High Surf Advisory 15, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1018 PM PST SAT MAR 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG FRONT HAS REACHED THE CASCADES AND WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST SIDE OVERNIGHT. RAIN HAS TAPERED TO LIGHT
TO LOCALLY MODERATE SHOWERS WEST OF INTERSTATE 5. THE FORECAST
WAS UPDATED EARLIER THIS EVENING TO TRANSITION TO A HAZARDOUS SEAS
WARNING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT DECREASE
IN POST-FRONTAL WINDS. SNOW LEVELS ARE AROUND 5000 TO 5500 FEET
AND WILL FALL TO 3500 TO 4000 FEET AS PRECIPITATION NOTICEABLY
DIMINISHES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT FRONT
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AND IS ON TRACK TO REACH THE COAST LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEN MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW
LEVELS AROUND 4500 FEET FALLING TO 3500 FEET. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND PASSES OF THE
CASCADES AND THE EAST SIDE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAJORITY
OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED DURING SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN AN ARRIVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A FEW
WESTERN OREGON SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY WITH AROUND AN
INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ABOVE THE SNOW LEVEL...FORECAST AT
AROUND 3500 FEET. A RETURN TO WINDIER AND WETTER CONDITIONS REMAINS
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06/00Z TAF CYCLE...WIND SPEED SHEAR WILL LINGER FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING NEAR NORTH BEND WHILE STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST EAST OF THE CASCADES INTO THE LATE NIGHT...INCLUDING
AT KLAMATH FALLS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE FOR INLAND TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT, BUT IT WILL REMAIN WINDY AT
THE COAST. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY VFR WITH LOCAL COVERAGE OF
MVFR AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION BUT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
WILL BRINGS CIGS/VIS DOWN TO MVFR ESPECIALLY THROUGH 08Z OVER AND NEAR
THE CASCADES. /FB

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PST SAT 05 MAR 2016...WINDS BEHIND A
COLD FRONT HAVE DECREASED BELOW GALE FORCE. BUT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS MODERATE TO HIGH WIND WAVES COMBINE WITH BOTH A HIGH WEST
SWELL AND A HIGH FRESH SOUTHWEST SWELL. MARINERS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE
EXTREME CAUTION OR REMAIN IN PORT DURING THIS PERIOD OF STORMY
WEATHER. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WITH A GRADUAL LOWERING OF WINDS AND
SEAS MONDAY, ANOTHER SERIES OF FRONTS WILL LIKELY BRING BOUTS OF
STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEAS AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS COMPLEX WEATHER
PATTERN. /FB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM PST SAT MAR 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...05/12Z NAM/GFS/EC IN.

THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC 500 MB CHART SHOWS A WAVE NUMBER OF FIVE
AROUND THE GLOBE WITH SIGNIFICANT LONGITUDINAL FLOW...INDICATIVE
OF AN ACTIVE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...WHICH IS CERTAINLY THE CASE
AROUND HERE.

A PLETHORA OF WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT AT THIS
TIME...COVERING THREE PARAMETERS...WIND...SURF...AND POSSIBLE
FLOODING. SEE THE HEADLINE SUMMARY BELOW AND THE LATEST
PDXNPWMFR...PDXCFWMFR...AND PDXFFAMFR PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS.
SOON ANOTHER ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR SNOW...DETAILS WILL
BE IN PDXWSWMFR.

CURRENTLY THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND
A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN STATES. THE STORM DOOR IS
OPEN AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS VULNERABLE TO SHORT WAVE
EJECTED BY THE OFFSHORE TROUGH...AND THE TROUGH ITSELF WHEN IT
MOVES ONSHORE.

WEAK SHORT WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH NOW AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. AT THIS TIME MOSTLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS FALLING OVER THE AREA WITH MODERATE WINDS OVER
THE FAVORED RIDGE LOCATIONS.

A MUCH STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE. THIS LOW WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS TO AROUND 975 MB OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH DURING THIS EVENT...AROUND 7000
FEET.

THE EJECTED SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE MONDAY
MORNING. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY...WHICH WILL BE
ENHANCED LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STRONGER SHORT
WAVE MOVES THROUGH ALOFT. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER THOUGH. BY THIS
TIME SNOW WILL BE A FACTOR AS SNOW LEVELS WILL PLUNGE TO 3000 TO
5000 FEET LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. IT NOW LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ABOVE 4000 FEET LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED FOR UP TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING
THIS INTERVAL.

A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING A SHORT BREAK IN THE ACTION. THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING LOOKS DRY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BREAK TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE STORM DOOR WILL OPEN ONCE
AGAIN. THE NEXT FRONT WILL PROCEED APACE...MOVING ONSHORE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. LIKE TODAY'S SYSTEM...THIS FRONT WILL BECOME PARALLEL
TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STALL OVER THE AREA WHILE LOWS DEVELOP
AN MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SUSTAINED MODERATE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN DURING THIS INTERVAL AND
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PATTERN IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD HAS NOT CHANGED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE
WITH A SERIES OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AS
ALWAYS, THE TIMING OF EACH ONE COULD VARY FROM ONE DAY TO THE
NEXT, SO STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
WE'LL HAVE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. RIGHT NOW THE STRONGEST OF
THESE STORMS IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FRONT AND BE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
EVENT. IN ADDITION THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL ALSO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION RATES ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS. IN A
NUT SHELL THIS MEANS WE COULD HAVE A 18-24 HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WHICH COULD RESULT IN URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING. ALSO THERE'S A CHANCE SOME OF THE MAINSTEM
RIVERS, LIKE THE COQUILLE AT COQUILLE AND SOUTH FORK COQUILLE AT
MYRTLE POINT COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. KEEP IN MIND WERE STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND THE DETAILS
COULD CHANGE, BUT IT'S SOMETHING WE'LL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME BROKEN UP. THE MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS WITH THE TIMING OF SYSTEMS FRIDAY INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND, BUT STILL POINT TO A CONTINUED ACTIVE PATTERN.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM PST MONDAY
     ABOVE 4000 FEET FOR FOR ORZ029>031.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PST MONDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ021-022-024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM PST MONDAY
     ABOVE 4000 FEET FOR FOR ORZ025-027-028.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ084-085.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM PST MONDAY
     ABOVE 4000 FEET FOR FOR CAZ084-085.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ080.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM PST MONDAY
     ABOVE 4000 FEET FOR FOR CAZ080-082-083.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ082-083-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PST
     MONDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

DW/JRS/FJB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
834 PM PST SAT MAR 5 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HEAVY RAIN       7 ESE COOS BAY          43.35N 124.09W
03/05/2016  M1.17 INCH       COOS               OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OBSERVER LOCATION 12 MI SE OF COOS BAY.

&&

DW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
947 PM PST SAT MAR 5 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 N TAKILMA             42.09N 123.61W
03/05/2016                   JOSEPHINE          OR   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            BETWEEN 5- 520 PM WIND GUSTS KNOCKED DOWN
            SEVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES NEAR DICK
            GEORGE RD AND TAKILMA RD.

&&

SBN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1049 PM PST SAT MAR 5 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1048 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSW OBRIEN            42.05N 123.71W
03/05/2016  E4.00 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SINCE MIDNIGHT OBSERVER LOCATION 1 MI S OF
            OBRIEN.

&&

SBN