River Flood Watch 1, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
235 PM PST SUN JAN 17 2016

.DISCUSSION...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER THE BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVIER RAIN IS ALREADY IN WESTERN
JOSEPHINE CURRY AND SOUTHEAST DOUGLAS COUNTY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE WERE A FEW SPOTTER REPORTS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS OVER BANKFULL
WITH SOME FLOODING NEAR APPLEGATE AND SELMA. GIVEN THAT SOME
FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING, HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A AREAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR JOSEPHINE, JACKSON AND SISKIYOU COUNTY UNTIL 10:15 PM
PST THIS EVENING. ALSO THERE IS CONCERN FOR FLOODING AT THE SOUTH
FORK COQUILLE AT MYRTLE POINT AND AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE RFC,
WE'LL BE ISSUING A FLOOD WARNING FOR THAT POINT. IN ADDITION A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BURN SCARS IN THE STABILITY OF
BURN SCARS IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AT THE JULY AND HAPPY CAMP
WILDFIRE COMPLEXES. SO FAR HAVE NOT SEEN ANY REPORTS OF ANY SLIDES
AT ANY OF THESE LOCATIONS, BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED.

MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SNOW LEVELS
WILL START OUT AROUND 6000 FEET, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN
4500 AND 5000 FEET TONIGHT. HOWEVER BY THAT TIME MOST OF THE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA, THUS
LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
EASTSIDE. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN BRIEFLY LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE INLAND MONDAY NIGHT, BUT THIS ONE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ALSO SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
LOWER AT AROUND 5000 FEET.

WIND HEADLINES REMAIN INTACT, EXCEPT DECIDED TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY
FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY AND TRIM DOWN THE COVERAGE AREA OF THE HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR
ASHLAND, BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OUR NEXT CONCERN COMES ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING INSIDE OF 130W EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND
MOVING NORTHEAST OFF THE OREGON COAST DURING THE DAY. THE MODELS
DIFFER WITH THE STRENGTH, TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. RIGHT
NOW THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS TRACKING THE LOW
NORTHEAST ALONG THE OREGON COAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, BUT HAVE
BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE STRENGTH. IN CONTRAST, THE EC AND
CANADIAN TRACK THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE OREGON/CAL BORDER.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND FOR NOW HAVE
MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO TUESDAY'S FORECAST.

THE WEATHER QUIETS DOWN AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS
IN, BUT A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY AND COULD BRING
LIGHT STEADY PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE CASCADES LATE IN THE DAY.
-PETRUCELLI

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT
AGREEMENT IN A CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE NEXT
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL EDGE INTO THE COAST ON THURSDAY AND THEN
REMAIN OVER OUR AREA UNTIL A KICKER SYSTEM WEAKENS AND DISPLACES IT
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ON FRIDAY. MOIST, WESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN SET
IN OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND, BUT IT LOOKS LOW ENOUGH IN AMPLITUDE THAT RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO SPILL OVER IT, AT LEAST FOR THE WEST SIDE. THE FLOW
ALOFT THEN BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST AGAIN, WITH A RETURN OF A DEEP SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 17/18Z TAF CYCLE...A COLD FRONT WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR IN RAIN AT ALL TERMINALS INLAND
FROM THE COAST, HOWEVER, A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE AS
THE MAIN RAIN BAND MOVES THROUGH. RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT, AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SKIES BRIEFLY CLEAR.
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED THROUGH TONIGHT. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PST SUNDAY 17 JAN 2016...WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE WATERS AS A FRONT MOVES ONSHORE THIS
MORNING. SEAS WILL BECOME SWELL DOMINATED TODAY AS A HEAVY WEST
SWELL BUILDS IN AND CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL LOWER
SLIGHTLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED
SOUTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. SOUTH WINDS MAY REACH GALE FORCE IN THE WATERS
BEYOND 10 NM FROM SHORE ON MONDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT SMALL CRAFT WINDS ON MONDAY.
ADDITIONAL STRONG FRONTS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. OF NOTE, THE FRONT ON TUESDAY MAY BRING STRONG GALES TO THE
WATERS AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS.
-WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ORZ030-031.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ORZ029.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ084.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ080.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
404 PM PST SUN JAN 17 2016

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 ESE JACKSONVILLE      42.30N 122.92W
01/17/2016  M1.52 INCH       JACKSON            OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOURS ENDING 330 PM OBSERVER LOCATION
            ABOUT 3 MI EAST OF JACKSONVILLE.

&&

NWS MEDFORD OR
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
416 PM PST SUN JAN 17 2016

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0416 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 S MCCLOUD             41.22N 122.15W
01/17/2016  M2.45 INCH       SISKIYOU           CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR 4 PM TO 4 PM OBSERVER LOCATION NR
            I-5 & HWY 89.

&&

SBN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
420 PM PST SUN JAN 17 2016

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 W MERLIN              42.52N 123.50W
01/17/2016  M2.35 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL ENDING AT 4:00 PM.
            OBSERVER LOCATION EAST SIDE OF BUCKHORN MT.

&&

BS