Small Craft Advisory 52, NWS Milwaukee, WI

820 
WHUS73 KMKX 052022
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
322 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016

...GUSTY WEST WINDS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...

.A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GUSTY WEST
WINDS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH. WAVES WILL REMAIN IN THE 1 TO
2 FOOT RANGE...HIGHEST TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS.

GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY...WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY.

LMZ643>646-060100-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0052.000000T0000Z-160606T0100Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
322 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS: WEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
  THEN DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

* WAVES: 1 TO 2 FEET...HIGHEST TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
WOOD
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
351 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Vorticity maxima over northeastern CWA that shows well in water
vapor satellite imagery still kicking off a few showers, mainly over
the lake. The 500 mb trough will push east of the area between 10Z
and 12Z with subsidence behind the trough ending this round of
showers.

Next chance for isolated/scattered showers comes with weak forcing
ahead of next short wave that drops into central WI this afternoon
and brushes the far NE CWA. Forecast soundings most-unstable CAPE
struggling to reach 500 J/kg but effective shear rises with
increasing winds aloft and veering with warm advection ahead of the
short wave. With equilibrium levels exceeding -10C will put in
slight chance of thunder.

RAP, GFS and NAM forecast soundings also show deep mixing,
especially over the western CWA that taps 35-knot winds. Upped wind
gusts into the mid 20 knots but could go higher. Should see high
temperatures reach the mid to upper 70s before increasing clouds
and the showers/isolated thunderstorms move in.

Will linger a low chance for showers into the evening with all of
the models taking omega south of the CWA by 06Z with forcing for
next short wave remaining to the north of the CWA overnight. Enough
mixing with gradient winds to hold lows in the mid 50s with skies
becoming partly cloudy.

.MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT - Confidence...Medium
500 millibar vort max is proggd to be situated vcnty cntrl or srn MN
at the outset. This feature is then expected to race southeast into
srn WI during the morning into the early afternoon hours. Low level
trough axis/cool front will accompany this feature. Bufkit soundings
show steep low level lapse rates with some CAPE. Not a significant
amount of CAPE but enough to keep mention of thunder going. Another
decent vort max arrives Monday night with a reinforcing cool shot.
Will keep a chance of some evening showers with this second source
of forcing. 925 temps proggd to drop to 7-9c by late Monday night.

.TUESDAY - Confidence...Medium
Will be tracking yet another 500 millibar shortwave from north of
Lake Superior. The NAM shows the vort crashing into srn WI during
the afternoon. At the moment the NAM placement is an outlier
solution while the other models show this vort tracking across lower
MI with more of a glancing shot of dcva for our area. The GEM has
a track a bit closer to the NAM though a bit to our east and
slightly sheared/elongated than the NAM. Will have shower chances
at this time and hold off with thunder as GFS Bufkit shows less
CAPE. MOS and LLVL RH progs show good deal of cloud cover in this
cyclonic flow and low level thermal trough regime...so the coolish
MOS temps in mid/upper 60s look reasonable.

.WEDNESDAY - Confidence...High
Models continue to support a dry day with sfc/850 ridge axis nudging
closer. Influence of the cooler nnw flow/mid level cyclonic regime
and low level thermal trough...shifts east. Core of best waa holds
off to our west. However a little warmer as 925 temps modify a bit.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY - Confidence...Low to Medium
588DM ridge proggd to gradually build in during this period with
corridor of best upper level winds going well to our north on
periphery of ridge. Progs show appreciable warming with 925 temps
rising from 17-19c on Thursday up to 25-27c for Saturday. Will
likely see highs head rather deep into the 80s with some lower 90s
not out of the question especially if the warmer ECMWF pans out. The
ECMWF continues to show a drier look during this period while the
GFS shows a stronger 850 jet and moisture push for thursday/thursday
night. Will go with the superblend temps/pops for now.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...Expect isolated showers to end in the far east
by 10Z as mid-level wave pushes east. MVFR fog in the east will lift
as west winds increase by or shortly after sunrise. Still looking
for MVFR/IFR clouds to sweep across srn WI behind this wave then
lift after daybreak to VFR levels. Could see a short period of
scattered cigs before clouds thicken and chances of showers and
isolated thunderstorms return this afternoon and evening. Will
also see wind gusts increase to the 20-25 knot range by late this
morning and through the afternoon...and could go higher. Will see
isolated MVFR conditions with the precipitation this afternoon and
evening...with lowering winds and VFR conditions for the
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...Will extend the dense fog advisory until 12Z as shoreline
web cams show visibility reducing fog. Fog should thin/lift shortly
after sunrise as gradient winds increase. Looking for wind gusts
to reach 20 knots, with some gusts to 25 knots, this afternoon
into this evening. Will not issue a Small Craft Advisory at this
time but will add small boats should exercise caution wording to
the nearshore. Later shifts will have to monitor to see if enough
mixing down to the cooler waters to issue an advisory.

Will see isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms this
afternoon and early evening, then clearing skies overnight. Winds
come back up Monday with a better chance to see a Small Craft
Advisory.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 4 AM CDT early this morning for
     LMZ643>646.

&&

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
Monday THROUGH Saturday...Collar

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
709 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-061215-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
709 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A REEDSBURG...SUN PRAIRIE...HUSTISFORD TO MOUNT
CALVARY LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A WARM FRONT BRINGING MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND
OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LMZ643>646-061215-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
709 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WEST WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

BRISK WEST WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON MONDAY.

A WARM FRONT BRINGING MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL BRING CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

REM
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX