Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

468 
WWUS52 KMHX 191614
SVSMHX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1214 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

NCC031-103-133-191630-
/O.CON.KMHX.SV.W.0044.000000T0000Z-160719T1630Z/
ONSLOW NC-CARTERET NC-JONES NC-
1214 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM EDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL ONSLOW...WESTERN CARTERET AND SOUTHEASTERN JONES
COUNTIES...

AT 1214 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PINEY
GREEN... MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JACKSONVILLE...PINEY GREEN...
SWANSBORO AND HAMMOCKS BEACH STATE PARK. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING
TREES OR LARGE LIMBS DOWNED...BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN NEWPORT AT 1-800-889-6889.

CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING
KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3463 7731 3480 7735 3486 7716 3463 7711
TIME...MOT...LOC 1614Z 257DEG 17KT 3472 7724 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

SGK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1044 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will weaken over the area today as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. The front will move into the area
tonight and Wednesday then dissipate. High pressure will build in
late week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1030 AM Tue...Showers and thunderstorms have been ongoing
since early this morning...counties along and adjacent to the
Pamlico and Albemarle sound. Latest radar shows convection over
the Pamlico and OBX Dare and Hyde. This activity should gradually
push off the coast around noon. Our westernmost counties have been
upgraded to a slight risk of severe weather by SPC while the
remaining counties are still outlooked in a marginal risk. 12z
KMHX UA sounding shows a very unstable airmass over the area with
SB CAPE 3327 J/kg, LI -7. Expect scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and evening...aided by an
approaching frontal boundary, NW flow aloft, the seabreeze and
shortwave energy. Forecast soundings show MU CAPE values 3-4000
J/KG, LIs -9 to -11C, 0-6km 20-30 knots and steep low level lapse
rates. PWAT values climb to around 2", so slower moving cells
could produce localized flooding. The primary threats will be
damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning and locally heavy
rainfall. Could see some showers/storms this morning, mainly
across the northern tier of the forecast area, aided by shortwave
energy. Though it still looks like the best chance of stronger to
severe storms will be late afternoon into the evening hours. The
NSSL WRF shows a line of stronger convection moving in from the
north late this afternoon and pushing south through the forecast
area into this evening. Added gusty wind wording to the grids. Low
level thickness values support highs in the upper 80s to low 90s
today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 310 AM Tue...Severe threat could continue into the evening
hours. As mentioned above, the NSSL WRF shows line of convection
pushing southward through the cwa into this evening. Expect precip
to taper off, though the frontal boundary moving into the area
could provide enough of a focus to continue convection. Overnight
lows in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 310 AM Tuesday, a cold front will slowly slip into the
region Wednesday before gradually dissipating. A large ridge of
high pressure will build east through late week into the weekend
with drier conditions and hot temperatures.

Wednesday/Wednesday night...With a weak frontal boundary diving
slowly across the CWA and embedded weak mid-level energy in place,
scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across the region
during the day Wednesday before ending Wednesday night. Moderate
instability with LI values around -6 and CAPES around 2000 J/kg
will lead to a few potential strong storms late in the day
Wednesday, but any major severe weather appears unlikely. The
precipitation should move offshore late Wednesday evening.

Thursday through Saturday night...Strong ridge of high pressure
will build east for late week into the weekend with heat and
humidity returning and the potential for Heat Advisory conditions
for Saturday into Sunday. Large scale subsidence should keep
afternoon convection at a minimum and will forecast dry conditions
for Thursday through Saturday night. High temperatures will rise
from the upper 80s/lower 90s Thursday to the mid 90s by Saturday
as dewpoints push back into the middle 70s.

Sunday through Monday...The upper ridge will start to break down
a bit by Sunday and especially Monday. Slight chances of afternoon
thunderstorms return for Sunday with a better chance for Monday
afternoon and evening. Highs Sunday in the mid/upper 90s drop back
to the low/mid 90s for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short term /through Tonight/...
As of 645 AM Tue...Pred VFR conditions expected through the TAF
period outside of convection. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
expected to develop this afternoon and evening. Isolated strong
to severe storms will be possible with gusty winds. Sub-VFR
conditions likely in convection. A cold front will move into the
region tonight, with SW winds becoming northerly.

Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday, scattered thunderstorms on Wednesday
afternoon and evening may lead to a few brief bouts of sub-VFR
conditions. High pressure will build east Thursday through
Saturday with dry and hot conditions and mostly VFR conditions
prevailing.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 1030 AM Tue...Current forecast in good shape. Made minor
tweaks to reflect current trends by increasing POPS over the
coastal waters and Pamlico sound. Latest buoy obs show SW winds
10-16 knots with some gusts up to 20 knots and seas 2-3 feet. Main
forecast challenge today is the potential for a wind shift across
the northern waters. Some of the latest guidance suggests that
winds will become more variable/northerly across the Albemarle
Sound and the waters north of Oregon Inlet this morning...likely
due to the ongoing convection. Will continue SW flow for now, but
there is the potential for winds to become more northerly later
this morning. SW winds will continue today, though likely diminish
to 10-15 knots later this morning with seas remaining 2-3 feet.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon and evening, and some storms could become strong to
severe with gusty winds. A cold front will approach from the north
late today and move into the coastal waters tonight...with SW flow
becoming N/W by Wednesday morning.

Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 335 AM Tuesday, relatively quiet marine weather will persist
through the extended period. Winds will become NW then gradually
NE Wednesday into Thursday as a weak frontal boundary drifts east
across the waters. As a strong ridge of high pressure builds in
from the west, and the Bermuda surface ridge becomes dominant, SW
winds of 5-15 knots can be expected from Friday into the weekend.
Per wave models, seas will generally be 2-4 feet with a few
5-footers possible over the outer waters at times through the
extended period.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD/BM
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CTC/SK
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD/BM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
316 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-200815-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
316 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND. HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND 105 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
752 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

NCZ046-047-080-081-094-103-191230-
TYRRELL-BEAUFORT-OUTER BANKS DARE-MAINLAND HYDE-PAMLICO-WESTERN DARE-
752 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN
BEAUFORT...NORTHEASTERN PAMLICO...SOUTHERN MAINLAND DARE...EAST
CENTRAL OUTER BANKS DARE...SOUTHEASTERN TYRRELL AND MAINLAND HYDE
COUNTIES...

AT 751 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF HATTERAS ISLAND
FISHING PIER TO 11 MILES EAST OF AURORA FERRY TERMINAL. MOVEMENT WAS
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SWAN QUARTER FERRY TERMINAL AND BAYVIEW FERRY TERMINAL.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3577 7545 3541 7548 3538 7561 3549 7561
      3559 7556 3569 7559 3558 7566 3550 7584
      3530 7601 3524 7625 3526 7639 3519 7643
      3518 7649 3548 7683 3583 7547
TIME...MOT...LOC 1151Z 304DEG 31KT 3572 7525 3535 7654

SGK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
829 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

NCZ047-080-081-094-103-191330-
BEAUFORT-OUTER BANKS DARE-MAINLAND HYDE-PAMLICO-WESTERN DARE-
829 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL
BEAUFORT...NORTHEASTERN PAMLICO...SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND DARE...EAST
CENTRAL OUTER BANKS DARE AND MAINLAND HYDE COUNTIES...

AT 829 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF HATTERAS ISLAND FISHING
PIER TO 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BELHAVEN. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HATTERAS ISLAND FISHING PIER AND SWAN QUARTER FERRY TERMINAL.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3568 7545 3536 7546 3534 7560 3549 7561
      3559 7556 3569 7559 3566 7561 3558 7567
      3549 7585 3530 7601 3524 7626 3526 7639
      3520 7644 3548 7671 3575 7548
TIME...MOT...LOC 1229Z 310DEG 15KT 3568 7550 3548 7652

SGK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
926 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

NCZ103-104-191415-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
926 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN OUTER
BANKS DARE AND NORTHEASTERN OUTER BANKS HYDE COUNTIES...

AT 925 AM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE CLUSTERED OVER AVON
PIER...OR 64 MILES SOUTH OF GRANDY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AVON PIER...HATTERAS FERRY TERMINAL AND CAPE HATTERAS LIGHTHOUSE.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3544 7546 3520 7546 3514 7577 3525 7584
      3532 7560 3539 7561
TIME...MOT...LOC 1325Z 334DEG 35KT 3534 7554

SGK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
933 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

NCZ081-191415-
MAINLAND HYDE-
933 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN MAINLAND HYDE
COUNTY...

AT 933 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 17 MILES NORTHWEST OF HATTERAS FERRY
TERMINAL TO 8 MILES WEST OF SWAN QUARTER FERRY TERMINAL. MOVEMENT WAS
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SWAN QUARTER FERRY TERMINAL.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3531 7601 3524 7625 3527 7644 3542 7655
      3552 7591 3542 7591
TIME...MOT...LOC 1333Z 310DEG 30KT 3542 7587 3536 7646

SGK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1054 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

NCZ090-098-191545-
ONSLOW-DUPLIN-
1054 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN DUPLIN AND CENTRAL
ONSLOW COUNTIES...

AT 1054 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER MAPLE
HILL...OR 12 MILES WEST OF NEW RIVER STATION...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JACKSONVILLE...NEW RIVER STATION...PINEY GREEN...
CAMP LEJEUNE CENTER AND SNEADS FERRY.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3455 7761 3472 7768 3472 7770 3475 7769
      3478 7725 3453 7728
TIME...MOT...LOC 1454Z 273DEG 26KT 3467 7766

SGK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1147 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

NCZ092-093-095-098-191630-
CARTERET-ONSLOW-JONES-CRAVEN-
1147 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ONSLOW...WEST CENTRAL
CARTERET...SOUTHERN CRAVEN AND SOUTHEASTERN JONES COUNTIES...

AT 1147 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER NEW RIVER
STATION...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JACKSONVILLE...HALF MOON...NEW RIVER STATION...PINEY GREEN...
CAMP LEJEUNE CENTER...PUMPKIN CENTER...SWANSBORO...CAPE CARTERET...
MAYSVILLE...BOGUE INLET PIER...RICHLANDS SOUTH AND CEDAR POINT.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3484 7755 3498 7716 3465 7701 3460 7751
TIME...MOT...LOC 1547Z 257DEG 18KT 3474 7745

SGK