Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1113 AM CST SAT JAN 9 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CST SAT JAN 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS/WSR-88D VAD WIND
PROFILES THIS MORNING PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE A SURFACE
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR LITTLE ROCK. AS OF 9 AM CST...TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE MID SOUTH
WITH UPPER 40S ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.

LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS STILL INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND PERHAPS A FEW BECOMING
STRONG/SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING HAIL FROM COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED.

WILL ADJUST ANY ELEMENTS AS NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE AT THIS
TIME.

CJC

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LOW IS PIVOTING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THIS MORNING WITH A DEVELOPING 1006 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR
THE ARKLATEX. THE LEADING BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDSOUTH. STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 C/KM EXIST AHEAD OF THE LINE AND AS A RESULT
SOME STORMS ARE GENERATING SOME SMALL HAIL. TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THIS BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
BREAK IN ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS INITIAL BAND THIS MORNING. HOWEVER
EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW AND VERY COLD TEMPS
ALOFT MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO
MEMPHIS BY 18Z AND THEN TO WESTERN KY BY 00Z. AREAS TO THE SE OF
THE SURFACE LOW TRACK WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE A LITTLE
HIGHER WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SEVERE STORM THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SE PARTS OF WEST TENNESSEE
AND MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI.

THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND ARCTIC AIR RUSHES IN.
PRECIPITATION WILL POSSIBLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOCATIONS ALONG THE
MO/KY BORDERS STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SNOWFLAKES. A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY SURFACES MAY OCCUR FROM PARTS OF EXTREME NE
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL TO NW TENNESSEE. TEMPS BY MORNING
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 20S WITH A BRISK NW WIND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES. SUNDAY
WILL BE COLD WITH BRISK NW WINDS CONTINUING. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN
THE 30S. WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK THE MODELS ARE IN SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT.
THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH
A WARMER AND WETTER SOLUTION BY FRIDAY. THE ECMWF SKIRTS A SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY THEN DRY AND COLD BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE RESULTANT FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

SJM

.AVIATION...

A RAIN SHIELD WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAS BEEN MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. SOME MVFR CIGS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED BUT THEY ARE SPORADIC IN NATURE. STILL EXPECT A BAND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
AND PUSH THROUGH MKL AND TUP...EXITING THE AREA BY 00Z. SOME RA/SN
MIX IS ALSO POSSIBLE BUT THIS SHOULD NOT REDUCE VISIBILITIES.
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KTS BEHIND
THE EXITING SURFACE LOW OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY
TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z ON SUNDAY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
400 AM CST SAT JAN 9 2016

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-101200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
400 AM CST SAT JAN 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MODERATE RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IN ADDITION...MAJOR RIVER FLOODING IS
OCCURRING ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR OSCEOLA ARKANSAS. SUCH
RIVER FLOODING MAY CAUSE DAMAGE TO PROPERTY ON AND AROUND THE
RIVERS AND RELATED TRIBUTARIES. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR THE LATEST RIVER
FLOODING INFORMATION.

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH
AND EAST OF A BATESVILLE MISSISSIPPI TO LEXINGTON TENNESSEE LINE.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MODERATE TO MAJOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PARTS OF THE
MAIN STEM OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR THE LATEST RIVER FLOODING
INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

SJM

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
329 PM CST SAT JAN 9 2016

MSZ006-016-017-024-092215-
TISHOMINGO MS-LEE MS-ITAWAMBA MS-MONROE MS-
329 PM CST SAT JAN 9 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL UNTIL 415 PM CST FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN TISHOMINGO COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHEASTERN LEE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
ITAWAMBA COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
NORTH CENTRAL MONROE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...

AT 329 PM CST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR
LARGER AND WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED OVER NETTLETON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN TISHOMINGO...SOUTHEASTERN LEE...ITAWAMBA AND
NORTH CENTRAL MONROE COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3415 8820 3396 8857 3417 8870 3457 8814
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 236DEG 42KT 3413 8860