Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
322 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Dewpoint pooling has allowed heat indices to jump into the 105
to 109 degree range over the most of the CWA. This will be short
lived as the Mid-South will be entering into a wet pattern that
will continue through the weekend into early next week.

Showers and thunderstorms are developing rapidly across Northern
Arkansas and Southern Missouri at this time along old outflow
boundaries from a dying MCS that occurred over Eastern Oklahoma
this morning. These storms will become severe as they push into
the Mid-South and interact the hot and unstable airmass. The
storms will likely converge into a line during the late afternoon
and early evening hours. Damaging winds will be the main threats
from these storms as well as locally heavy rainfall. These storms
will push into the Memphis area between 6-8 PM. The threat for
severe weather will diminish by midnight from the loss of daytime
heating.

After midnight...expect a lull in the activity over the Mid-South.
However...expect another MCS to develop over Southwest Missouri
near the vicinity of a weak cold front during the early morning
hours. This MCS will begin to push into Northeast Arkansas around
sunrise. The convection will move into the Memphis area between 7
am and noon. The strength of the convection will dwindle by
mid-day. By afternoon, expect some development across North
Mississippi along old outflow boundaries. The rest of the Mid-South
may see another break in activity due to the atmosphere being
worked over.

By Saturday Night into Sunday, a weak upper low moves over the
Mid-South. The upper low will help generate numerous showers and
thunderstorms over the area Saturday Night which may continue into
Sunday. Confidence starts dropping with Sunday as just getting
too far out to pinpoint where and when REDEVELOPMENT of
thunderstorms will occur. With the weak upper low over the Mid-South,
would think at least some development would occur but a lot will
depend on just how worked over the atmosphere is.

Temperatures will be cooler over the weekend due to the convection
and cloud cover. Expect most of the CWA will see highs in the 80s.
Chances for severe storms will occur through the weekend. The
biggest threat may come from flash flooding by the latter part of
the weekend depending on how much rain falls with the convection
tonight and into Saturday.

Next week, the upper low will lift out of the Mid-South.
Temperatures will begin to warm back up into the lower to mid 90s.
Expect chances for rain to become more diurnally driven after
Monday.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

Mainly VFR conds expected through the period. Main challenge will
be the timing of SHRAS/TSRAS. Right now watching a complex
starting to take shape over NW AR/SW MO that is expected to
develop and track across mainly the northern sections of the Mid-
South later this afternoon into this evening. Best chance for TSRA
on station will be at KJBR. Added a VCTS at KMEM, since activity
may skirt the northern gates, and at KMKL. Confidence in timing
after this first round is low. Guidance points to another complex
moving out of AR in the morning so added a VCTS to KJBR/KMEM for
Saturday morning. Gusty SW winds this afternoon will diminish
tonight. Front dropping south into the area on Saturday will
result in winds shifting to the north at KJBR, with light and
variable winds at KMKL and light WSW winds at KMEM and KTUP.

SJM

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lawrence-Lee AR-Mississippi-
     Phillips-Poinsett-Randolph-St. Francis.

MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Benton MS-Coahoma-
     DeSoto-Lafayette-Marshall-Panola-Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate-
     Tunica.

TN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Benton TN-Carroll-
     Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-
     Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-
     McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
157 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-092100-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
157 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT NORTHWEST OF AN OXFORD
MISSISSIPPI TO SAVANNAH TENNESSEE LINE. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...MAINLY IN
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND WEST TENNESSEE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE
WEEKEND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SJM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
458 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

ARZ026-027-082230-
CRAIGHEAD AR-POINSETT AR-
458 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR...

SOUTH CENTRAL CRAIGHEAD COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
WESTERN POINSETT COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

AT 457 PM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING PEA SIZE
HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR GREENFIELD TO NEAR BEEDEVILLE...AND MOVING EAST
AT 20 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL CRAIGHEAD AND WESTERN POINSETT COUNTIES
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3558 9104 3577 9085 3578 9057 3544 9089
      3544 9104
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 262DEG 15KT 3572 9079 3547 9105

JOHNSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
504 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

TNZ001-002-082230-
LAKE TN-OBION TN-
504 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR...

NORTHEASTERN LAKE COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...
NORTHWESTERN OBION COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...

AT 504 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR
LARGER AND WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED NEAR TIPTONVILLE...OR 9
MILES EAST OF PORTAGEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN LAKE AND NORTHWESTERN OBION COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3630 8926 3630 8953 3634 8954 3635 8952
      3638 8951 3642 8954 3644 8954 3646 8952
      3648 8952 3650 8954 3650 8949 3647 8949
      3646 8948 3646 8946 3650 8942 3651 8927
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 265DEG 11KT 3640 8954

JOHNSON

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