Special Weather Statement, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
123 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will weaken over the area today as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. The front will move into the area
tonight and Wednesday then dissipate. High pressure will build in
late week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 115 PM Tue...Upper trof axis over the Eastern NC with
shortwave energy skirting across the area interacting with
lingering boundaries...producing showers and thunderstorms along
the southern county zones. Our area remains under a marginal risk
for severe wx, meanwhile our westernmost counties have been
upgraded to a slight risk by SPC. Expect scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and
evening...aided by an approaching frontal boundary, NW flow aloft,
the seabreeze and shortwave energy. Forecast soundings show MU
CAPE values 3-4000 J/KG, LIs -9 to -11C, 0-6km 20-30 knots and
steep low level lapse rates. PWAT values climb to around 2", so
slower moving cells could produce localized flooding. The primary
threats will be damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning and
locally heavy rainfall. Could see some showers/storms this
morning, mainly across the northern tier of the forecast area,
aided by shortwave energy. Though it still looks like the best
chance of stronger to severe storms will be late afternoon into
the evening hours. The NSSL WRF shows a line of stronger
convection moving in from the north late this afternoon and
pushing south through the forecast area into this evening. Added
gusty wind wording to the grids. Low level thickness values
support highs in the upper 80s to low 90s today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 310 AM Tue...Severe threat could continue into the evening
hours. As mentioned above, the NSSL WRF shows line of convection
pushing southward through the cwa into this evening. Expect precip
to taper off, though the frontal boundary moving into the area
could provide enough of a focus to continue convection. Overnight
lows in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 310 AM Tuesday, a cold front will slowly slip into the
region Wednesday before gradually dissipating. A large ridge of
high pressure will build east through late week into the weekend
with drier conditions and hot temperatures.

Wednesday/Wednesday night...With a weak frontal boundary diving
slowly across the CWA and embedded weak mid-level energy in place,
scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across the region
during the day Wednesday before ending Wednesday night. Moderate
instability with LI values around -6 and CAPES around 2000 J/kg
will lead to a few potential strong storms late in the day
Wednesday, but any major severe weather appears unlikely. The
precipitation should move offshore late Wednesday evening.

Thursday through Saturday night...Strong ridge of high pressure
will build east for late week into the weekend with heat and
humidity returning and the potential for Heat Advisory conditions
for Saturday into Sunday. Large scale subsidence should keep
afternoon convection at a minimum and will forecast dry conditions
for Thursday through Saturday night. High temperatures will rise
from the upper 80s/lower 90s Thursday to the mid 90s by Saturday
as dewpoints push back into the middle 70s.

Sunday through Monday...The upper ridge will start to break down
a bit by Sunday and especially Monday. Slight chances of afternoon
thunderstorms return for Sunday with a better chance for Monday
afternoon and evening. Highs Sunday in the mid/upper 90s drop back
to the low/mid 90s for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short term /Through Wednesday Afternoon/...
As of 130 PM Tue...VFR conditions expected in the short term, however
thunderstorms will be fairly widespread this afternoon and evening
causing some brief MVFR and IFR conditions. Winds will be light
out of the SW, aside from any convective wind gusts. Some patchy
fog will be possible inland a few hours before sunrise, but will
burn off quickly in the morning. Dry conditions expected Wednesday
under light and variable winds.

Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday, scattered thunderstorms on Wednesday
afternoon and evening may lead to a few brief bouts of sub-VFR
conditions. High pressure will build east Thursday through
Saturday with dry and hot conditions and mostly VFR conditions
prevailing.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 115 PM Tue...Current forecast in good shape. Latest buoy
obs show SW winds around 10 knots and seas 2-3 feet. Main
forecast challenge today is the potential for a wind shift across
the northern waters. Some of the latest guidance suggests that
winds will become more variable/northerly across the Albemarle
Sound and the waters north of Oregon Inlet this morning...likely
due to the ongoing convection. Will continue SW flow for now, but
there is the potential for winds to become more northerly later
this morning. SW winds will continue today, though likely diminish
to 10-15 knots later this morning with seas remaining 2-3 feet.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon and evening, and some storms could become strong to
severe with gusty winds. A cold front will approach from the north
late today and move into the coastal waters tonight...with SW flow
becoming N/W by Wednesday morning.

Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 335 AM Tuesday, relatively quiet marine weather will persist
through the extended period. Winds will become NW then gradually
NE Wednesday into Thursday as a weak frontal boundary drifts east
across the waters. As a strong ridge of high pressure builds in
from the west, and the Bermuda surface ridge becomes dominant, SW
winds of 5-15 knots can be expected from Friday into the weekend.
Per wave models, seas will generally be 2-4 feet with a few
5-footers possible over the outer waters at times through the
extended period.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD/BM
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CTC/SK
AVIATION...CTC/SGK
MARINE...CTC/CQD/BM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
316 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-200815-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
316 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND. HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND 105 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
154 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1227 PM     HAIL             2 NNW PELETIER          34.76N  77.10W
07/19/2016  E0.75 INCH       CARTERET           NC   SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED ON HADNOT FARM RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER MHX1600290

KEARNS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
155 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 PM     HAIL             STELLA                  34.77N  77.14W
07/19/2016  E0.75 INCH       CARTERET           NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            DIME SIZE REPORTED OFF OF HIGHWAY 58 NEAR STELLA

&&

EVENT NUMBER MHX1600291

KEARNS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
155 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

NCZ093-094-191845-
PAMLICO-CRAVEN-
155 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN PAMLICO AND CENTRAL
CRAVEN COUNTIES...

AT 155 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FAIRFIELD
HARBOUR...OR 9 MILES EAST OF JAMES CITY...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEW BERN...FAIRFIELD HARBOUR...BAYBORO...ALLIANCE...ARAPAHOE AND
STONEWALL.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3504 7700 3512 7701 3518 7687 3520 7668
      3501 7666 3500 7684
TIME...MOT...LOC 1755Z 277DEG 6KT 3510 7685

26

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

NCZ095-191845-
CARTERET-
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL CARTERET COUNTY...

AT 204 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER MOREHEAD
CITY... MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOREHEAD CITY...PINE KNOLL SHORES...MICHAEL J SMITH AIRPORT...
FORT MACON STATE PARK...OCEANA PIER...BEAUFORT...
RACHEL CARSON ESTUARINE RESERVE AND INDIAN BEACH.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3458 7665 3462 7670 3462 7678 3466 7691
      3482 7684 3482 7652 3455 7657
TIME...MOT...LOC 1804Z 278DEG 7KT 3472 7678

26

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
245 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

NCZ080-093-094-191915-
BEAUFORT-PAMLICO-CRAVEN-
245 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL BEAUFORT...WEST
CENTRAL PAMLICO AND NORTH CENTRAL CRAVEN COUNTIES...

AT 244 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF
FAIRFIELD HARBOUR...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF JAMES CITY...MOVING EAST
AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BAYBORO...ALLIANCE AND STONEWALL.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3518 7707 3531 7694 3525 7663 3505 7676
TIME...MOT...LOC 1844Z 251DEG 7KT 3518 7692

DAG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
250 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

NCZ080-081-094-191930-
BEAUFORT-MAINLAND HYDE-PAMLICO-
250 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN BEAUFORT...
NORTHEASTERN PAMLICO AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND HYDE COUNTIES...

AT 249 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER AURORA FERRY
TERMINAL...OR 18 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RIVER ROAD. THE STORM IS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AURORA FERRY TERMINAL...BAYVIEW FERRY TERMINAL AND AURORA.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3542 7653 3525 7663 3532 7686 3547 7678
TIME...MOT...LOC 1849Z 298DEG 2KT 3537 7671

DAG