High Surf Advisory 3, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
943 AM PST TUE JAN 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
ASPECT IN THE SHORT TERM IS STRENGTHENING WINDS INTO THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE THE MAJOR PASSES
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN WILL DROP TO AROUND 4000 TO 4500 FEET BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM
CURRY COUNTY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN DIMINISHING
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE BREAK
BETWEEN SYSTEMS WILL BE BRIEF WITH ANOTHER FRONT TO ARRIVE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12/12Z TAF CYCLE. LOW LEVEL WIND SPEED SHEAR
WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT INTO THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
CASCADES. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AT THE COAST, ROSEBURG AND
MEDFORD LATE THIS MORNING, BUT SO WILL WINDS ALOFT. FOG WITH VLIFR
CIGS/VIS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR BETWEEN 15-16Z.
DOWNSLOPE WINDS AT MEDFORD ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP RAIN AT BAY AND VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT A BUMPY RIDE IS
EXPECTED WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. A BAND OF RA/SN MAY BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS TO KLMT EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING BACK VFR CONDITIONS AND HOLD OFF
ANY FURTHER PRECIPITATION UNTIL TONIGHT. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PST TUESDAY 12 JAN 2016...STRONG LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST OVER
THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS SOUTH WINDS AND VERY STEEP,
DANGEROUS SEAS. KEEP IN MIND DANGEROUS SEAS MAY WASH OVER JETTIES AT
SOUTH-FACING PORTS...INCLUDING PORT ORFORD. SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS AND
SEAS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 5 NM OF SHORE NORTH OF COOS BAY AND WITHIN
5 NM OF SHORE  SOUTH OF BROOKINGS, BUT WILL STILL BE A CONCERN. THE
MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
WATERS AROUND 6Z THIS EVENING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND
DECREASING, THUS ADJUSTED THE END TIME FOR THE GALES AND STORM FORCE
WINDS TO END AT 6Z. WINDS WILL EASE TONIGHT, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN
HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS AGAIN ON THURSDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE
NEXT LARGE SWELL APPROACHING 20 FEET TO MOVE IN THIS WEEKEND.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM PST TUE JAN 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...THE DAY STARTS INTO A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN THAT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THOUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. A VERY WINDY SYSTEM IS
ALREADY AT THE COAST THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
COAST LATE THIS MORNING 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 80KT. THE 850
WINDS ARE PARALLEL TO THE COAST AT FIRST, BUT TURN TO AROUND 210
AS THE GRADIENT NORTH TO SOUTH INCREASES...FORMING A BRIEF
COASTAL BARRIER JET. LIKEWISE INLAND THE GRADIENT FROM REDDING TO
MEDFORD TIGHTENS BRINGING STRONG WINDS IN THE SHASTA VALLEY THAT
SPILL INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY. 700 MB WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE
GOING TO BE VERY STRONG ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION INTO
TONIGHT...AND OVER THE EAST SIDE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING....NEARING
CLOSE TO 80KT OVER THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVING OVER
THE EAST SIDE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS VERY STRONG WARM
CONVEYOR FLOW WILL RAISE SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 6000-7000 FEET FOR THE
BULK OF THE EVENT AND HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER STORM WATCH IN
SISKIYOU COUNTY. THERE IS A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION WITH SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM IN LINE
MOVES IN THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE LOWER SNOW LEVELS AS THE
700 MB FLOW IS MORE WESTERLY AND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WINDY...BUT
NOT AS STRONG AS TODAYS SYSTEM. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A GOOD DEAL
LOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF BRIEF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE DOWN TO THE LOWER PASS LEVELS AND THE MOUNT
SHASTA AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE CURRENT WARNINGS IN PLACE WILL
NOT CONFUSE THIS WITH A WATCH AT THIS TIME. -SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ027-029>031.
     HIGH SURF WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY
     FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY
     FOR ORZ021-022.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ026.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ082-083-085.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ081.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ084.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
     HIGH SURF WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350.
     STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
     FOR PZZ370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370-376.

DW/NSK/MAP