Winter Storm Watch 4, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1052 PM PST SUN JAN 17 2016

.DISCUSSION...THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. ALSO,
PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS
REGARDING THE UPCOMING WEATHER PATTERN TONIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF
THIS WEEK. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18/06Z TAF CYCLE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY END OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
WILL FORM IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS WITH IFR/LIFR AT KRBG, KMFR AND
PERHAPS KLMT. THE LOWER CONDITIONS SHOULD CLEAR TO VFR MOST AREAS
LATE MONDAY MORNING. THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST MONDAY
WITH RAIN AND MVFR CIGS ARRIVING AT THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION SPREADS INLAND DURING THE EVENING ALONG WITH
LOWERING CIGS. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...VERY STEEP SWELL DOMINATED SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED SOUTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP
SEAS LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL STRONG
FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH GALES
POSSIBLE TUESDAY. SVEN/SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 823 PM PST SUN JAN 17 2016/

UPDATE...THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED EARLIER THIS EVENING TO CLEAN
UP SOME OF THE WIND HEADLINES, LOWER THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND
ADJUST SNOW LEVELS DOWNWARD/SNOW AMOUNTS UPWARD (ABOVE 4500 FEET
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 140) BASED ON WEB CAMS NEAR DIAMOND LAKE SHOWING
SOME PRETTY GOOD SNOW SHOWERS.

DISCUSSION...A POTENT COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST OF THE CASCADES
CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD THIS EVENING.
THIS FRONT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES FROM THE
CURRY COAST SOUTHWARD TO WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. 1 TO 3 INCH RAIN
AMOUNTS WERE COMMON ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST SIDE,
INCLUDING HERE IN THE ROGUE VALLEY, WHERE RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT
WAS 1.13 INCHES AT THE AIRPORT (THROUGH 8 PM). THE HEAVY RAIN BAND
BROUGHT AREAL FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS AND URBAN AREAS IN
PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE, JACKSON AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES AND AN AREAL
FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES THERE THROUGH 1015 PM. SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS ARE STARTING TO TURN THE CORNER DOWNWARD, BUT SOME RIVERS
WILL STILL RISE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE COQUILLE WILL BE
MONITORED FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL AND THE ROGUE AT AGNESS CURRENTLY IS
UNDER FLOOD WARNING.

THERE CAN STILL BE SOME SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT, BUT PRECIPITATION WILL TREND DOWNWARD AND SHOULD END
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING IN ALL AREAS BUT THE FAR SOUTH AND
EAST. EXPECT SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS
TOWARD MORNING. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO THE COAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN RAIN WILL SPREAD INLAND MONDAY NIGHT. SPILDE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM PST SUN JAN 17 2016/

DISCUSSION...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER THE BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVIER RAIN IS ALREADY IN WESTERN
JOSEPHINE CURRY AND SOUTHEAST DOUGLAS COUNTY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE WERE A FEW SPOTTER REPORTS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS OVER BANKFULL
WITH SOME FLOODING NEAR APPLEGATE AND SELMA. GIVEN THAT SOME
FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING, HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A AREAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR JOSEPHINE, JACKSON AND SISKIYOU COUNTY UNTIL 10:15 PM
PST THIS EVENING. ALSO THERE IS CONCERN FOR FLOODING AT THE SOUTH
FORK COQUILLE AT MYRTLE POINT AND AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE RFC,
WE'LL BE ISSUING A FLOOD WARNING FOR THAT POINT. IN ADDITION A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BURN SCARS IN THE STABILITY OF
BURN SCARS IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AT THE JULY AND HAPPY CAMP
WILDFIRE COMPLEXES. SO FAR HAVE NOT SEEN ANY REPORTS OF ANY SLIDES
AT ANY OF THESE LOCATIONS, BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED.

MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SNOW LEVELS
WILL START OUT AROUND 6000 FEET, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN
4500 AND 5000 FEET TONIGHT. HOWEVER BY THAT TIME MOST OF THE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA, THUS
LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
EASTSIDE. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN BRIEFLY LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE INLAND MONDAY NIGHT, BUT THIS ONE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ALSO SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
LOWER AT AROUND 5000 FEET.

WIND HEADLINES REMAIN INTACT, EXCEPT DECIDED TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY
FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY AND TRIM DOWN THE COVERAGE AREA OF THE HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR
ASHLAND, BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OUR NEXT CONCERN COMES ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING INSIDE OF 130W EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND
MOVING NORTHEAST OFF THE OREGON COAST DURING THE DAY. THE MODELS
DIFFER WITH THE STRENGTH, TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. RIGHT
NOW THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS TRACKING THE LOW
NORTHEAST ALONG THE OREGON COAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, BUT HAVE
BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE STRENGTH. IN CONTRAST, THE EC AND
CANADIAN TRACK THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE OREGON/CAL BORDER.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND FOR NOW HAVE
MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO TUESDAY'S FORECAST.

THE WEATHER QUIETS DOWN AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS
IN, BUT A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY AND COULD BRING
LIGHT STEADY PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE CASCADES LATE IN THE DAY.
-PETRUCELLI

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT
AGREEMENT IN A CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE NEXT
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL EDGE INTO THE COAST ON THURSDAY AND THEN
REMAIN OVER OUR AREA UNTIL A KICKER SYSTEM WEAKENS AND DISPLACES IT
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ON FRIDAY. MOIST, WESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN SET
IN OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND, BUT IT LOOKS LOW ENOUGH IN AMPLITUDE THAT RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO SPILL OVER IT, AT LEAST FOR THE WEST SIDE. THE FLOW
ALOFT THEN BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST AGAIN, WITH A RETURN OF A DEEP SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. -WRIGHT

AVIATION...FOR THE 17/18Z TAF CYCLE...A COLD FRONT WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR IN RAIN AT ALL TERMINALS INLAND
FROM THE COAST, HOWEVER, A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE AS
THE MAIN RAIN BAND MOVES THROUGH. RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT, AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SKIES BRIEFLY CLEAR.
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED THROUGH TONIGHT. -WRIGHT

MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PST SUNDAY 17 JAN 2016...WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE WATERS AS A FRONT MOVES ONSHORE THIS
MORNING. SEAS WILL BECOME SWELL DOMINATED TODAY AS A HEAVY WEST
SWELL BUILDS IN AND CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL LOWER
SLIGHTLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED
SOUTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. SOUTH WINDS MAY REACH GALE FORCE IN THE WATERS
BEYOND 10 NM FROM SHORE ON MONDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT SMALL CRAFT WINDS ON MONDAY.
ADDITIONAL STRONG FRONTS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. OF NOTE, THE FRONT ON TUESDAY MAY BRING STRONG GALES TO THE
WATERS AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS.
-WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY FOR ORZ021-022.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
     TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST MONDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

MAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1102 PM PST SUN JAN 17 2016

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 ESE MERLIN            42.51N 123.37W
01/17/2016  M1.14 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR ENDING AT 11 PM OBSERVER LOCATION 1M
            E OF MERLIN AIRPORT.

&&

NWS MEDFORD OR
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1103 PM PST SUN JAN 17 2016

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1103 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SSE MOUNT SHASTA      41.28N 122.30W
01/17/2016  M3.29 INCH       SISKIYOU           CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 11 PM OBSERVER
            LOCATION 2 MI. S OF MT. SHASTA CITY.

&&

NWS MEDFORD OR
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1249 AM PST MON JAN 18 2016

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSE COOS BAY          43.36N 124.22W
01/18/2016  M1.88 INCH       COOS               OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ADDITIONALLY, THIS SPOTTER HAS HAD RAIN 47
            OUT OF THE LAST 49 DAYS. OBSERVER LOCATION
            SOUTH OF COOS BAY.

&&

BTL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1254 AM PST MON JAN 18 2016

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1135 AM     DOWNBURST        2 SSE COOS BAY          43.36N 124.22W
01/16/2016                   COOS               OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED WIND GUST 70-75MPH BLEW OFF
            SHINGLES AND CAUSED WIDESPREAD TREE DAMAGE.
            TIME OF EVENT IS ESTIMATED. OBSERVER
            LOCATION SOUTH OF COOS BAY.

&&

BTL