Alert archive / Tennessee / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

May 25, 2016Shelby County, Tennessee; Crittenden County, Arkansas

NWS Memphis, TN issued this special weather statement at May 25, 2016, 2:49 PM CDT for Shelby County, Tennessee; Crittenden County, Arkansas. It was in force for 41 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 25, 2016, 2:49 PM CDT (19:49 UTC)
Expired: May 25, 2016, 3:30 PM CDT
In force: 41 min
Issued by: NWS Memphis, TN

Counties Crittenden County, AR, Shelby County, TN

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KBYH), launched 12:00Z, 7.8 hours before the alert went out and 44 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 865 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -217 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 778 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 162 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 133 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at May 25, 12:42 PM CDT, 2 hours 7 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 25, 12:42 PM CDT, 2 hours 7 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1242 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated to add 18z aviation discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 945 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

UPDATE...
Adjusted pops based on radar and current observations. East
Arkansas may struggle to climb into the lower 80s due to cloud
cover and rainfall. Northeast Mississippi may approach 90 degrees
this afternoon. High resolution short term model guidance isn't as
bullish with redevelopment of thunderstorms this afternoon...but
confidence is not high that we will be rain free after the ongoing
batch. In fact storms in West Arkansas suggest otherwise. New
Zones already sent.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 640 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

Skies are partly cloudy across much of the forecast area early
this morning with temperatures mainly in the 60s. There is
currently no rain over the forecast area but an area of
thunderstorms is moving across eastern Oklahoma and into western
Arkansas. These thunderstorms develop Tuesday night ahead of a
nearly stationary boundary which extends from eastern South Dakota
through extreme eastern Colorado and into eastern New Mexico.
These thunderstorms should continue to move east this morning and
eventually make their way into the forecast area. Temperatures
will remain on the warm side today with highs in the mid to upper
80s.

By tonight...more thunderstorms should develop just ahead of the
front and start to move east. Thunderstorm coverage over the
forecast area will be less than during the day but can't rule out
isolated thunderstorms developing during the evening. Temperatures
will remain warm with lows Thursday morning in the mid 60s to
lower 70s.

Thursday looks to be somewhat similar to today as what remains of
the thunderstorms that develop tonight make their way into the
forecast area. Temperatures will also be similar to today with
highs in the mid to upper 80s. Models show a better chance of
thunderstorms developing near the forecast area Thursday night and
Friday as the frontal boundary moves a little further east.

With the frontal boundary remaining well west of the forecast area
there is not much chance of widespread severe weather for today
through Friday. An isolated severe thunderstorm is not out of the
question but the key word here is isolated.

During the holiday weekend, little change in the weather pattern
is expected as the frontal boundary will remain over the central
and southern plains. This will mean a chance of thunderstorms
during the day from Saturday through Tuesday. It does appear that
there will be mainly dry weather during the evening and overnight
hours although an isolated thunderstorm can't be ruled out.
Temperatures will remain warm during the holiday weekend with
highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF cycle

VFR conditions expected to prevail for most of the period except
for a short period at MEM early this afternoon, at TUP Thursday
morning, and in thunderstorms. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible at MEM, JBR, MKL this afternoon and
possibly again on Thursday. South winds between 8-11 kts with a
few gusts to 18 kts this afternoon will become light tonight and
increase to 7-9 kts on Thursday.

CJC
&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous weather outlook, May 25, 2:46 PM CDT, 3 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
246 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-262200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
246 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE HIS EVENING...MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ISOLATES STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 25, 2:49 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
249 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

ARZ028-035-036-048-049-MSZ001-002-007-TNZ049-088-252030-
MISSISSIPPI AR-ST. FRANCIS AR-CRITTENDEN AR-CROSS AR-LEE AR-
TUNICA MS-MARSHALL MS-DESOTO MS-TIPTON TN-SHELBY TN-
249 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 330 PM CDT FOR...

SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN ST. FRANCIS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN CROSS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN LEE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN TUNICA COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHERN DESOTO COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHWESTERN TIPTON COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...
SHELBY COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...

AT 248 PM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING WINDS
AROUND 40 MPH WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BASSETT
TO JERICHO TO NEAR MADISON...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEASTERN ST. FRANCIS...
CRITTENDEN...SOUTHEASTERN CROSS...NORTHEASTERN LEE...NORTHEASTERN
TUNICA...NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL...NORTHERN DESOTO...SOUTHWESTERN
TIPTON AND SHELBY COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3505 9079 3529 9033 3551 9009 3538 8964
      3501 8967 3481 9027
TIME...MOT...LOC 1948Z 292DEG 36KT 3550 9006 3527 9026 3505 9075

The office that day

Everything else NWS Memphis, TN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 25, 3:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Fayette, Shelby	46 min
May 25, 4:02 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Crockett	28 min
May 25, 4:04 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Fayette, Hardeman	19 min
May 25, 4:09 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MEG	Fayette, Shelby	3 hr
May 25, 4:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Benton, Henry	14 min
May 25, 4:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Coahoma, Panola, Quitman	16 min
May 25, 4:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Marshall, Tate	38 min
May 25, 5:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Benton, Marshall, Tippah, Union	40 min
May 25, 2:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Crittenden, Cross, Poinsett	17 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Tennessee, 2016 Special Weather Statements in Arkansas, 2016 Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.