Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Milwaukee, WI

939 
WWUS53 KMKX 211357
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
857 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

WIC077-211415-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0045.000000T0000Z-160721T1415Z/
MARQUETTE WI-
857 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN MARQUETTE COUNTY...

AT 857 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF MONTELLO...OR 13 MILES NORTH OF PORTAGE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WESTFIELD...LAWRENCE...PACKWAUKEE...OXFORD...ENDEAVOR...
BRIGGSVILLE AND GLEN OAK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4364 8924 4364 8960 4397 8960
TIME...MOT...LOC 1357Z 311DEG 36KT 4373 8952 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

SPM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
436 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...The severe MCS over nw WI and ern MN continues
to move sewd being fueled by strong thetae advection and resultant
MUCAPEs of 3000 joules. Do not see why it would not continue into
srn WI and went with likely PoPs over the nrn and ern CWA for now.
Believe the SVR potential will remain with the MCS through the
morning. Due to the rain cooled air and morning cloudiness,
cancelled the heat headlines north of Madison and Milwaukee.
Confidence was lower on taking the same action elsewhere. Also those
areas may still reach heat criteria on Friday whereas to the north
it probably won't. Only 20-30 PoPs for thunderstorms from later
this afternoon and tonight.

FRIDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.

There is a good chance for quiet weather across southern WI on
Friday. Any convection today and/or tonight should push outflow
boundaries south of the WI border by Fri. If not, a surface trough
making its way through the region should be south of WI by midday.

The hot air will have a chance to build into central WI and expand
into south central WI during the day Fri, so as long as there are no
thunderstorms, we should be able to reach heat advisory criteria in
the southwest half of the MKX forecast area Friday.

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.

Warm air advection (WAA), the nose of a low level jet and weak
shortwave activity will bring a decent chance for showers and
thunderstorms to WI Saturday. There is a better chance in the
afternoon than morning. Persistent WAA will keep the thunderstorm
chances going Sat night. Southern WI is in a marginal risk for
severe storms due to decent elevated CAPE.

A stronger shortwave trough tracking through the Northern Plains
will drag a surface trough/cold front through WI Sunday afternoon.
There should be thunderstorms with this front, with a chance for
severe due to strong cape but only marginal shear.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.

It looks like a cooler and quieter weather pattern is in store for
southern WI for the first half of next week with high pressure over
the Great Lakes.

Both the GFS and ECMWF are showing a potent shortwave tracking
through the Upper Great Lakes for the middle of the week which will
bring our next chance for storms.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A low stratus deck will continue over south
central WI this morning until thunderstorms pass from nw to se
through srn WI from 1330z through 1800z. Strong gusty winds, reduced
vsbys and cigs are expectd with the storms. Scattered cumulus is
then expected afterward. Tonight, stratus and light fog may form
especially due to the wet conditions from today's rain.

&&

.MARINE...Sly flow is expected today and tonight but the wind flow
will likely be interrupted by a thunderstorm complex that will pass
later this morning. Strong gusty and variable winds are possible
during that time. Dense fog may occur at times from this afternoon
into the weekend due to a very moist airmass over the relatively
cooler waters of Lake MI.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from noon today to 7 PM CDT Friday for
     WIZ056-062>072.

LM...None.
&&

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Gehring
Friday THROUGH Wednesday...MRC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
405 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-220915-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
405 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IS THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
HAS BEEN OUTLOOKED FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM
MILWAUKEE TO MADISON...AND SOUTH TO THE ILLINOIS BORDER AND ALSO
INCLUDING SAUK...IOWA...AND LAFAYETTE COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT ON FRIDAY FROM MILWAUKEE
TO MADISON...AND SOUTH TO THE ILLINOIS BORDER AND ALSO INCLUDING
SAUK...IOWA...AND LAFAYETTE COUNTIES.

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT AND AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LMZ643>646-220915-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
405 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS IS THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN OUTLOOKED FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND
LAKE MICHIGAN.

AREAS OF FOG...THAT MAY BECOME DENSE...IS POSSIBLE OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN DUE TO A VERY MOIST AIRMASS FLOWING OVER THE RELATIVELY
COOLER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND
DUE TO A VERY MOIST AIRMASS FLOWING OVER THE RELATIVELY COOLER
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX
MG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
849 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0847 AM     TSTM WND GST     BERLIN                  43.97N 88.95W
07/21/2016  M44 MPH          GREEN LAKE         WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            OBSERVED AT BERLIN BY EMERGENCY MANAGMENT.

&&

RSCHAAR