Flash Flood Warning 77, NWS Memphis, TN

005 
WGUS74 KMEG 252247
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
547 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

MSC033-093-TNC047-157-252256-
/O.CAN.KMEG.FF.W.0077.000000T0000Z-160526T0015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARSHALL MS-DESOTO MS-FAYETTE TN-SHELBY TN-
547 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL...NORTHERN
DESOTO...SOUTHWESTERN FAYETTE AND SOUTHERN SHELBY COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...

FLOOD WATERS ARE RECEDING...AND ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE A
THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. PLEASE CONTINUE TO HEED ANY ROAD
CLOSURES.

LAT...LON 3492 9024 3495 9025 3499 9031 3503 9030
      3504 9028 3503 9021 3504 9019 3512 9018
      3514 9014 3512 9009 3513 9007 3515 9007
      3517 9011 3520 9011 3523 8958 3485 8958
      3487 9031

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
323 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms are ongoing across the MidSouth...focused along an
outflow boundary from storms in northeast Arkansas earlier today.
Expect these storms to gradually shift to the Southeast...likely
maintaining their strength through sunset...then gradually
weakening. Locally heavy rain...up to an inch per hour could
result in flooding. Otherwise...sub severe hail and wind up to 45
mph is possible.

Nothing has really changed across the MidSouth over the last 36
hour or longer...and nothing is really expected over the next two
days or so. Surface high pressure will remain centered along or
just off the Southeastern Coast of the US with a surface low over
the Plains. Both features will gradually shift to the East.
aloft...we will transition from weak Southwest flow to only
slightly stronger South or SSW flow. Dew points will remain in the
upper 60s to low 70s resulting in enhanced afternoon instability.
The wildcard will continue to be the amount of sunshine across the
MidSouth. Any breaks in the cloud cover can set up thermal
boundaries that act as a focus for thunderstorm development...and
obviously would maximize instability.

Friday...a broad trough will shift across the central plains. A
weak shortwave may attain a negative tilt Friday afternoon
shifting across the Mississippi River late Friday. This will
likely be our highest chance of precipitation...and maybe the
greatest threat for severe storms. However...instability may not
be maximized when the dynamic energy swings out of the plains
Friday night. Will maintain a low confidence for strong storms in
the HWO.

Highs for the remainder of the week should be mostly in the
80s...although cloud cover could keep temperatures a bit cooler if
there are few or no breaks.

Rain chances should diminish over the weekend as the midlevel
trough shifts off to the East and Southwest flow returns to the
MidSouth. Weak surface high will build across the area...and a
weak shortwave ridge will shift out of the plains Sunday boosting
temperatures a bit.

Weak...generally zonal flow is expected early next week. Expect
warm temperatures. Highs could approach 90 degrees. Only low
chance to slight chance thunderstorm coverage is expected.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF cycle

VFR conditions expected to prevail for most of the period except
for a short period at MEM early this afternoon, at TUP Thursday
morning, and in thunderstorms. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible at MEM, JBR, MKL this afternoon and
possibly again on Thursday. South winds between 8-11 kts with a
few gusts to 18 kts this afternoon will become light tonight and
increase to 7-9 kts on Thursday.

CJC

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
246 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-262200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
246 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE HIS EVENING...MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ISOLATES STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
249 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

ARZ028-035-036-048-049-MSZ001-002-007-TNZ049-088-252030-
MISSISSIPPI AR-ST. FRANCIS AR-CRITTENDEN AR-CROSS AR-LEE AR-
TUNICA MS-MARSHALL MS-DESOTO MS-TIPTON TN-SHELBY TN-
249 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 330 PM CDT FOR...

SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN ST. FRANCIS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN CROSS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN LEE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN TUNICA COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHERN DESOTO COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHWESTERN TIPTON COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...
SHELBY COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...

AT 248 PM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING WINDS
AROUND 40 MPH WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BASSETT
TO JERICHO TO NEAR MADISON...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEASTERN ST. FRANCIS...
CRITTENDEN...SOUTHEASTERN CROSS...NORTHEASTERN LEE...NORTHEASTERN
TUNICA...NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL...NORTHERN DESOTO...SOUTHWESTERN
TIPTON AND SHELBY COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3505 9079 3529 9033 3551 9009 3538 8964
      3501 8967 3481 9027
TIME...MOT...LOC 1948Z 292DEG 36KT 3550 9006 3527 9026 3505 9075

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
402 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

TNZ020-021-051-052-252130-
CARROLL TN-MADISON TN-GIBSON TN-CROCKETT TN-
402 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 430 PM CDT FOR...

SOUTHWESTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...
NORTH CENTRAL MADISON COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...
SOUTHERN GIBSON COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...
SOUTHEASTERN CROCKETT COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...

AT 402 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR
LARGER AND WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED NEAR ALAMO...OR 8 MILES
WEST OF HUMBOLDT...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN CARROLL...NORTH CENTRAL MADISON...SOUTHERN
GIBSON AND SOUTHEASTERN CROCKETT COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3583 8856 3582 8857 3582 8858 3580 8860
      3571 8910 3588 8917 3607 8863 3583 8854
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 252DEG 36KT 3582 8905