Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1141 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.DISCUSSION... /issued 343 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016/

Models in general agreement on the weather pattern for this week.
We start out with an upper high moving to the west and allowing
northwest flow to dominate the pattern for the rest of the week.
The upper high moving to the west and the northwest flow aloft
will push a surface high pressure system into the area by mid-
week. On the forward edge of the high pressure system is a cold
front which will slowly travel south across the Mid-South today
into Tuesday.

The frontal system should kickoff thunderstorms today. Expect more
thunderstorms this afternoon, however, a few may pop-up this
morning as the atmosphere is unstable and with the lift from the
front there will not be a problem initiating convection. Only a
marginal risk of severe winds with these thunderstorms. Expecting
generally 30 to 50 mph gusts with some of the thunderstorms. Even
with the precipitable water values above the 75% average for this
time of year, think the storms will continue to move along the
front and the front will continue to move--so unless a storm
anchors in place--flooding is not a major concern.

On Tuesday, expect the front to be south of Memphis and
Interstate-40. So the southern half of forecast area may still see
thunderstorms on Tuesday into early Wednesday. Then drier
continues as a surface high builds into the area. Until the
weekend, when another frontal system moves into the area. Models
not in agreement on location or timing of this frontal system.

Temperatures today will be cooler today and the rest of the week,
with highs typically in the 80s to low 90s. Some of the southern
areas in the Mid-South may see heat index values around 100 as
the dew points will remain high today (in the mid- 70s), however,
as the front moves south the dew points will begin to drop and by
mid-week the northern areas will have dew points in the 50s.
Southern areas will have dew points in the 60s.
TLSJr

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF Set

VFR conditions are expected for the most part over the next 24
hours. The exception will be underneath TSRAS. Showers and
Thunderstorms are rapidly developing east of the Mississippi River
at this time. Expect activity to be numerous to widespread after
20Z ahead of a cold front. Front should be south of the CWA by
01-02Z. Light W winds will switch to the NE behind the front.
Speeds could be gusty initially before dying off during the
overnight period. Expect NE winds of 8-10 KTS after 15-16Z.

KRM

&&

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1033 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-281745-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
1033 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MIDSOUTH TODAY. THE PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCED LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

PWB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1213 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

MSZ014>016-271800-
LEE MS-PONTOTOC MS-UNION MS-
1213 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 100 PM CDT FOR...

LEE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
EASTERN PONTOTOC COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...

AT 1213 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING WINDS AT LEAST 40
MPH WAS LOCATED OVER FURRS...OR NEAR PONTOTOC...MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN LEE...EASTERN PONTOTOC AND SOUTHEASTERN UNION COUNTIES
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3410 8916 3441 8900 3441 8855 3410 8857
TIME...MOT...LOC 1713Z 269DEG 35KT 3422 8892