Special Weather Statement, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
812 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...APPROACHING COLD FRONT AIDED BY SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
FROM SHARP MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND LEFT EXIT REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
THE EVENING...DIMINISHING IN THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY BE
A FEW GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH
SMALL HAIL.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM STILL ON TAP TO AFFECT TAF SITES THIS
EVENING...ENDING IN THE SOUTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG
WITH SMALL HAIL. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SURGE DOWN LAKE STILL EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CLOUDS IN THE EAST
LATER TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SURGE EXPECTED BEHIND COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS
TO 35 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. UPGRADED SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY TO GALE WARNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF AN UPPER JET WILL DROP THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THIS EVENING BRINGING A
LINE OF SHOWERS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE IS
MINIMAL WITH THE NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH UP TO 200 J/KG. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME OF THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WHEN THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE. THERE IS AN INVERTED V
SOUNDING AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED
WIND GUSTS BUT WITH MIMINMAL CAPE ITS HARD TO GET EXCITED ABOUT.

WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
A FEW MODELS SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY IN SE WI WITH WEAK
SURFACE CONVERFENCE SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE OMEGA BLOCK THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE USA ON WED WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EWD THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON WED WILL MOVE TO THE SE USA WED NT INTO THU WITH HEIGHT
RISES OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES. THE WARM
ADVECTION WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING SCT-BKN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS INTO SRN WI THU AFT AND LINGER INTO SAT AM. AT THE
SFC...THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN WI ON THU WHILE A N-S WARM
FRONT WILL THEN SET UP FROM UPPER MI THROUGH ERN WI. TEMPS WILL
WARM INTO FRI WITH ESPECIALLY WARM TEMPS ON FRI AS 925 MB TEMPS
WARM ABOVE 20C. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WI AND 70S FAR EAST. A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED EACH
DAY BUT WILL NOT TRAVEL TOO FAR INLAND ESPECIALLY ON FRI.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

THE OMEGA BLOCK WILL BREAK DOWN AS A STRONG CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON SAT. THERE ARE GOOD
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTORM WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE AND PLEASANT SPRING WX TO THEN PREVAIL ON SUN.

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL THEN SLOWLY APPROACH
THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND TSTORMS INCREASING TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO BRING A LINE OF SHOWERS BETWEEN 2 AND 6Z AND
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND IT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT EASTERN TAF SITES. 1-2 KFT
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT EASTERN TAF STIES
AND MAY LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH BROKEN VFR CUMULOUS.

MARINE

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING BRINGING RAIN
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT BRISK NORTH
WINDS AND HIGH WAVES WILL RESULT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADIVSORY IN
EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE HIGHER WINDS AND
WAVES MAY LINGER LONGER SOUTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

UPDATE...MBK
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR/SM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...GEHRING

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
929 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WIZ062-067-040315-
LAFAYETTE-IOWA-
929 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT IOWA AND NORTHWESTERN LAFAYETTE
COUNTIES...

AT 925 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES WEST OF
RICHLAND CENTER NEAR SOLDIERS GROVE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED WITH THIS THUNDERSTORMS.  WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...
AVOCA...HIGHLAND...MINERAL POINT...DODGEVILLE... BELMONT...LESLIE
AND COBB.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4320 9043 4321 9029 4319 9028 4319 9025
      4291 8984 4288 8984 4272 9043
TIME...MOT...LOC 0225Z 316DEG 48KT 4329 9058

MBK