT, 1 hour 1 minute before

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Special weather statement, Jul 21, 9:28 AM CDT, 44 minutes before

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Local storm report, Jul 21, 9:43 AM CDT, 29 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
943 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0923 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 WSW FOND DU LAC       43.77N 88.49W
07/21/2016  M52 MPH          FOND DU LAC        WI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION FOND DU LAC AIRPORT /FLD/.

&&

SPM

Special weather statement, Jul 21, 9:43 AM CDT, 29 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
943 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

WIZ051-052-057>060-063-064-211515-
JEFFERSON-SHEBOYGAN-OZAUKEE-FOND DU
LAC-COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-DODGE-DANE-
943 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
WASHINGTON...SHEBOYGAN... SOUTHEASTERN COLUMBIA...NORTHWESTERN
JEFFERSON...NORTHERN OZAUKEE... DODGE...NORTHEASTERN DANE AND
SOUTHERN FOND DU LAC COUNTIES...

AT 941 AM CDT...THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM NEAR HOWARDS GROVE IN
SHEBOYGAN COUNTY SOUTHWEST TO PARDEEVILLE IN COLUMBIA COUNTY ARE
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.  A FEW GUSTS COULD APPROACH 50 MPH.  REMAIN ALERT AS THESE
STORMS PASS THROUGH THE AREA.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHEBOYGAN...FOND DU LAC...WEST BEND...WATERTOWN...BEAVER DAM...
HARTFORD...WAUPUN...PLYMOUTH...SHEBOYGAN FALLS...JACKSON...
MAYVILLE...SLINGER...COLUMBUS...SAUKVILLE...KEWASKUM...MARSHALL...
HORICON...WATERLOO...HOWARDS GROVE AND JUNEAU.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 4357 8779 4354 8780 4349 8779 4343 8783
      4309 8906 4346 8943 4389 8791 4389 8773
      4381 8773 4376 8770 4374 8771 4370 8770
TIME...MOT...LOC 1441Z 314DEG 38KT 4356 8836

DAVIS

Special weather statement, Jul 21, 10:12 AM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1012 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

WIZ058>060-064>066-211545-
JEFFERSON-MILWAUKEE-OZAUKEE-WAUKESHA-WASHINGTON-DODGE-
1012 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

THE LEADING EDGE OF A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHES FROM
FREDONIA IN OZAUKEE COUNTY...SOUTHEAST TO NEAR WATERTOWN. THEY WILL
AFFECT SOUTHERN WASHINGTON...NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON...OZAUKEE...
SOUTHEASTERN DODGE...NORTHERN MILWAUKEE AND WAUKESHA COUNTIES.

AT 1008 AM CDT THE STORMS WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MILWAUKEE...WAUKESHA...WEST ALLIS...WAUWATOSA...NEW BERLIN...
BROOKFIELD...MENOMONEE FALLS...WEST BEND...MEQUON...HARTFORD...
WHITEFISH BAY...PEWAUKEE...BROWN DEER...GRAFTON...CEDARBURG...
PORT WASHINGTON...SUSSEX...HARTLAND...DELAFIELD AND JACKSON.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 4346 8780 4338 8787 4330 8789 4326 8791
      4318 8788 4312 8790 4310 8787 4307 8787
      4291 8841 4326 8866 4352 8780
TIME...MOT...LOC 1508Z 320DEG 37KT 4323 8840

DAVIS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Milwaukee, WI issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 21, 8:18 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Green Lake, Marquette	57 min
Jul 21, 8:41 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Fond du Lac	64 min
Jul 21, 8:49 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Marquette	26 min
Jul 21, 9:08 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Columbia, Dodge, Green Lake, Marquette	37 min
Jul 21, 9:21 AM CDT	Special Marine Warning	MKX		114 min
Jul 21, 9:28 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MKX	Sheboygan	62 min
Jul 21, 9:43 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MKX	Columbia, Dodge, Ozaukee, Sheboygan, Washington	32 min
Jul 21, 10:46 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MKX	Milwaukee, Racine	29 min
Jul 21, 10:49 AM CDT	Special Marine Warning	MKX		86 min
Jul 21, 11:13 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MKX	Kenosha, Racine	32 min
Jul 21, 11:42 AM CDT	Heat Advisory	MKX	Dane, Green, Iowa, Jefferson, Kenosha, Lafayette and 6 more	31 hr
Jul 21, 4:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Columbia, Green Lake, Marquette	60 min
Jul 21, 4:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Columbia, Sauk	56 min
Jul 21, 4:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Columbia, Dodge, Green Lake, Marquette	55 min
Jul 21, 5:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Columbia, Dodge, Fond du Lac, Green Lake	62 min
Jul 21, 5:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Columbia, Dane, Sauk	65 min
Jul 21, 5:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Dodge, Jefferson, Waukesha	60 min
Jul 21, 5:38 PM CDT	Special Marine Warning	MKX		112 min
Jul 21, 5:48 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MKX	Dane	57 min
Jul 21, 5:51 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MKX	Washington	54 min
Jul 21, 6:03 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Columbia, Dane, Jefferson, Rock	42 min
Jul 21, 6:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Dodge, Racine, Rock, Walworth, Washington, Waukesha	67 min
Jul 21, 6:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Dane	45 min
Jul 21, 6:21 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MKX	Milwaukee, Ozaukee	54 min
Jul 21, 6:23 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MKX	Columbia, Dane, Jefferson, Rock, Sauk	3 hr
Jul 21, 6:32 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MKX	Rock	58 min
Jul 21, 6:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Kenosha, Racine, Rock, Walworth	54 min
Jul 21, 6:37 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MKX	Columbia, Dane, Jefferson, Sauk	3 hr
Jul 21, 6:40 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MKX	Kenosha, Racine	65 min
Jul 21, 6:47 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MKX	Sauk	3 hr

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Wisconsin, 2016 Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.