Alert archive / Wisconsin / Flash Flood Watches in 2016

Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Milwaukee, WI

September 21, 20169 counties in Wisconsin

NWS Milwaukee, WI issued this flash flood watch at Sep 21, 2016, 2:53 AM CDT for 9 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 48 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Sep 21, 2016, 2:53 AM CDT (07:53 UTC)
Expired
Sep 23, 2016, 3:12 AM CDT
In force
48 hr
Issued by
NWS Milwaukee, WI
Flood severity
None

Counties Columbia County, WI, Dane County, WI, Dodge County, WI, Fond du Lac County, WI, Green Lake County, WI, Iowa County, WI, Marquette County, WI, Sauk County, WI, Sheboygan County, WI

The radar

The Milwaukee radar (KMKX), 76 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 00:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 137 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 00:00Z on 2016-09-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 00:00Z on 2016-09-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 53 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2092 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
53 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
332 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

422 
WGUS63 KMKX 210753
FFAMKX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
253 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING...

.A MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY...POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS THAT MAY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES.
THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY MOVING OVER THE SAME AREA CREATES A
SERIOUS THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. MANY LOCATIONS COULD SEE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LOCAL AREAS
POSSIBLY PUSHING 3 TO 4 INCHES IF THUNDERSTORMS TRACK ACROSS THE
SAME AREA. SOIL CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY WET FROM RECENT RAINFALL.

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>058-062-063-211600-
/O.NEW.KMKX.FF.A.0003.160921T0753Z-160923T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
IOWA-DANE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...WESTFIELD...OXFORD...
NESHKORO...ENDEAVOR...BERLIN...PRINCETON...MARKESAN...
FOND DU LAC...PLYMOUTH...SHEBOYGAN FALLS...HOWARDS GROVE...
OOSTBURG...BARABOO...REEDSBURG...PRAIRIE DU SAC...SAUK CITY...
PORTAGE...COLUMBUS...LAKE WISCONSIN...LODI...BEAVER DAM...
WAUPUN...MAYVILLE...DODGEVILLE...MINERAL POINT...BARNEVELD...
MADISON
253 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN... 
  SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...INCLUDING 
  THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...FOND DU LAC 
  AND SHEBOYGAN. IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...COLUMBIA...DANE... 
  GREEN LAKE...IOWA...MARQUETTE AND SAUK. IN SOUTHEAST 
  WISCONSIN...DODGE. 

* THROUGH 7 PM THURSDAY.

* MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY
  THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE STRETCHING FROM
  SHEBOYGAN TO JUNEAU TO MADISON TO MINERAL POINT.

* 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALIZED 3 TO 4 INCHES
  POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA.
  FLOODING COULD DEVELOP RAPIDLY...ESPECIALLY AREAS ALREADY PRONE
  TO RAPIDLY RISING WATERS. PARTS OF THE MADISON METRO AREA ARE
  VERY SENSITIVE TO RAPID RAINFALL...RESULTING IN URBAN FLOODING.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$
10 follow-up statements
490 
WGUS63 KMKX 211507
FFAMKX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1007 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING...

.A MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAT MAY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AT
TIMES. THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY MOVING OVER THE SAME AREA CREATES
A SERIOUS THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. MANY LOCATIONS COULD SEE
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LOCAL
AREAS POSSIBLY PUSHING 3 TO 4 INCHES IF THUNDERSTORMS TRACK
ACROSS THE SAME AREA. SOIL CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY WET FROM RECENT
RAINFALL.

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>058-062-063-212315-
/O.CON.KMKX.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-160923T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
IOWA-DANE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...WESTFIELD...OXFORD...
NESHKORO...ENDEAVOR...BERLIN...PRINCETON...MARKESAN...
FOND DU LAC...PLYMOUTH...SHEBOYGAN FALLS...HOWARDS GROVE...
OOSTBURG...BARABOO...REEDSBURG...PRAIRIE DU SAC...SAUK CITY...
PORTAGE...COLUMBUS...LAKE WISCONSIN...LODI...BEAVER DAM...
WAUPUN...MAYVILLE...DODGEVILLE...MINERAL POINT...BARNEVELD...
MADISON
1007 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN 
  AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN 
  EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN. IN SOUTH 
  CENTRAL WISCONSIN...COLUMBIA...DANE...GREEN LAKE...IOWA... 
  MARQUETTE AND SAUK. IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...DODGE. 

* THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING

* MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY 
  THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE STRETCHING FROM 
  SHEBOYGAN TO JUNEAU TO MADISON TO MINERAL POINT. 

* 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALIZED 3 TO 4 
  INCHES POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME 
  AREA. FLOODING COULD DEVELOP RAPIDLY...ESPECIALLY AREAS 
  ALREADY PRONE TO RAPIDLY RISING WATERS. PARTS OF THE MADISON 
  METRO AREA ARE VERY SENSITIVE TO RAPID RAINFALL...RESULTING IN 
  URBAN FLOODING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$
987 
WGUS63 KMKX 211621
FFAMKX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1121 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING...

.A MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAT MAY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AT
TIMES. THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY MOVING OVER THE SAME AREA CREATES
A SERIOUS THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LOCAL AREAS PUSHING 3 TO 5
INCHES IF THUNDERSTORMS TRACK ACROSS THE SAME AREA. SOIL CONDITIONS
ARE ALREADY WET FROM RECENT RAINFALL.

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>058-062-063-220030-
/O.CON.KMKX.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-160923T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
IOWA-DANE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...WESTFIELD...OXFORD...
NESHKORO...ENDEAVOR...BERLIN...PRINCETON...MARKESAN...
FOND DU LAC...PLYMOUTH...SHEBOYGAN FALLS...HOWARDS GROVE...
OOSTBURG...BARABOO...REEDSBURG...PRAIRIE DU SAC...SAUK CITY...
PORTAGE...COLUMBUS...LAKE WISCONSIN...LODI...BEAVER DAM...
WAUPUN...MAYVILLE...DODGEVILLE...MINERAL POINT...BARNEVELD...
MADISON
1121 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN 
  AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN 
  EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN. IN SOUTH 
  CENTRAL WISCONSIN...COLUMBIA...DANE...GREEN LAKE...IOWA... 
  MARQUETTE AND SAUK. IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...DODGE. 

* THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING

* MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY 
  THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE STRETCHING FROM 
  SHEBOYGAN TO JUNEAU TO MADISON TO MINERAL POINT. 

* 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN FELL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA
  THROUGH THIS MORNING. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ARE
  EXPECTED WITH LOCALIZED 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS
  REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA. FLOODING COULD DEVELOP
  RAPIDLY...ESPECIALLY AREAS ALREADY PRONE TO RAPIDLY RISING
  WATERS. PARTS OF THE MADISON METRO AREA ARE VERY SENSITIVE TO
  RAPID RAINFALL...RESULTING IN URBAN FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

HENTZ
913 
WGUS63 KMKX 212015
FFAMKX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
315 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING...

.A MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY MOVING OVER
THE SAME AREA CREATES A SERIOUS THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. MANY
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LOCAL
AREAS OF AROUND 5 INCHES IF THUNDERSTORMS TRACK ACROSS THE SAME
AREA. SOIL CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY WET FROM RECENT RAINFALL.

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>058-062-063-220415-
/O.CON.KMKX.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-160923T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
IOWA-DANE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...WESTFIELD...OXFORD...
NESHKORO...ENDEAVOR...BERLIN...PRINCETON...MARKESAN...
FOND DU LAC...PLYMOUTH...SHEBOYGAN FALLS...HOWARDS GROVE...
OOSTBURG...BARABOO...REEDSBURG...PRAIRIE DU SAC...SAUK CITY...
PORTAGE...COLUMBUS...LAKE WISCONSIN...LODI...BEAVER DAM...
WAUPUN...MAYVILLE...DODGEVILLE...MINERAL POINT...BARNEVELD...
MADISON
315 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN 
  AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN 
  EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN. IN SOUTH 
  CENTRAL WISCONSIN...COLUMBIA...DANE...GREEN LAKE...IOWA... 
  MARQUETTE AND SAUK. IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...DODGE. 

* THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING

* MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
  THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE STRETCHING FROM
  SHEBOYGAN TO JUNEAU TO MADISON TO MINERAL POINT.

* 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN FELL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA
  THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS
  OF SAUK COUNTY. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED
  WITH LOCALIZED 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS
  REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA. FLOODING COULD DEVELOP
  RAPIDLY...ESPECIALLY AREAS ALREADY PRONE TO RAPIDLY RISING
  WATERS. PARTS OF THE MADISON METRO AREA ARE VERY SENSITIVE TO
  RAPID RAINFALL...RESULTING IN URBAN FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

HENTZ
308 
WGUS63 KMKX 220205
FFAMKX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
905 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING...

.A MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. 

THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY MOVING OVER THE SAME AREA CREATES A
SERIOUS THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LOCAL AREAS OF AROUND 5 INCHES
IF THUNDERSTORMS TRACK ACROSS THE SAME AREA. SOIL CONDITIONS ARE
ALREADY WET FROM RECENT RAINFALL...INCREASING THE FLOODING
POTENTIAL.

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>058-062-063-221015-
/O.CON.KMKX.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-160923T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
IOWA-DANE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...WESTFIELD...OXFORD...
NESHKORO...ENDEAVOR...BERLIN...PRINCETON...MARKESAN...
FOND DU LAC...PLYMOUTH...SHEBOYGAN FALLS...HOWARDS GROVE...
OOSTBURG...BARABOO...REEDSBURG...PRAIRIE DU SAC...SAUK CITY...
PORTAGE...COLUMBUS...LAKE WISCONSIN...LODI...BEAVER DAM...
WAUPUN...MAYVILLE...DODGEVILLE...MINERAL POINT...BARNEVELD...
MADISON
905 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN 
  AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN 
  EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN. IN SOUTH 
  CENTRAL WISCONSIN...COLUMBIA...DANE...GREEN LAKE...IOWA... 
  MARQUETTE AND SAUK. IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...DODGE. 

* THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING

* MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT 
  THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE STRETCHING FROM 
  SHEBOYGAN TO JUNEAU TO MADISON TO MINERAL POINT. 

* 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN FELL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA
  THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS
  OF SAUK COUNTY. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN FELL DURING
  THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SAUK AND COLUMBIA
  COUNTIES AS WELL AS PARTS OF MADISON. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3
  INCHES IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN PARTS OF THE WATCH
  AREA. THUNDERSTORMS COULD REPEATEDLY AFFECT THE SAME AREA
  RESULTING IN TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. FLOODING COULD DEVELOP
  RAPIDLY...ESPECIALLY AREAS ALREADY PRONE TO RAPIDLY RISING
  WATERS. PARTS OF THE MADISON METRO AREA ARE VERY SENSITIVE TO
  RAPID RAINFALL...RESULTING IN URBAN FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$
MBK
174 
WGUS63 KMKX 220824
FFAMKX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
324 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING...

.SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST OF MADISON SHOULD
DIMINISH THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AREA.

SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS FOR THE
REPEATED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE
SAME AREA...FOCUSING COPIOUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE SAME AREA.
SOME LOCAL AREAS COULD SEE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN

SOIL CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINFALL...
INCREASING THE FLOODING POTENTIAL.

WIZ052-058-220930-
/O.CAN.KMKX.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-160923T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SHEBOYGAN-DODGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PLYMOUTH...SHEBOYGAN FALLS...
HOWARDS GROVE...OOSTBURG...BEAVER DAM...WAUPUN...MAYVILLE
324 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THIS ARE HAS NOT RECEIVED
MUCH RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...THEREFORE THE THREAT FOR
FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY. 

$$

WIZ046-047-051-056-057-062-063-221630-
/O.CON.KMKX.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-160923T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SAUK-COLUMBIA-IOWA-DANE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...WESTFIELD...OXFORD...
NESHKORO...ENDEAVOR...BERLIN...PRINCETON...MARKESAN...
FOND DU LAC...BARABOO...REEDSBURG...PRAIRIE DU SAC...SAUK CITY...
PORTAGE...COLUMBUS...LAKE WISCONSIN...LODI...DODGEVILLE...
MINERAL POINT...BARNEVELD...MADISON
324 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTH CENTRAL 
  WISCONSIN...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN EAST CENTRAL 
  WISCONSIN...FOND DU LAC. IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN... 
  COLUMBIA...DANE...GREEN LAKE...IOWA...MARQUETTE AND SAUK. 

* THROUGH THIS EVENING

* MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
  TONIGHT. 

* TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN FELL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATCH
  AREA YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN
  PORTIONS OF SAUK COUNTY. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE
  TODAY AND TONIGHT IN PARTS OF THE WATCH AREA. THUNDERSTORMS
  COULD REPEATEDLY AFFECT THE SAME AREA RESULTING IN TORRENTIAL
  RAINFALL. FLOODING COULD DEVELOP RAPIDLY...ESPECIALLY AREAS
  ALREADY PRONE TO RAPIDLY RISING WATERS. PARTS OF THE MADISON
  METRO AREA ARE VERY SENSITIVE TO RAPID RAINFALL...RESULTING IN
  URBAN FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$
873 
WGUS63 KMKX 220846 CCA
FFAMKX

FLOOD WATCH...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
346 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING...

.SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF MADISON
SHOULD DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON. MORE SHOWERS WITH CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK A
BIT LIMITED DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
THEREFORE THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING SHOULD END BY EARLY EVENING.

SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS FOR THE
REPEATED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE
SAME AREA...FOCUSING COPIOUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A SMALL AREA.
THOSE AREAS COULD SEE ANOTHER 1 INCH OF RAIN

SOIL CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINFALL...
INCREASING THE FLOODING POTENTIAL.

WIZ052-058-221000-
/O.CAN.KMKX.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-160923T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SHEBOYGAN-DODGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PLYMOUTH...SHEBOYGAN FALLS...
HOWARDS GROVE...OOSTBURG...BEAVER DAM...WAUPUN...MAYVILLE
346 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THIS ARE HAS NOT RECEIVED
MUCH RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...THEREFORE THE THREAT FOR
FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY. 

$$

WIZ046-047-051-056-057-062-063-222100-
/O.COR.KMKX.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-160923T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SAUK-COLUMBIA-IOWA-DANE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...WESTFIELD...OXFORD...
NESHKORO...ENDEAVOR...BERLIN...PRINCETON...MARKESAN...
FOND DU LAC...BARABOO...REEDSBURG...PRAIRIE DU SAC...SAUK CITY...
PORTAGE...COLUMBUS...LAKE WISCONSIN...LODI...DODGEVILLE...
MINERAL POINT...BARNEVELD...MADISON
346 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTH CENTRAL 
  WISCONSIN...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN EAST CENTRAL 
  WISCONSIN...FOND DU LAC. IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN... 
  COLUMBIA...DANE...GREEN LAKE...IOWA...MARQUETTE AND SAUK. 

* THROUGH THIS EVENING

* MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
  TONIGHT. BUT THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR FLOOD PRODUCING RAINFALL IS
  THROUGH THIS MORNING.

* TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN FELL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATCH
  AREA YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN
  PORTIONS OF SAUK COUNTY. AN ADDITIONAL INCH IS POSSIBLE TODAY IN
  PARTS OF THE WATCH AREA. THUNDERSTORMS COULD REPEATEDLY AFFECT
  THE SAME AREA RESULTING IN TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. FLOODING COULD
  DEVELOP RAPIDLY...ESPECIALLY AREAS ALREADY PRONE TO RAPIDLY
  RISING WATERS. PARTS OF THE MADISON METRO AREA ARE VERY
  SENSITIVE TO RAPID RAINFALL...RESULTING IN URBAN FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$
620 
WGUS63 KMKX 221053
FFAMKX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
553 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING...

.THERE IS A LINGERING RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN NORTH AND WEST OF MADISON TODAY. SHOWERS WITH CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK
MUCH MORE LIMITED DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT. THEREFORE THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING SHOULD END BY EARLY
EVENING.

SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS FOR THE
REPEATED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE
SAME AREA...FOCUSING COPIOUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A SMALL AREA.
THOSE AREAS COULD SEE ANOTHER 1 INCH OF RAIN

SOIL CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINFALL...
INCREASING THE FLOODING POTENTIAL.

WIZ051-063-221200-
/O.CAN.KMKX.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-160923T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FOND DU LAC-DANE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FOND DU LAC...MADISON
553 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN HAS BEEN CANCELLED. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
LOOKING LIMITED ACROSS DANE AND FOND DU LAC COUNTIES. THEREFORE
THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING HAS ENDED.  

$$

WIZ046-047-056-057-062-221900-
/O.CON.KMKX.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-160923T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-SAUK-COLUMBIA-IOWA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...WESTFIELD...OXFORD...
NESHKORO...ENDEAVOR...BERLIN...PRINCETON...MARKESAN...BARABOO...
REEDSBURG...PRAIRIE DU SAC...SAUK CITY...PORTAGE...COLUMBUS...
LAKE WISCONSIN...LODI...DODGEVILLE...MINERAL POINT...BARNEVELD
553 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...COLUMBIA...GREEN LAKE...IOWA...MARQUETTE AND SAUK. 

* THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING

* MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 
  TONIGHT. BUT THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR FLOOD PRODUCING RAINFALL 
  IS THROUGH THIS MORNING. 

* TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN FELL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATCH 
  AREA YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN 
  PORTIONS OF SAUK COUNTY. AN ADDITIONAL INCH IS POSSIBLE TODAY 
  IN PARTS OF THE WATCH AREA. THUNDERSTORMS COULD REPEATEDLY 
  AFFECT THE SAME AREA RESULTING IN TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. 
  FLOODING COULD DEVELOP RAPIDLY...ESPECIALLY AREAS ALREADY 
  PRONE TO RAPIDLY RISING WATERS. PARTS OF THE MADISON METRO 
  AREA ARE VERY SENSITIVE TO RAPID RAINFALL...RESULTING IN URBAN 
  FLOODING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$
085 
WGUS63 KMKX 221933
FFAMKX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
233 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WOULD LEAD TO FURTHER FLOODING PROBLEMS...

.THERE IS A LINGERING RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK MORE LIMITED TONIGHT DUE TO
THE LACK OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. 

SOIL CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINFALL...
SO IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH MORE RAIN TO AGGRAVATE THE SITUATION.

WIZ046-047-056-057-062-230345-
/O.EXT.KMKX.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-160923T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-SAUK-COLUMBIA-IOWA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...WESTFIELD...OXFORD...
NESHKORO...ENDEAVOR...BERLIN...PRINCETON...MARKESAN...BARABOO...
REEDSBURG...PRAIRIE DU SAC...SAUK CITY...PORTAGE...COLUMBUS...
LAKE WISCONSIN...LODI...DODGEVILLE...MINERAL POINT...BARNEVELD
233 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...COLUMBIA...GREEN LAKE...IOWA...MARQUETTE AND SAUK. 

* THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON

* MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE
  THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL SET UP. IT MAY END UP STAYING
  SOUTH OF THE WATCH AREA. HOWEVER ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL
  LIKELY LEAD TO FURTHER PROBLEMS IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN
  EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$
382 
WGUS63 KMKX 230131
FFAMKX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
831 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

...STILL A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS...

.THERE REMAINS A LINGERING RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. EXPECTED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

HOWEVER...SOIL CONDITIONS ARE SATURATED FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SO IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH MORE RAIN TO
AGGRAVATE THE SITUATION AND CAUSE MORE FLOODING.  

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SAUK AND IOWA
COUNTIES BUT WILL BE CANCELLED FOR COLUMBIA AND COUNTIES FARTHER
NORTH AS THE HEAVIER RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH. 

WIZ046-047-057-230245-
/O.CAN.KMKX.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-160923T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-COLUMBIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...WESTFIELD...OXFORD...
NESHKORO...ENDEAVOR...BERLIN...PRINCETON...MARKESAN...PORTAGE...
COLUMBUS...LAKE WISCONSIN...LODI
831 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE THREAT FOR FLOODING RAINS HAS DIMINISHED
AND WILL REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH. 

$$

WIZ056-062-230945-
/O.CON.KMKX.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-160923T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAUK-IOWA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARABOO...REEDSBURG...PRAIRIE DU SAC...
SAUK CITY...DODGEVILLE...MINERAL POINT...BARNEVELD
831 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* SAUK AND IOWA COUNTIES. 

* THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON

* MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THERE
  IS STILL A CHANCE A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
  RAINFALL RESULTING IN FLOODING.

* URBAN AND RURAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$
MBK
702 
WGUS63 KMKX 230812
FFAMKX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
312 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

WIZ056-062-230915-
/O.CAN.KMKX.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-160923T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAUK-IOWA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARABOO...REEDSBURG...PRAIRIE DU SAC...
SAUK CITY...DODGEVILLE...MINERAL POINT...BARNEVELD
312 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS BEEN CONFINED TO
AREAS SOUTHWEST OF THE WATCH. WHILE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT, THE RISK FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL HAS ENDED. AS A RESULT, THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Milwaukee, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at Sep 20, 8:45 PM CDT, 6 hours 8 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 20, 8:45 PM CDT, 6 hours 8 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
845 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

.UPDATE...A few storms firing to the north along tightening
baroclinic zone and increasing low level frontogenesis. A few of
these may brush far north later this evening. Still expect main
show to occur from 07z-12z tonight as increasing low level jet
pivots eastward into the tri-state area and weakens slightly.
Expect convection to begin firing in the next 1-3 hours upstream
over southern MN where low level moisture convergence increasing.
Pivoting low level jet and strong surge of low level theta-e
advection and moisture should carry the convection into central
and srn wi later tonight. Will continue high chance to categorical
pops across CWA from east to west. Expect initial surge of late
night convection to progress southeast but redevelopment farther
west and slowing of Corfidi Vectors may result in some heavy
rainfall in the west late. Wl need to see what happens with the
first round of convection before considering posting Flash Flood
Watch.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...Still expect scattered to numerous
thunderstorms to affect southern WI and taf sites later tonight
into Wednesday morning. Cigs expected to briefly drop to around 1k
feet in some spots later tonight.

&&

.MARINE...Mariners will need to keep an eye on scattered
thunderstorms expected to affect the near shore waters later
tonight into Wednesday morning. Gusty winds and small hail may
accompany a stronger storm. Otherwise, mostly southeast winds are
expected the next several days, with variable winds around
tstorms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 332 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT - Confidence...Medium

Influence of surface high to persist into the evening hours. Then
attention will focus to MCS potential later in the night, especially
after 06z. The meso scale models are coming into a little better
agreement on MCS reaching our northwest CWA 06-09z and then into the
southeast CWA roughly 09-12z. The LLJ will be leaning into the area
and there is an appreciable amount of moisture advection progged.
So the idea that this MCS may sustain itself throughout southern
WI, has plausibility. The greatest severe potential appears to be
in our northwest late where HRRR has proggd elevated CAPE values
over 2k j/kg. So the eastward nudging of the Slight Risk outline
into our northwest CWA makes sense.

WEDNESDAY - Confidence...Medium

Initial MCS or remnants of expected to exit the southeast corner of
the CWA early in the morning. Meso progs already lighting up the
area back to the west vcnty Miss Rvr Vly associated with sustained
LLJ impinging on that area. 850 baroclinic ribbon progged to be
situated close enough to CWA to keep some chances going all day.
Seeing indications of upper divergence aiding the vertical motion
field. Primary west/east jet stream is pretty far north though so
not a classic signature. With 925 temps into the lower 20s celsius
any breaks will allow temps to reach the 80s, but cloud cover/precip
trends will certainly have a say on temp trends.

Wednesday night through Friday...Forecast confidence medium.

Scattered tstorms will likely be ongoing over central WI Wed
afternoon and evening due to persistent thetae advection. MLCAPEs
may build to 2000 J/KG by late Wed afternoon in the warm sector
over srn WI. A vorticity maximum will be moving across central WI
at the time with a more organized shortwave trough approaching
from the west for late night. Overall expect convection to grow
upscale to a MCS...possibly severe...and shift sewd into the nrn
CWA. Very high PWs of 1.5-1.75 inches and a relatively slow
moving MCS, will make heavy rainfall the biggest concern. Issued
a Hydrologic Outlook to address this mainly north of Madison and
Milwaukee.

For Thu and Thu night, the llj will maintain persistent moisture
transport into central WI while a couple vorticity maximums move
through the area. Thus showers and tstorms will remain likely
across the nrn CWA with lesser chances toward the IL border. By
Fri the precipitation coverage will be shrinking as the llj
weakens and the front moves into nrn IL as a cold front.
Relatively warm and humid conditions will continue with some
cooling on Fri or Fri night.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday...Forecast confidence
medium.

The sharp upper trough over the wrn USA will lift newd over the
weekend and will eventually lift newd into Manitoba and Ontario
Canada along with its surface low. Thus high amplitude ridging
will move over the wrn Great Lakes for Sat-Sun with a weak cold
frontal passage forecast anytime from Sun night into Mon night.
Only small chances of showers and tstorms are forecast for the
weekend with better chances with the fropa.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...Expecting VFR conditions well
into this evening as lingering surface ridging dominates. Concern
later tonight into Wednesday morning will be MCS potential riding in
here from MN/IA. LLJ leans in here later with a decent slug of 850
moist advection proggd. At the moment the 20.12 HRRR is the most
aggressive solution spreading remnants of MCS all the way through
CWA by 12z Wednesday. Other models have trended towards the HRRR
idea. All in all will trend conditions to be VFR for most of the
period however an MVFR/borderline IFR cig scenario may unfold in the
wake of any departed MCS. Will keep fog at bay with increasing cloud
cover and higher wind speeds evolving off the deck.

MARINE...Winds and waves will remain below small craft advisory
levels through the week.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

UPDATE...MBK
TONIGHT/Wednesday AND AVIATION/MARINE...Collar
Wednesday NIGHT THROUGH Tuesday...Gehring
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 20, 3:47 PM CDT, 11 hours 6 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
347 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-212100-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
347 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WELL NORTHWEST OF MADISON
WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE OVER
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AT TIMES...MAINLY NORTH OF MADISON
AND MILWAUKEE...FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO A
FRONT STALLING OVER THE AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE MAINLY
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF MADISON. THERE IS ALSO A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SMALLER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

LMZ643>646-212100-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
347 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE ARE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AFFECTING THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAY BE STRONG AT TIMES.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX
MG

The office that day

Everything else NWS Milwaukee, WI issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 20, 9:16 PM CDTRiver Flood WatchMKXSauk5 days
Sep 20, 9:16 PM CDTRiver Flood WatchMKXColumbia, Sauk6 days
Sep 21, 3:10 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMKXSauk50 min
Sep 21, 3:18 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMKXGreen Lake, Marquette57 min
Sep 21, 3:56 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMKXColumbia, Dodge64 min
Sep 21, 4:47 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMKXDane, Jefferson, Rock43 min
Sep 21, 4:48 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMKXDane, Jefferson, Rock42 min
Sep 21, 4:50 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMKXFond du Lac, Sheboygan40 min
Sep 21, 4:53 AM CDTSpecial Marine WarningMKX97 min
Sep 21, 5:05 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMKXMilwaukee, Ozaukee, Washington, Waukesha40 min
Sep 21, 5:20 AM CDTSpecial Marine WarningMKX85 min
Sep 21, 5:36 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMKXKenosha, Racine, Walworth54 min
Sep 21, 8:29 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMKXLafayette46 min
Sep 21, 10:02 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMKXIowa28 min
Sep 21, 11:29 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryMKXIowa2 hr
Sep 21, 12:06 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryMKXSauk114 min
Sep 21, 12:32 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMKXSauk43 min
Sep 21, 2:55 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMKXColumbia35 min
Sep 21, 4:00 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMKXDane30 min
Sep 21, 4:26 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryMKXDane2 hr
Sep 21, 5:08 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMKXJefferson52 min
Sep 21, 5:45 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryMKXColumbia, Sauk2 hr
Sep 21, 6:40 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMKXColumbia50 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Watches in Wisconsin, 2016Every flash flood watch in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.