Frost Advisory 5, NWS Milwaukee, WI

623 
WWUS73 KMKX 080802
NPWMKX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
302 AM CDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S AND WINDS AROUND 5 MPH ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...
WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF FROST EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE
REEDSBURG...BARABOO... PORTAGE...BERLIN...AND WESTFIELD AREAS.

WIZ046-047-056-057-081400-
/O.CON.KMKX.FR.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-161008T1400Z/
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-SAUK-COLUMBIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...WESTFIELD...OXFORD...
NESHKORO...ENDEAVOR...BERLIN...PRINCETON...MARKESAN...BARABOO...
REEDSBURG...PRAIRIE DU SAC...SAUK CITY...PORTAGE...COLUMBUS...
LAKE WISCONSIN...LODI
302 AM CDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING. 

* TEMPERATURE...LOWS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
  30S TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE PLANTS AND VEGETATION MAY BE HARMED OR 
  KILLED IN THESE CONDITIONS IF LEFT UNCOVERED. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED.
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
333 PM CDT FRI OCT 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...

Clouds are clearing nicely in the wake of the cold front as dry air
spreads into the region. Gusty northwest winds kept the shallow low
clouds (diurnal cu) from redeveloping across southern WI this
afternoon. Temperatures have rebounded into the upper 50s with the
sunshine. Winds will drop quickly with the loss of daytime heating
and mixing.

Quiet weather with clear skies will prevail tonight and Saturday
thanks to high pressure over the region. 925mb temps will drop down
to around 3-4C over south central WI tonight. Winds just above the
surface will remain elevated, so we can expect a weak inversion and
not perfectly calm conditions. These conditions yield min
temperatures in the mid/upper 30s, warmer near the lakeshore. Given
that we will have some stirring all night, I expect only patchy
frost toward central WI where we are expecting the coolest temps and
lightest winds.

Max temperatures will be around 60 on Saturday due to sunshine and
warmer 925mb temps nudging northward into the area. We can expect
much lighter westerly winds up to 10 mph on Saturday as well.

.Saturday night and Sunday...Forecast Confidence Medium.

The mid/upper level flow remains zonal, but the main jet is
across southern Canada. little in the way of upper level divergence.

A brief period of 700 mb upward motion occurs Saturday evening,
with mainly downward motion Sunday. 700 mb RH is highest across
central Wisconsin including Marquette through Sheboygan counties
Saturday evening then dries as the 700 mb ridge axis moves across.

A large high becomes centered across the Great lakes.

.Sunday night and Monday...Forecast Confidence Medium.

The upper flow becomes a little more west southwest with the GFS
bringing a weak shortwave across the Central Plains. Very weak
upper divergence with increasing mainly weak 700 mb upward
motion. The 700 mb RH increasing Monday. At 850 mb a southwest
flow increases with 40 knots pushing into south central Wisconsin
by late afternoon.  850 mb RH is still low.

High pressure over the Eastern Great lakes moves off to the east
with a south flow across the area Monday.

.LONG TERM...

.Tuesday through Thursday...Forecast Confidence...Medium

The 12Z GFS and 00z ECMWF are in good agreement. A weak shortwave
moves across the mid Mississippi Valley. Then a large trough moves
across Central Canada Wednesday with a west/southwest flow across
southern Wisconsin Thursday as a trough moves into the northern
and central Plains.

A weak trough moves across Wisconsin Tuesday and Wednesday with
high pressure Wednesday night and Thursday.

&&

.Friday...Forecast Confidence...Medium

A mid/upper trough moves across south central Canada.

The surface high moves off with south winds and a warming trend
Friday.

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

Winds will diminish quickly this evening as high pressure settles
into the region. VFR conditions will persist through Saturday night
with dry air overhead. Only mid level clouds will begin to stream
into WI later Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...

Gusty northwest winds behind a cold front will be at small craft
advisory criteria through the afternoon. Expect winds to diminish by
early evening as high pressure approaches the Mid Mississippi
Valley. The small craft advisory end time for all zones at 7 pm CDT
still seems reasonable.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening for LMZ643>646.

&&

TONIGHT/Saturday AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
Saturday NIGHT THROUGH Friday...Hentz

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
838 PM CDT FRI OCT 7 2016

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-090145-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
838 PM CDT FRI OCT 7 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED OVER A PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DIP DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 30S AND
WINDS REMAIN AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS. A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY FOR AREAS NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF MADISON INCLUDING PORTAGE...REEDSBURG...BERLIN AND
WESTFIELD.

PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE LATE TONIGHT...EXCEPT CLOSER
TO LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

LMZ643>646-090145-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
838 PM CDT FRI OCT 7 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

WEST WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY.
SOUTH WINDS AND WAVES MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. NORTH WINDS MAY REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BEHIND A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO WEDNESDAY.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

MBK/JTS