Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Memphis, TN

534 
WWUS54 KMEG 270331
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1031 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

ARC075-121-270340-
/O.EXP.KMEG.SV.W.0125.000000T0000Z-160627T0330Z/
LAWRENCE AR-RANDOLPH AR-
1031 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE AND
SOUTHWESTERN RANDOLPH COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER GUSTY
WINDS AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE STILL POSSIBLE
WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM. PLEASE STAY INDOORS WHILE LIGHTNING IS STILL
NEARBY.

LAT...LON 3623 9135 3623 9133 3624 9133 3624 9126
      3632 9126 3629 9093 3601 9104 3613 9135
TIME...MOT...LOC 0330Z 287DEG 34KT 3621 9126 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
711 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated for Heat Advisory cancellation and to adjust clouds and
POPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Heat indices have dropped below 105F in the advised
area...therefore the heat advisory was allowed to expire.

Short term models showing scattered convection across Missouri
slowly dissipating this evening...with a storm or two potentially
reaching the far northwest Midsouth counties. In addition...
isolated activity may continue to pop-up further south from
lingering outflow boundaries. Better rain chances for the area
will arrive north of I-40 well after midnight and tomorrow as a
weak front drops south. Have adjusted the overnight rain chances
and cloud cover accordingly.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 641 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016/

UPDATE...

Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016/

The temperature at Memphis International reached 97 degrees again
earlier today before a gust front, associated with thunderstorms
that formed over NE Arkansas and moved into West Tennessee, moved
through Shelby County causing temperatures to quickly decrease
about 10 degrees. These thunderstorms subsided just before they
reached the airport, so barring another pop up storm, Memphis will
remain at 0.60" of rainfall so far through the month of June for
at least one more day. These storms and gust front have provided
relief from the oppressive heat today in the most of the counties
along and north of Interstate 40. However, oppressive temperatures
still exist further east in counties in NE Mississippi and
counties in Tennessee along the Tennessee River. A high
temperature of 100 later today in Tupelo is not out of the realm
of possibilities.

More thunderstorms have formed just west of the Mid-South in
Arkansas. Expect these thunderstorms to move into the MEG CWA
as more showers and thunderstorms form ahead of a surface front
that currently stretches from the Great Lakes to the Southern
Plains continues to approach the Mid-South. The best chances of
rain and storms overnight will be in the western portions of the
Mid-South. The Mid-South will see its best chances of widespread
precipitation in some time tomorrow as the aforementioned front
continues to approach the region. Storms will form ahead and along
the front as it begins to slowly make its way through the Mid-
South during the day tomorrow. Strong storms will be possible
throughout the Mid-South tomorrow but there's more confidence in
strong storms occurring in NE Mississippi tomorrow afternoon
where the atmosphere will have more time to destabilize ahead of
the front. MUCAPE values in this area will range from 2500-3500
j/kg with 0-3 km lapse rates ranging from 7.5 to 8.5 C/km. Some
limiting factors include the lack of shear and -20 degree
temperatures existing at 28,000 ft and above in the atmosphere.
The main threat with any storms tomorrow will be severe winds and
small hail. Flash flooding will also be a threat.

Rain chances will exist through Monday and early Tuesday as the
slow moving front continues to slowly progress through the
region. Added slight chances of showers on Tuesday night to
account for any showers that may form along a secondary front that
will push through. At this point, a heat advisory is not likely
for tomorrow but temperatures and dewpoints could surge ahead of
the front in the eastern portions of the Mid-South resulting in
heat index readings near advisory criteria. Much cooler and drier
air will begin to filter into the Mid-South behind the front. A
steep stagnant upper level high centered over the desert southwest
will keep our region under upper level northwest flow throughout
the upcoming week. Models are in very good agreement of an upper
level disturbance embedded in NW flow aloft will increase rain
chances for the upcoming 4th of July Weekend. However, due to the
unreliability of models 5-8 days out, I wouldn't start cancelingBBQ's
just yet.

JPM3

&&

.AVIATION...

00z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions should prevail through Monday morning with only
isolated convection possible this evening near KTUP and KJBR. Any
evening convection should diminish leaving mostly clear skies
overnight. Winds should remain light tonight as well.

Light west winds should develop Monday morning ahead of a slow
moving cold front approaching from the north. Isolated convection
will be possible ahead of this front in the morning...becoming
more concentrated in coverage by late morning into Monday
afternoon. Tempos for convection have been added along with MVFR
cigs/vsbys at all sites. Gusty winds will be be possible in any
convection otherwise expect winds to become northerly behind the
frontal passage/convective outflow Monday afternoon.

JLH

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
656 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-280200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
656 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

JAB