Small Craft Advisory 31, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
355 PM PST SAT MAR 5 2016

UPDATED TO ADD AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.DISCUSSION...05/12Z NAM/GFS/EC IN.

THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC 500 MB CHART SHOWS A WAVE NUMBER OF FIVE
AROUND THE GLOBE WITH SIGNIFICANT LONGITUDINAL FLOW...INDICATIVE
OF AN ACTIVE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...WHICH IS CERTAINLY THE CASE
AROUND HERE.

A PLETHORA OF WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT AT THIS
TIME...COVERING THREE PARAMETERS...WIND...SURF...AND POSSIBLE
FLOODING. SEE THE HEADLINE SUMMARY BELOW AND THE LATEST
PDXNPWMFR...PDXCFWMFR...AND PDXFFAMFR PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS.
SOON ANOTHER ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR SNOW...DETAILS WILL
BE IN PDXWSWMFR.

CURRENTLY THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND
A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN STATES. THE STORM DOOR IS
OPEN AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS VULNERABLE TO SHORT WAVE
EJECTED BY THE OFFSHORE TROUGH...AND THE TROUGH ITSELF WHEN IT
MOVES ONSHORE.

WEAK SHORT WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH NOW AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. AT THIS TIME MOSTLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS FALLING OVER THE AREA WITH MODERATE WINDS OVER
THE FAVORED RIDGE LOCATIONS.

A MUCH STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE. THIS LOW WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS TO AROUND 975 MB OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH DURING THIS EVENT...AROUND 7000
FEET.

THE EJECTED SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE MONDAY
MORNING. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY...WHICH WILL BE
ENHANCED LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STRONGER SHORT
WAVE MOVES THROUGH ALOFT. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER THOUGH. BY THIS
TIME SNOW WILL BE A FACTOR AS SNOW LEVELS WILL PLUNGE TO 3000 TO
5000 FEET LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. IT NOW LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ABOVE 4000 FEET LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED FOR UP TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING
THIS INTERVAL.

A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING A SHORT BREAK IN THE ACTION. THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING LOOKS DRY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BREAK TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE STORM DOOR WILL OPEN ONCE
AGAIN. THE NEXT FRONT WILL PROCEED APACE...MOVING ONSHORE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. LIKE TODAY'S SYSTEM...THIS FRONT WILL BECOME PARALLEL
TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STALL OVER THE AREA WHILE LOWS DEVELOP
AN MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SUSTAINED MODERATE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN DURING THIS INTERVAL AND
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PATTERN IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD HAS NOT CHANGED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE
WITH A SERIES OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AS
ALWAYS, THE TIMING OF EACH ONE COULD VARY FROM ONE DAY TO THE
NEXT, SO STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
WE'LL HAVE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. RIGHT NOW THE STRONGEST OF
THESE STORMS IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FRONT AND BE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
EVENT. IN ADDITION THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL ALSO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION RATES ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS. IN A
NUT SHELL THIS MEANS WE COULD HAVE A 18-24 HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WHICH COULD RESULT IN URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING. ALSO THERE'S A CHANCE SOME OF THE MAINSTEM
RIVERS, LIKE THE COQUILLE AT COQUILLE AND SOUTH FORK COQUILLE AT
MYRTLE POINT COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. KEEP IN MIND WERE STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND THE DETAILS
COULD CHANGE, BUT IT'S SOMETHING WE'LL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME BROKEN UP. THE MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS WITH THE TIMING OF SYSTEMS FRIDAY INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND, BUT STILL POINT TO A CONTINUED ACTIVE PATTERN.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06/00Z TAF CYCLE...WIND SPEED SHEAR WILL BE
THEMAIN IMPACT INTO THIS EVENING FOR NORTH BEND, ROSEBURG, MEDFORD
AND KINGSLEY FIELD. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT KLAMATH FALLS INTO
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE FOR INLAND TERMINALS, BUT IT WILL REMAIN WINDY AT THE
COAST. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY VFR WITH LOCAL COVERAGE
OFMVFR AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION BUT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
SHOWERS WILL BRINGS CIGS/VIS DOWN TO MVFR ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 03Z-07Z.
/FB

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 100 PM PST SAT 05 MAR 2016...A LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT THIS EVENING RESULTING IN A RESURGENCE OF GALE TO STORM FORCE
WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEAS. WINDS WILL LIKELY EASE BELOW GALE FORCE
TONIGHT, BUT WARNING LEVEL SEAS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MARINERS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION OR JUST
REMAIN IN PORT THIS WEEKEND.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WITH A GRADUAL LOWERING OF WINDS AND SEAS
MONDAY, ANOTHER SERIES OF FRONTS WILL LIKELY BRING BOUTS OF STRONG
WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEAS AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM PST MONDAY
        ABOVE 4000 FEET FOR FOR ORZ029>031.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ORZ021.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ORZ021-022.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ORZ021-022-024.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ORZ023>025.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM PST MONDAY
        ABOVE 4000 FEET FOR FOR ORZ025-027-028.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ORZ026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ORZ028.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ084-085.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM PST MONDAY
        ABOVE 4000 FEET FOR FOR CAZ084-085.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CAZ080.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM PST MONDAY
        ABOVE 4000 FEET FOR FOR CAZ080-082-083.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ083.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ081-082.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CAZ082-083-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
        PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356.

15/15/08

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
423 PM PST SAT MAR 5 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WSW OBRIEN            42.06N 123.73W
03/05/2016  M2.10 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 3 PM. OBSERVER
            LOCATION 1.6 MILES FROM HWY 199 IN O BRIEN.

&&

BS

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