Special Weather Statement, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
343 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

500 mb vorticity maximum over northwestern Wisconsin is expected to
slide southeast through central and east central Wisconsin by 06Z
Monday. Strong vorticity advection with this feature, along with a
wind shift boundary, were supporting an area of showers and
thunderstorms across northwest to north central Wisconsin, with more
scattered activity southwest of there into southeast Minnesota.

These showers and storms should continue to slide southeast across
the forecast area into the early evening hours. The northern and
northeastern counties will have the highest POPs, closest to the
track of the 500 mb vorticity maximum.

Area forecast soundings from RAP showing perhaps a few hundred J/kg
of mean layer CAPE in the northern portions of the area. Mean layer
CAPE is pretty low further to the south.

Still, with the rather strong deep layer shear of 35 to 40 knots,
and the gusty low level winds, any showers/storms will be capable of
producing gusty winds. Small hail may be possible in the northern
counties. SPC has north central portions of the area in a marginal
risk for severe storms, which implies an isolated severe storm is
possible. The gusty winds would be the main hazard.

A quiet period is expected later tonight into early Monday morning,
before more 500 mb vorticity maxima move through the region later
Monday morning and afternoon. Kept chance pops going for this
period, highest in the late afternoon. Area forecast soundings
suggest a little more mean layer CAPE than this afternoon, with
similar deep layer shear values. Thus, gusty winds and perhaps small
hail would be possible with any storms.

Mild lows in the middle 50s to around 60 are expected tonight. Gusty
west winds Monday should bring highs into the middle 70s at least,
with upper 70s possible given today's trends.

Monday night through Wednesday night...Forecast confidence medium.

A few showers may linger early Mon eve in the wake of the cold
front. Otherwise, small chances of showers will continue
throughout the night as a shortwave trough within nwly flow aloft
moves across the area. Forecast soundings do become fairly moist
up to 700 mb with this feature. Some of these lgt showers could
linger into Tue am. Another strong shortwave trough will then
track from Upper MI to lower MI Tue nt with the associated sfc
trough/cold front passage Tue nt over S WI. Fcst soundings do
indicate some moistening, thus continued small PoPs for Tue aft
and night, mainly over the eastern half of S WI. High pressure and
mostly clear skies to then prevail Wed and Wed nt. A broad upper
ridge will be over the Rocky Mountains at this time with height
rises over S WI. Temps will be slightly below normal during this
period due to the nwly flow.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday...Forecast confidence medium.

A broad upper ridge over the Great Plains will gradually shift ewd
to the Upper MS River Valley for the weekend. At the sfc, low
pressure will track around the upper ridge, diving sewd across the
northern Great Lakes or Ontario for Fri-Sat. This will bring a
surge of swly winds and the passage of a warm front Thu nt and Fri
with the trailing cold front to then stall in the vicinity of S WI
for the weekend. There are chances of tstorms with the warm
advection Thu nt into Fri but with only slight chances at times
for the weekend. The stalled front will not be very active with a
lack of dynamics and capping. Very warm temps and increasing
humidity is expected.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected tonight and Monday across TAF
sites. Gusty west winds are expected into early this evening, with
frequent gusts to 30 knots. These winds will weaken somewhat later
this evening and overnight, before becoming gusty out of the west
once again by late morning Monday. These gusty westerly winds should
linger Monday afternoon into early Monday evening.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are anticipated into early
evening across the area. Gusty winds are possible with any of the
showers and storms.

Will continue with the vicinity thunder wording in TAFs, as there is
some uncertainty with areal coverage and timing. Brief 2 mile
visibilities are possible in the showers/storms. Scattered to broken
cumulus clouds are expected as well into early evening, before
dissipating later this evening.

Another decent chance for showers and a few thunderstorms will occur
late Monday morning into the afternoon, as another trough of low
pressure moves through the region. Again, gusty winds are possible
in any showers and storms.

&&

.MARINE...

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the nearshore waters of
Lake Michigan into early this evening. A tight pressure gradient and
good mixing near the shoreline will continue to allow for gusty west
winds to continue during this period. Frequent gusts to 30 knots are
expected near the shore, with the marine inversion limiting gusts
further out toward open water.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are anticipated into early
this evening, moving southeast over the nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan. May see gusty winds with any showers or storms.

Another Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed for Monday late
morning into the early evening, as the pressure gradient remains
tight with good low level mixing once again near the shoreline.
This should result in frequent west wind gusts to 25 knots or so.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening for LMZ643>646.

&&

TONIGHT/Monday AND AVIATION/MARINE...Wood
Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday...Gehring

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
341 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-062045-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
341 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF MADISON AND
MILWAUKEE. A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST
NORTH OF MADISON AND MILWAUKEE FOR THE GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A WARM FRONT BRINGING MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL BRING CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SLIGHT
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES FOR THE WEEKEND AS
A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LMZ643>646-062045-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
341 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FOR
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF NORTH POINT
LIGHTHOUSE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN
ON MONDAY.

A WARM FRONT BRINGING MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL BRING CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SLIGHT
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES FOR THE WEEKEND AS
A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

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