River Flood Warning 14, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

843 
WGUS82 KMHX 010133
FLSMHX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY, NC
833 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...
  Tar River At Greenville affecting Pitt County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive vehicles through flooded areas. Most flood deaths occur 
in automobiles when people try to drive through flooded areas.

Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio...local
radio...media or cable TV.

&&

NCC147-011800-
/O.CON.KMHX.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-160301T1800Z/
/PGVN7.1.ER.160229T2053Z.160229T2100Z.160301T1200Z.NO/
833 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tar River At Greenville.
* until Tuesday afternoon...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 7 PM Monday the stage was 13.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...Minor flooding of low lying areas adjacent 
  to the river can be expected.

&&
                  Fld  Observed         Forecast 8PM
Location          Stg  Stg  Day Time    Tue   Wed   Thu
  Greenville      13  13.0 Mon 08 PM   12.9  12.1  10.6

LAT...LON 3577 7751 3565 7736 3564 7729 3556 7733
          3559 7742 3573 7757        

$$

651 
WGUS82 KMHX 011611
FLSMHX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY, NC
1111 AM EST TUE MAR 1 2016

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...
 
  Tar River At Greenville affecting Pitt County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive vehicles through flooded areas. Most flood deaths occur 
in automobiles when people try to drive through flooded areas.

Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio...local
radio...media or cable TV.

&&

NCC147-011641-
/O.CAN.KMHX.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-160301T1800Z/
/PGVN7.1.ER.160229T2053Z.160301T0215Z.160301T1300Z.NO/
1111 AM EST TUE MAR 1 2016

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Tar River At Greenville.
* At10 AM Tuesday the stage was 13.0 feet.
* Fell below flood stage at  8:00 AM Tuesday.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 12.6 feet by tomorrow
  morning.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...Minor flooding of low lying areas adjacent 
  to the river can be expected.

&&
                  Fld  Observed         Forecast 8AM
Location          Stg  Stg  Day Time    Wed   Thu   Fri
  Greenville      13  13.0 Tue 11 AM   12.6  11.3   9.5

LAT...LON 3577 7751 3565 7736 3564 7729 3556 7733
          3559 7742 3573 7757        

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
650 AM EST MON FEB 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE
WEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE ON
THURSDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 650 AM MON...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 992MB LOW NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA WITH ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE SE
COAST. BEAUTIFUL DAY EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NC WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND GUSTY SW WINDS. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SFC
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THOUGH LITTLE IMPACT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER. MAINLY JUST
SOME INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. SW WINDS BECOME
MORE WLY LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...SW/W FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS 5-7C
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS LIGHT NE/E LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUE MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...CONT WARM AND DRY TUE WITH GOOD SW FLOW
BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRES AND APPROACHING FRONT. NO CHANGE TO
PREV FCST WITH UPR 60S/LOW 70S MOST INLAND SPOTS TO 60S BEACHES.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT...MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WED. WITH FASTER SOLUTION LOOKS LIKE
LESS QPF AND PROB NOT MUCH THUNDER WITH BEST CHCS NEAR CST EARLY
WED. KEPT POPS IN CHC RANGE WITH NOW LOOKING LIKE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN WILL BE FROM 06Z TO 18Z WED WITH RAPID DRYING WED AFTN.
REMOVED POPS FOR LATER WED AND WED NIGHT GIVEN MDL AGREEMENT. MILD
TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S...HIGHS WED 60 TO 65 AHEAD OF
FRONT. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND CAA BEHIND FRONT WED NIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE 30S INLAND WITH LOWER 40S BEACHES.

THURSDAY...THIS WILL BE A QUIET DAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...MDLS AGAIN IN A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT. GFS STILL NOT AS STRONG AS ECMWF/CANADIAN WITH LOW PRES
OFF CST FRI BUT AT LEAST NOW DOES SHOW THE LOW WITH DECENT QPF.
BASED ON MDLS UPPED POPS TO GOOD CHC SRN TIER LATER THU NIGHT
THEN LIKELY MOST AREAS FRI AS THE LOW PASSES OFF THE CST. SYSTEM
IS PROGRESSIVE AND PRECIP WILL END FROM W TO E FRI NIGHT. COOL TEMPS
THIS PERIOD WITH LOWS THU NIGHT UPR 30S TO LOW 40S...HIGHS FRI IN
THE 50 TO 55 DEG RANGE WITH GUSTY NNE WIND. AS CLOUDS DIMINISH FRI
NIGHT LOWS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 30S INLAND.

SAT THRU SUN...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
ZONAL AND MAINLY HIGH PRES AT THE SFC. HIGHS SAT UPR 40S TO LOW
50S WILL WARM INTO MID/UPR 50S INLAND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MENTION THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING. SW WIND GUSTS 20-25KT LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY. FEW/SCT
CLOUDS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH BASES 5-10KFT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MON...VFR EXPECTED TUE WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE W. BEST CHC OF SHRA WITH FRONT EXPECTED 06Z THRU 18Z WED
WITH PROB A FEW PDS OF SUB VFR. DRIES OUT LATER WED AND SHLD SEE
VFR LATE WED AFTN THRU THU EVENING. SUB VFR WILL BECOME LIKELY
LATE THU NIGHT AND ESPCLY FRI AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS TO THE S AND
TRACKS NE OFF THE CST WITH GOOD CVRG OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 15-25KT AND SEAS
2-5FT NORTH OF OREGON INLET AND 5-8FT SOUTH. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SCA CONTINUES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND.
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
EXTENDED SCA A FEW HOURS FOR ALL ZONES BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE.
COULD SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT ON THE INLAND RIVERS LATE THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. VEERING WINDS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. FLOW BECOMES LIGHT...AOB 10KT...LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MON...LIGHT WINDS EARLY TUE WITH HIGH ALONG CST WILL
BECOME SSW 10 TO 15 KTS LATE AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. SEAS
WILL BE 2 TO 3 FEET TUE. SSW WED STEADILY INCREASE TUE NIGHT AHEAD
OF APPROACHING FRONT WITH SPEEDS REACHING 15 TO 25 KTS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FEET...HIGHEST OUTER CNTRL/SRN WTRS. SW WINDS
PEAK EARLY WED WITH SPEEDS 15 TO 25 KTS NRN WTRS AND SOUNDS AND
20 TO 30 KTS CENTRAL/SRN WTRS. THESE WINDS WILL LEAD TO SEAS AS
HIGH AS 7 TO 9 FEET OUTER CNTRL WTRS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW
AND N BEHIND FRONT WED NIGHT WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 20
KTS. HIGH PRES WILL CROSS THU WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT NE AND
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET. N TO NE WINDS INCREASE LATER THU
NIGHT AND FRI AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS TO THE S AND TRACKS NE OFFSHORE
OF THE CST. HAVE SCA WINDS DEVELOPING FRI WITH SEAS 5 TO 7
FT...THESE MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED A BIT IF STRONGER ECMWF IS
CORRECT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CQD/RF
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF/CTC
AVIATION...CQD/RF
MARINE...CQD/RF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
238 AM EST MON FEB 29 2016

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-010900-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
238 AM EST MON FEB 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.