Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
112 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for aviation discussion

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1059 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016/

UPDATE...

Hot and humid start across the Mid-South this morning. Skies are
mostly sunny. However, conditions will change by this afternoon.
Current satellite and radar images show a large thunderstorm
complex developing over Eastern Oklahoma. Latest HRRR model run show
this complex blossoming over Southern Missouri and Northern
Arkansas as it moves east and interacts with a hot and humid
airmass. The complex will move into Northeast Arkansas and the
Missouri Bootheel after 3-4 PM CDT. Will update POPs to likelys.
Update will be out shortly.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /issued 320 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016/

Temperatures are mostly in the upper 70s across the Midsouth with
Memphis Airport the warmest location at 81 degrees. The coolest
temperatures can be found near the Tennessee River where Paris and
Savannah are in the lower 70s. Morning lows will likely range from
71 to 79 degrees across the Midsouth. To our Northwest...a
weakening line of thunderstorms is tracking to the Southeast at
around 30 mph. Short term guidance has this line moving more
Easterly than what Radar indicates. We could see a few showers
make it into Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel by
sunrise.

Over the next 24 hours or so we will transition into a slightly
cooler and wetter pattern. A ridge and surface High over the
Southeastern US will gradually weaken and a weak cold front will
approach the Midsouth from the North. Guidance is not in very good
agreement with respect to how far south this feature makes
it...but nevertheless its presence should enhance shower and
thunderstorm coverage. Afternoon highs today are expected to be in
the low to middle 90s. High temperatures may be curbed a bit in
Northern areas due to cloud cover from the approaching showers and
thunderstorms. Heat indices may exceed 100 degrees but are
expected to remain below the heat advisory threshold of 105
degrees. The cold front probably won't make it much farther South
than the Missouri Bootheel this afternoon before stalling.
Northeast Arkansas...the Missouri Bootheel and Northern portions
of West Tennessee will likely see showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon. This time of year...pretty much any thunderstorms can
be strong in nature...but there isn't much to suggest a threat of
widespread severe storms.

Tonight into early Saturday...Northwest flow will strengthen
across the Midsouth. A couple of weak impulses will track through
the mean flow with a weak positively tilted shortwave approaching
West Tennessee Saturday morning. We will remain under Northwest
flow through the weekend...with a deeper positively tilted
trough...maybe even a cutoff low developing by Sunday afternoon.
Most if not all of the Midsouth can expect showers and
thunderstorms over the weekend. Isolated strong or severe storms
cannot be ruled out...but again there isn't much to suggest a
threat of widespread severe storms. Expect near normal
temperatures this weekend...highs should be upper 80s to low 90s
with lows in the low to middle 70s.

Seasonal temperatures are expected will continue through the
upcoming work week giving us a break from warmer than normal
temperatures we have endured recently.

The GFS keeps a cutoff low over the Midsouth early next week while
the ECMWF is more progressive and has a ridge building over the
region. Will keep a few thunderstorms in Monday...with drier
conditions returning by midweek.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

Mainly VFR conds expected through the period. Main challenge will
be the timing of SHRAS/TSRAS. Right now watching a complex
starting to take shape over NW AR/SW MO that is expected to
develop and track across mainly the northern sections of the Mid-
South later this afternoon into this evening. Best chance for TSRA
on station will be at KJBR. Added a VCTS at KMEM, since activity
may skirt the northern gates, and at KMKL. Confidence in timing
after this first round is low. Guidance points to another complex
moving out of AR in the morning so added a VCTS to KJBR/KMEM for
Saturday morning. Gusty SW winds this afternoon will diminish
tonight. Front dropping south into the area on Saturday will
result in winds shifting to the north at KJBR, with light and
variable winds at KMKL and light WSW winds at KMEM and KTUP.

SJM

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
157 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-092100-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
157 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT NORTHWEST OF AN OXFORD
MISSISSIPPI TO SAVANNAH TENNESSEE LINE. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...MAINLY IN
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND WEST TENNESSEE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE
WEEKEND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SJM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
220 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

ARZ008-017-082000-
RANDOLPH AR-LAWRENCE AR-
220 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 300 PM CDT FOR...

RANDOLPH COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

AT 220 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR
LARGER AND WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED NEAR ATTICA...OR 8 MILES
NORTHWEST OF POCAHONTAS...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN RANDOLPH AND NORTHERN LAWRENCE COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS
STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3624 9133 3624 9126 3633 9126 3633 9128
      3637 9128 3638 9129 3650 9126 3649 9077
      3643 9077 3643 9078 3642 9076 3641 9077
      3641 9075 3638 9075 3629 9077 3629 9079
      3628 9081 3615 9080 3604 9084 3616 9135
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 281DEG 20KT 3632 9110