Hazardous Seas Warning 8, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
903 AM PST WED JAN 13 2016

.UPDATE... CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER OUR
AREA WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE MARINE WATERS AND OVER
DEL NORTE COUNTY. DESPITE THESE STRIKES, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK AND WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER OVER LAND IN OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE WATERS WILL BE
DIMINISHING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE LIFTED INDICIES CONTINUE
TO RISE.

A SHORT WAVE WHICH IS BEYOND 60 NM OFFSHORE AS OF 9 AM WILL BE
MOVING EASTWARD OVER OUR AREA AND THIS WILL CREATE AN ADDITIONAL
BLANKET OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY AND THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
INCREASED POPS AND QPF, PARTICULARLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE THINGS QUICKLY TAPER OFF BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY. THEREFORE, WILL NEED TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE
CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND MAKE ANY NECESSARY CHANGES.

THE MAIN CHALLENGES FOR TODAY WILL BE TO FINE TUNE THE TIMING OF
THE NEXT SYSTEMS AS WELL AS THE SNOW LEVELS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
AS THEY COULD DROP NEAR HIGHER PASS LEVELS. -SCHAAF

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 AM PST WEDNESDAY 13 JAN 2016...A STRONG
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INLAND AND WINDS ARE SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY DECREASING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE WATERS LATE THIS MORNING, THEN MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. A
STRONG WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWEST OF THE WATERS FRIDAY, THEN
ANOTHER STRONG FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A VERY LARGE WESTERLY SWELL
WITH PERIOD NEAR 20 SECONDS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM PST WED JAN 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ARE OVER THE REGION AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST THIS MORNING. A FEW STROKE OF LIGHTNING
ARE OCCURRING OFFSHORE AS THE COLD POOL MOVES IN ON THE TRAILING
EDGE OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT EVEN COLDER AIR MOVES IN BUT
THERE IS A DRY LAYER AND AN INVERSION RESULTING IN LI'S OF 6 OR
GREATER AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE DONE IN THIS AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT. LOW TOPPED SHOWERS SLOWLY TAPER OFF IN THE COLD ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. THE NEXT FRONT MOVES ONSHORE ON THE NOSE OF A 120KT JET
THURSDAY MORNING. THE 700 MB WINDS ARE MUCH MORE WESTERLY AND SNOW
LEVELS WILL DROP DOWN TO THE CASCADE PASSES AND SISKIYOU
SUMMIT...AND POSSIBLY DROP DOWN TO THE LOWER I-5 PASSES WITH SNOW
ADVISORY AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE CASCADES AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST
SIDE. SHOWERS TAPER OFF AGAIN IN A REPEAT OF TODAYS PATTERN AS A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY. THE NEXT
FRONT MOVES IN SATURDAY MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE THE
PASSES IN A STRONG SOUTHERLY WARM CONVEYOR FLOW PATTER SIMILAR TO
THE ONE THAT WAS OVER THE REGION YESTERDAY. SVEN

AVIATION...FOR THE 13/06Z TAF CYCLE. WIND SHEAR WILL BE A
CONCERN AT TERMINALS UNTIL 14Z AT THE COAST AND BETWEEN 17-19Z
INLAND AS GUIDANCE SHOWS 40-50 KTS ABOUT 2000 FEET AGL. IFR CIGS AT
THE COAST SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THEN VFR
AROUND 18Z, BUT OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. INLAND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED IN SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN IFR CIGS AT ROSEBURG LATE TONIGHT.
-PETRUCELLI

MARINE...UPDATED 400 AM PST WEDNESDAY 13 JAN 2016...THE FRONT HAS
MOVED INLAND AND WINDS HAVE DECREASE OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER A
FRESH SOUTH SWELL REMAINS AND THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE EXISTING
WESTERLY SWELL COULD RESULT IN BRIEF HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT THE TREND IS FOR SEAS TO SUBSIDE THIS
MORNING INTO TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WATERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
STRONG WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE WATERS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS THAT COULD REACH GALES FROM LATE THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF
THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST
AND DECREASE. THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A VERY LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WITH PERIOD NEAR 20
SECONDS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ORZ027>031.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CAZ080-082-083-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

BMS/SBN/MAP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
925 AM PST WED JAN 13 2016

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SSW SUNNY VALLEY      42.59N 123.41W
01/13/2016  M1.49 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL. OBSERVER LOCATION 10 MI N OF
            GP AT BOTTOM OF SEXTON MT.

&&

CS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
930 AM PST WED JAN 13 2016

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 ENE NORTH BEND        43.42N 124.20W
01/13/2016  M1.68 INCH       COOS               OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL. OBSERVER LOCATION 3 MI E OF
            NORTH BEND.

&&

CS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
952 AM PST WED JAN 13 2016

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 AM     HEAVY RAIN       KERBY                   42.19N 123.65W
01/13/2016  M1.67 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAIN FELL FROM 5:30 LAST NIGHT UNTIL READING
            TAKEN AT 9:30. OBSERVER LOCATION MIDDLE OF
            KERBY BEHIND STONE FRONT TAVERN.

&&

BS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1049 AM PST WED JAN 13 2016

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSW OBRIEN            42.05N 123.71W
01/13/2016  M2.06 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2.06 INCHES 24-HR RAINFALL TOTAL. OBSERVER
            LOCATION 1 MI S OF OBRIEN.

&&

NSK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1109 AM PST WED JAN 13 2016

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1108 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 W MERLIN              42.51N 123.49W
01/13/2016  E0.70 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   PUBLIC

            2 HOUR TOTAL

&&

CS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1110 AM PST WED JAN 13 2016

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 W MERLIN              42.51N 123.49W
01/13/2016  E2.00 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   PUBLIC

            24 HOUR TOTAL

&&

CS