Freeze Warning 12, NWS Medford, OR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
408 AM PST Thu Dec 15 2016

.SHORT TERM..A cold front is moving into the Cascades this
morning and will move southeast during the day. Moderate to heavy
rain will continue to affect areas Northern California. As the
front moves to the southeast, expect areas west of the Cascades
in Oregon to see diminishing rain by late this morning. East of
the Cascades and in Northern California,  the band of
precipitation will shift southeastward with decreasing chances
for precipitation by late afternoon for most areas. However continued
precipitation is likely in the Modoc and southern Lake county
areas this evening into tonight. However, precipitation rates are
expected to decrease tonight in these areas.

Rainfall totals for the last 24 hours have been very heavy with
this frontal system. Along the coast, reports indicate 4 to 6 inches
fell in Curry county with some coastal mountain areas receiving up
to 9 inches of rain in 24 hours. Much of Josephine county,
recieved 4 to 5 inches of rain in the last 24 hours and there was
around 3 to 4 inches in Douglas county and 2 to 3 inches in
Jackson County. Rain has diminished for most these areas early
this morning as the frontal band works its way east. There will
continue to be rain over portions of Jackson county this morning
through. The heavy rain has brought many rivers to near bankfull
and a several rivers have risen or are forecast to rise to flood,
including portions of the Coquille River, the Rogue River at
Agness and Deer Creek at Roseburg. See the FLSMFR for details.
Additionally flooding on small streams across southwest Oregon,
remains a concern as these streams peak this morning. Minor
flooding has been reported in Josephine county such as near Kerby.
Also Little Butte Creek in Jackson County is expected to reach
minor flood stage this morning. Other small streams in the area
may also experience flooding this morning. A flood watch remains
in effect for coastal areas and into Josephine and Jackson
Counties this morning.

Rainfall in Siskiyou county continues this morning. Past reports
indicate 3 to 5 inches fell in the last 24 hours over Western
Siskiyou county with around 2 to 3 inches in the Scott Valley and
Mount Shasta areas. Rainfall rates will decrease late this
morning in Western Siskiyou County. However expect additional
rainfall of around 1.5 to 2 inches in the Mount Shasta area this
morning and this afternoon. As the frontal band moves into Modoc
County, expect rainfall of around an inch possible today through
this evening. Then precipitaion rates will decrease overnight and
snow levels will lower to valley floors in the Modoc county area.
These rainfall totals will bring rising streams with the potential
for flooding in some areas. A flood watch is in effect through
today for these areas. See the FFAMFR for details.

Although snow levels are high across most the area, snow levels
have remained low for northern Klamath and far northern Lake
counties. These areas will continue to see snow this morning with
another 1 to 2 inches of snow expected for areas from Chemult
north and in the Fort Rock area. Snowfall will decrease late this
morning as the front moves southeast. A winter weather advisory is
in effect for these areas through the morning.

Lastly, of concern with this front, winds have been strong and
gusty in the mountains east of the Cascades and in the Summer Lake
area overnight. These winds are gradually decreasing and are
expected to lower by late this morning. See the NPWMFR for
details.

Behind the front, expect a drier weather pattern. An upper trough
will bring some isolated to scattered showers tonight into Friday.
On Friday, a very cold airmass will setting over the region. This
combined with clearing skies Friday night, will result in very
cold temperatures. Areas east of the Cascades are expected to see
temperatures lower to near or below zero Friday night. West of the
Cascades, inland valleys are expected in the 20s in Southwest
Oregon and in the teens to 20s in western and central Siskiyou
County. Coastal areas may also experience freezing conditions
Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION...15/12Z TAF CYCLE...CIGS are expected to gradually
increase this morning as the front slowly moves southeast. However
it may not get any better than MVFR. It's possible brief VFR cigs
could develop in the Rogue Valley in the afternoon, but not
confident enough to put it into the TAF. VFR CIGS are currently at
the coast. Conditions will deteriorate again in the evening, with
widespread IFR likely west of the Cascades overnight. -Petrucelli

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Thursday 15 December 2016...offshore
high pressure will build west of the waters today with lighter north
winds. However, the fresh south swell generated by the south winds
ahead of the upper low are expected to continue through tonight.
North winds will increase some with borderline small craft possible
in the southern outer waters late this afternoon and evening. Calmer
conditions are expected Friday into next weekend. The models
continue to show a very high and very long period swell may possibly
move into the waters Tuesday. -Petrucelli

&&

.PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION... /Issued 322 PM PST Wed Dec 14
2016/

Saturday through Wednesday...It will be a cold start to the
weekend Saturday morning with at least freezing temperatures over
the entire area inland from the immediate coast. With mainly clear
skies, fresh snow cover, and a 1030 mb surface high parked just to
the east, the east side will be quite cold. Lows Saturday morning
will be below zero over much of the east side, with lows
potentially 10 to 15 degrees below zero over northern Klamath and
Lake counties. On Sunday, the GFS shows a weak disturbance
bringing some snow showers to the north Cascades and portions of
the east side. The ECMWF and GEM show the disturbance much further
north and not affecting us at all. It's worthy of some low pops,
but we've definitely skewed it toward the drier solutions. Monday
should be dry as a weak ridge pokes in over us, but by Tuesday and
Wednesday, another system is likely to bring precipitation to our
area. All the models show a moderately wet system during this
timeframe, but there are some timing differences with the ECMWF
being about 12 hours faster than any other model. Snow levels
should be high enough (4000 feet plus) that impacts will be mostly
in the mountains. However, the east side may see snow in places.
-Wright

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Wind Warning until 7 AM PST this morning for ORZ030-031.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for
     ORZ030-031.
     Wind Advisory until 7 AM PST this morning for ORZ030-031.
     Flood Watch until 4 AM PST early this morning for
     ORZ021-022-024-026-028.

CA...High Wind Warning until 7 AM PST this morning for CAZ085.
     Wind Advisory until 7 AM PST this morning for CAZ085.
     Flood Watch through this afternoon for CAZ080>083.
     Flood Watch through this evening for CAZ084-085.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Flood Watch until 4 AM PST early this morning for PZZ356.

CC/Petrucelli

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1205 AM PST THU DEC 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     HEAVY RAIN       GLENDALE                42.74N 123.43W
12/15/2016  U4.13 INCH       DOUGLAS            OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            . THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS
            24 HOURS.

&&

CC